Analysis: 3 reasons to respect Simplification in Holy Bull Stakes

One name who stands out on the probables list in the Grade 2, $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream on Saturday is Simplification, a 3-year-old son of Not This Time. He is trained by Antonio Sano for owner Tami Bobo and seeks to pick up his second stakes victory and third overall win. 

Simplification is one to respect in the Holy Bull for three reasons. First of all, he knows how to dominate lesser competition. Second, he runs in a professional manner. The third factor is his pedigree, which is filled with stamina influences on the bottom side. 

In his second start, Simplification devastated the competition in a local maiden race against Florida-breds last October. He won by a smashing 16 3/4 lengths with a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. For an inexperienced 2-year-old in October, a 99 on TimeformUS is a solid speed figure.

Two races later in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream on Jan. 1, Simplification won by “only” four lengths. Regardless, his TimeformUS Speed Figure improved by seven points to a 106 and he earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure.

What about Simplification’s third-place finish in a Nov. 13 optional claimer? Just cross the race out. Young, developing horses sometimes throw clunkers. On that same note, forget about Simplification’s fifth in his career debut as well. Many horses use their first start as a learning experience and handicappers cannot use the same standards for those races.

Here are some positive points about the Mucho Macho Man win.

For one, Simplification won easily under mostly his own power. Watch him on the turn in the replay below. Jockey Javier Castellano sits quietly on Simplification with confidence and sees no need to use the whip.

In the stretch run, Simplification then drew clear under mild urging.

Also glance at the margins between each horse.

After the four lengths from Simplification to Strike Hard in second came another 7 1/4 lengths from Strike Hard to Mr Rum Runner in third. Graphic Detail in fourth finished a neck behind Mr Rum Runner and another 6 1/4 lengths separated Graphic Detail and Sport Pepper in fifth. Sport Pepper beat Skippylongstocking in last by only a nose.

Overall, 17 3/4 lengths separated the six-horse field, which is great considering the field size. Spaced-out margins usually equal a fast race.

Besides the margins, pay attention to how Simplification ran in the Mucho Macho Man. He switched leads at the right time and kept a straight line in the stretch. This is a colt who knows how to keep his concentration. 

A proper lead switch and ability to run in a straight line might sound like small reasons to become excited about a horse, but those factors matter when searching for a Kentucky Derby horse. If a horse cannot switch leads properly, he might become more fatigued stretching out. He might lose a length or two if not able to keep a straight line in the stretch run. 

Now to discuss Simplification's pedigree.

Not This Time has been a great sire for both sprinting and routes. It likely depends on who breeds with him, but most of his progeny handle stretching out. For example, his leading money earner last year, Yes This Time, won the nine-furlong Kent Stakes (G3) on turf. A current example is Epicenter. He won the Gun Runner Stakes and ran second in the Lecomte Stakes (G3).

Simplification’s dam side shows a connection to a famous filly who won $3.9 million in her excellent career under Todd Pletcher.  

His second dam is Ballado’s Halo, who is a full sister to the multiple Grade 1 winning router Ashado. Ashado’s career highlights include winning the 2004 Kentucky Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She also won the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) when it was a 1 1/4-mile race.   

Ballado’s Halo is also a full sister to Sunriver, the third-place finisher in the 2006 Belmont Stakes. He would go on to win the 2007 Bowling Green Handicap (G2) at 1 3/8 miles and the 1 1/2-mile Hollywood Turf Cup (G1) to close out a successful career as mostly a turf router.

On paper, Simplification is supposed to handle 1 1/16 miles in the Holy Bull. If he is talented enough to make the Kentucky Derby, 10 furlongs will not pose a problem either. The stamina is in his blood.

As a pacesetter, Simplification figures to enjoy Gulfstream’s dirt course as well, which is constantly labeled as more speed-favoring than usual.  

Take a long look at Simplification if he shows up in the entries for the Holy Bull. He owns an excellent combination of speed, talent and stamina. This is the type of horse who could become a major player on the road to the Kentucky Derby.