Americans seem overmatched on turf in Breeders’ Cup

It seems almost impossible to find an American turf horse who can stand up to the Europeans in the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland on Nov. 4 and 5. This year the Americans lack the type of stars who can handle the foreigners in the three races for older turf routers.

Here is a short breakdown of how the Breeders’ Cup Mile, Filly & Mare Turf and Turf are shaping up. Unless some of the expected foreigners do not show, the Americans are in deep waters in the older turf races.

Mile

Europeans won this race three times in the last five years with Expert Eye in 2018, Order of Australia in 2020 and Space Blues in 2021.

Assuming Modern Games makes the overseas trip, the Europeans will likely win a fourth edition of the Mile since 2017. Given Modern Games’ dominating win in the Woodbine Mile (G1) in September and runner-up finish to the European star Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes (G1), he is too good to lose, based on class and overall speed.

Here is Modern Games winning the Woodbine Mile.

His acceleration in the stretch is impressive.

Although Annapolis is a rising star in this division, he needs to take one more step forward off his win in the Keeneland Turf Mile (G1) to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile against a talented European such as Modern Games.

Other Americans, such as Smooth Like Strait, Ivar and Casa Creed, are good horses who also cannot measure up to a top foreign talent.

Filly & Mare Turf

Europeans won this race three times in the last five years with Wuheida in 2017, Iridessa in 2019 and Audarya in 2020. Last year, the Japanese took this race with Loves Only You, leaving the American-based runners with only one win in the time period with the former European Sistercharlie in 2018.

This year, the American-based fillies and mares appear weak again with runners such as War Like Goddess, Regal Glory, In Italian and Virginia Joy leading the domestic names on the HRN Stakes Tracker list.

Of the Europeans on the possibles list, Nashwa, Pearls Galore and Dreamloper are three runners who show evidence of respectable efforts in high-class races. Nashwa ran second in the Prix de I’Opera (G1) in her most recent start, Dreamloper won the Prix de Moulin de Longchamp (G1) and Pearls Galore won the Matron Stakes (G1).

Turf

Europeans won four of the last five editions of the Turf with Talismanic in 2017, Enable in 2018, Tarnawa in 2020 and Yibir in 2021. The American Bricks and Mortar gave the lone exception to the overseas trend with his win in 2019.

Just from glancing at the sheer number of Europeans on the possibles list this year, it seems logical to conclude they will take another edition of the Turf unless the few Americans listed somehow change overnight. 

The bigger American names listed include War Like Goddess, who defeated males in the Joe Hirsch Classic (G1), Channel Maker and Gufo. Gufo ran a dismal seventh in the Joe Hirsch and Channel Maker finished 10th in the Sword Dancer Invitational (G1), although both are capable of better. War Like Goddess beat males in the Joe Hirsch, although she did not give the impression of dominating them. 

As for the Europeans, the three names that stand out based on class are Vadeni, Desert Crown and Pyledriver. Vadeni ran second in the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe (G1), which is the most important race in Europe. Desert Crown took the Epsom Derby (G1) earlier in the year. Pyledriver won the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1). There are many more Europeans listed as possible beyond those three classy runners, making it almost look like a stakes race taking place overseas.

If an American wins this race, it will come as a surprise if only because of the large numbers advantage the Europeans hold in terms of possible entries.

Studying all the possible foreigners will take plenty of time. Thankfully, replays of the important European races can be found on YouTube. Plus make use of foreign websites such as Racing Post and Timeform to further study the shippers.