Horse of the year: Here are 5 early championship candidates

When Arcangelo took the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga last weekend, the son of Arrogate won his second Grade 1 of the year and put himself in position to take horse of the year honors. With that said, the competition for the highest award has not ended yet, and another horse might emerge after the Breeders’ Cup as the one most worthy of the title. 

Here is a list of potential Horse of the Year candidates and the scenarios that could put them over the top and result in the highest award.

Arcangelo

With the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes wins on record, Arcangelo’s path to horse of the year became simple. If he captures the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the win will push him over the top and give him an almost unbeatable hand. He does not even need Forte or Mage to show up. 

Arcangelo also could arguably win the award with just the Belmont and Travers wins, depending on how the other candidates fare in the Breeders’ Cup and where Arcangelo finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. If he finishes a strong second, voters will overlook the loss. 

But if Arcangelo wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic, then he probably clinches the title. Wins in the Belmont, Travers and Breeders’ Cup Classic would give Arcangelo an excellent hand in Eclipse Award voting and the horse of the year title almost certainly would go to him. 

Mage

Mage’s credibility has taken a hit lately with a three-race losing streak, including a last-place finish in the Travers Stakes. Nevertheless, Mage won the Kentucky Derby, the most important 3-year-old race out there, and could bounce back in the Breeders’ Cup.

If Mage re-emerged in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and won the race over Arcangelo and Forte, then he might attract enough votes to win.

However, the three-race losing streak and last-place finish in the Travers look ugly enough that even the Classic win would not automatically result in voters forgiving him. In the scenario of Mage winning the Classic, Arcangelo still would own two Grade 1 wins with fewer losses. 

Regardless, Mage is not out of the picture yet. 

Forte

Similar to Mage, Forte would need to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic over Arcangelo and Mage to hold a chance at horse of the year.

Unlike Mage, Forte’s other major victory came on the Derby trail in April in the Florida Derby (G1). The combination of the Florida Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic might not push him past Arcangelo in final voting, but it at least will put him on the ballot and give him a shot. 

Forte beat Mage in the Florida Derby, which gives him past credibility. He also put in a decent effort to run fourth in the Travers, while Mage struggled home in last. Forte's horse of the year chances took a hit with the fourth-place Travers finish, but he is not completely out yet. 

Cody’s Wish

After starting the year with wins in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) and Metropolitan Handicap (G1), Cody’s Wish’s momentum came to a halt with a third-place finish in the Whitney Stakes (G1) at Saratoga on the stretchout to nine furlongs. The connections took a chance in that race with the added distance for Cody's Wish, and it did not pay off.

Nevertheless, Cody’s Wish owns two Grade 1 wins for the year, and he could pick up a third one with the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Depending on how Arcangelo fares in the Classic, the Dirt Mile could put Cody’s Wish back on top. Perhaps Cody’s Wish could even go for the Cigar Mile (G1) to end the campaign with momentum and give him four Grade 1 wins.

Cody’s Wish always has been popular. He just needs one more Grade 1 to put himself in the running, and two more Grade 1s to make an even stronger argument for his claim to the horse of the year title. 

Pretty Mischievous

The lone filly on this list carries a three-race winning streak, all Grade 1s, the Kentucky Oaks, Acorn Stakes and Test Stakes.

In many years, fillies needed to challenge and defeat males at least once to stand a chance at winning horse of the year. But in this kind of year, she might take it with one more Grade 1 against her own gender.

Pretty Mischievous's fourth Grade 1 win this year might come in the Cotillion Stakes or Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She is currently pointing toward the former race. If she won the Cotillion, maybe the connections would skip the latter in order to end 2023 on a high note.

On the other hand, if Pretty Mischievous won the Cotillion and Breeders’ Cup Distaff to finish the campaign, she would own an impressive five Grade 1 wins for the year and perhaps squeak past Arcangelo in votes.