Zenyatta: See when to back Adare Manor, when to oppose

Adare Manor brings her speed and a four-race win streak into the Grade 2, $200,000 Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita on Sunday. While the daughter of Uncle Mo has shined in some races, she gives the impression of another Bob Baffert-trained runner who needs the lead to give her best.

Except for one race, Adare Manor’s current campaign displays a pattern where she dominates the field after enjoying an uncontested lead and gives a lesser effort in the times where she fails to secure the lead.

When Adare Manor led from start to finish in a local optional claiming race on March 31, she met a challenge from Big Switch on the turn and kept finding more in the stretch for a hard-fought win by only a head. On the plus side, both runners were 5 1/2 lengths clear of Shared Future in third.

Perhaps Big Switch gave a big performance in that race, although she did not back up the quality of the effort in her two races afterwards. 

In the other two times Adare Manor led uncontested this year, she won by a clear margin after opening up in the stretch. For example, Adare Manor led without a challenge in the local Santa Maria Stakes (G2) in April and won by a widening 4 3/4 lengths. She also led uncontested in the Santa Margarita Stakes (G2) in June and won by a similar margin. 

But when Adare Manor made use of a tracking style in Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (G1) at Del Mar, she did not resemble the filly from before. Adare Manor still won the race, but this time she had to struggle to prevail.

Most notably, Adare Manor was already under a ride on the far turn to pass the pacesetter Elm Drive, while Desert Dawn began to move outside of them and set herself up to rally towards those two opponents.

Adare Manor finally went by Elm Drive in a gradual manner in the stretch run, but Desert Dawn also made it close with her late move towards the wire and only lost by one length in an exciting race.

On speed figures, Adare Manor still ran the same number on TimeformUS in the Clement L. Hirsch as she did in the Santa Margarita, but from a visual standpoint Adare Manor did not resemble the same runner. She gave the impression of a slower filly who had to struggle. 

Adare Manor knows how to crush the field with the lead, as she also did last year when she broke her maiden by 12 lengths and won the local Las Virgenes Stakes G3) by 13 lengths. When Adare Manor has to use a pressing or stalking style though, she loses that spark, even if she wins.

In the Zenyatta Stakes on Sunday, Adare Manor faces only three other fillies and another easy pace scenario where she will probably secure an uncontested lead. Micro Share might apply some pressure from post no. 2. On paper though, Micro Share does not own the same kind of speed as Adare Manor and will most likely get outfooted early by the classier filly.

Desert Dawn starts from post no. 3, and this time she will need to sit closer within two or three lengths of Adare Manor if she wants to scare her again.

Window Shopping in post no. 4 shows an impressive 16 1/2-length win on this course and also won the Summertime Oaks (G2) in June over Ancient Peace. But she runs as a closer and does not get any pace here.

If there was just a little more speed present in this race, Window Shopping might look like an interesting alternative as a filly with upside.

Keep Adare Manor's need for the lead in mind when she competes in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff on this course in November. Adare Manor might find securing the lead tougher against speedy fillies from the east.  

But in this race, in all likelihood Adare Manor will secure the lead and win once again at low odds. Rather than attempt to get too cute in this race as a horse player, it makes more sense to single the Baffert filly this time in multi-race wagers and try to beat her in the Breeders' Cup.