Analysis: 3 reasons not to bet Hidden Scroll at Turfway

Nearly two years after a smashing 14-length maiden win over slop at Gulfstream, Hidden Scroll still generates discussion whenever he starts. His latest return comes on Saturday at Turfway Park, when he makes his debut on synthetic in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claiming race.

Unfortunately for supporters, Hidden Scroll is a bad bet once again for three reasons: his lack of synthetic experience, unideal distance and questionable value as a familiar horse that still carries a following today.

Hidden Scroll’s overall record is 11: 3-0-1, with eight of those starts on dirt and three on turf. Hidden Scroll won all three of his wins on dirt, which is not a great sign for his synthetic hopes. For the most part, turf horses transfer their best form to synthetic more easily than dirt horses.

Although Hidden Scroll might end up liking Turfway, supporters are only guessing Hidden Scroll likes synthetic. No one knows for sure until he gives it a shot.

As for 6 1/2 furlongs not being ideal, this is harder to explain because he owns two sprint wins. At the beginning of the year, Hidden Scroll won a six-furlong Oaklawn allowance race, and he took a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream in March 2020.

But Hidden Scroll’s two lifetime best efforts came on dirt as a 3-year-old in route races.

In January 2019, Hidden Scroll broke his maiden in eye-opening fashion in a one-mile Gulfstream maiden race. After setting an uncontested early pace, he drew clear over the slop to win by 14 lengths with a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Most horses use their career debut as a learning experience, but Hidden Scroll was seemingly ahead. 

In Hidden Scroll’s second lifetime start, the connections took a shot at the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), also at Gulfstream. Hidden Scroll set a wicked fast pace with 22.80, 45.69 and 1:10.42 fractions before understandably fading late and losing by three lengths. On TimeformUS, those three fractions translated into pace figures of 166, 166 and 140.

For the fourth-place finish, Hidden Scroll earned a career-best 120 on TimeformUS. The fact that he hung around in the stretch while his closest pursuer, Gladiator King, folded to last by 33 lengths is notable.

Afterward, Hidden Scroll finished a disappointing sixth in the Florida Derby (G1), but his connections made a mistake in trying to rate him as well. 

Even today, the 119 from his maiden romp and 120 from the 2019 Fountain of Youth still represent Hidden Scroll’s best TimeformUS Speed Figures. In contrast, his two sprint wins resulted in a 112 and 100.  

The problem with sprint races is that Hidden Scroll wants the lead. Because sprint races are faster paced than routes, it is harder for Hidden Scroll to secure the lead if the race contains true sprinters with early speed.

In his favor this week, the only other speed horse in this Turfway race is Arareco Lake. Perhaps Hidden Scroll reaches the front before he does. But there is always a chance the connections, including his current trainer Brad Cox, decide to try rating tactics with Hidden Scroll again.

Hidden Scroll rated in eighth before closing the gap in his six-furlong allowance race at Oaklawn this year. The conservative tactics resulted in a 2 1/4-length win that lacked the punch of his previous wins.

Overall, Hidden Scroll looks more comfortable with the lead. He is not guaranteed to get it on Saturday or to handle the surface, which gives him two strikes.

Besides all that, Hidden Scroll remains too popular to bet. Because Hidden Scroll had a fast start to his career and still generates discussion every time he runs, he represents almost an automatic underlay. Remember, bettors love familiar horses even if the form has not been solid for a while. Dennis' Moment is one active reminder of this pattern.

Is there a viable alternative or two to Hidden Scroll in this Turfway race?

Visitant is an obvious win contender based on his past record on this course. This horse loves Turfway Park, with a 4: 3-0-1 record here. Most important, one of those wins came in a local 6 1/2-furlong optional claiming sprint in March.

Because Visitant enters off a 175-day layoff, there is some hesitation in using him, although he remains one to include in multi-race wagers.

Another entrant who likes this track is Joker On Jack, who owns a 2-for-2 record at Turfway. One year ago, Joker On Jack won a local 6 1/2-furlong allowance race on this course, giving him the right experience here.

Unfortunately, Joker On Jack lost all three starts this year. With that said, his fourth-place finish in the Jacques Cartier Stakes (G3) at Woodbine is not terrible. Returning to a favorite racetrack might wake up Joker On Jack for trainer Wesley Ward, who has won at an impressive 32 percent clip in the last year at Turfway according to TimeformUS.

For win or place bet purposes, Joker On Jack is the selection.