Breeders' Cup: 4 who can beat Meditate in Juvenile Fillies Turf

Meditate enters the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland on Friday with plenty of support behind her as the morning-line favorite and overseas choice, according to United Kingdom-based booking sites. But the race also contains a handful of key American-based runners with talent who can beat Meditate with their best shot.

On paper, Meditate is not a perfect favorite to accept, even at mild odds. Meditate’s career began fast with four straight wins ranging from five furlongs to seven furlongs, but she nearly blew the lead in the last win of the early streak.

Watch the final part of the seven-furlong Alpha Centauri Debutante Stakes (G2) at the Curragh. Meditate opens up by about two lengths in midstretch, but she loses ground fast as Olivia Maralda and Thornbrook almost catch up near the wire.

Meditate still held on by 3/4 of a length, but the late ground loss raises the question of whether she can stretch out any farther than seven furlongs. Then again, maybe Meditate was distracted by something.

In Meditate's next start in the seven-furlong Moyglare Stud Stakes (G1), she started to take control of the race and briefly opened up in the stretch run. But she had a closer named Tahiyra following her outside.

As the pair opened up on the field, Tahiyra came rolling alongside Meditate and easily went by without a fight. In fairness to Meditate, she held second by about four lengths over the third-place Eternal Silence.  

Two weeks after the Moyglare Stud, Meditate cut back in the six-furlong Cheveley Park Stakes (G1) and also lost by 3/4 of a length to Lezoo. If the distance is not a problem, another concern is that the rest of the fillies caught up to Meditate with more distance and experience. Many talented 2-year-olds who need more time to learn catch up later on.

Although Meditate can win the Juvenile Fillies Turf, four key American contenders look promising enough to defeat the favorite.

The first one to discuss is Pleasant Passage, who broke her maiden on Aug. 21 on firm turf at Saratoga as a closer rallying through the rail in mid-stretch. Many young horses cannot move through the rail because they get intimidated, but she managed to get through and hold off Letter of Gold.

Pleasant Passage then won the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct on yielding turf as a front-runner who led through moderate fractions and held off the Chad Brown-trained Free Look late to win by 3/4 of a length. Fellow Juvenile Fillies Turf entry Be Your Best finished 2 3/4 lengths back in third after getting a clear shot at running down the leaders.

But Be Your Best is not one to dismiss after hanging in the stretch run of the Miss Grillo and failing to deliver a closing blow from third.

In her two starts before the Miss Grillo, Be Your Best broke her maiden by 3 1/4 lengths on firm turf at Saratoga on July 31, with Free Look closing slowly for third in the same race. Next, Be Your Best won the P.G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga by 3 3/4 lengths on good turf. As of this writing, no rain is expected in Lexington on Friday, which means Be Your Best’s form might turn around by getting away from yielding turf.

Delight deserves attention too after capturing the local Jessamine Stakes (G2) by a dominant five lengths, which is an impressive margin considering turf races end up in a cluster more often than not.

Trainer Jonathan Thomas and jockey Luis Saez make for a lethal combination, as TimeformUS gives the pair a 100 rating. More specifically, they hit at a 34 percent rate out of 38 tries over the past year.

The fourth American who could win is Xigera, who finished 1 1/2 lengths ahead of Delight as the runner-up in an Aug. 7 Saratoga maiden race. Xigera broke her maiden later in the meet by a clear 5 3/4 lengths.

Xigera’s connections decided to take a shot on dirt in the local Alcibiades Stakes (G1), and she faded to fourth after tracking the pace in second through the early stages. She might turn in a big effort switching back to turf this week.

Because of the large 14-horse field, there are not many wrong directions bettors can go. But it can get expensive fast choosing them all.

In multi-race wagers, I recommend Pleasant Passage, Be Your Best, Delight and Xigera.