Kentucky Derby: 4 horses who might contest the lead

Although the Kentucky Derby pace scenario never truly runs “slow” for the 1 1/4-mile distance, the situation does seem moderate for next month’s run for the roses, even with the Japan shippers factored in.

From reading the probables list, the top speed horses are all versatile types who do not need to go crazy if another horse wants the lead. The lack of pacesetters is bad news for closers, especially if they find themselves at or near the rear of the field for the first half-mile. 

For example, the number of American speed horses who might set the Derby pace can fit on one hand. Here is a discussion below of those few runners, followed by an introduction to the main speed threat from Japan.

Of the Americans with a guaranteed spot in the gate, Verifying and Kingsbarns seem to the main threats from the U.S. to contest the pace, and as suggested above, both of them also can sit off the pacesetter.

In his career debut at Saratoga last August, Verifying set the pace in a six-furlong maiden race. But other than that race, Verifying always seems to travel near the pacesetter as a presser or tracker, minus his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile run where the chart notes indicate a bumping incident that probably derailed him from his usual position. 

With the lack of pacesetters lined up, Verifying might inherit the lead by default. His early TimeformUS Pace Figures for the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) were only 112, 116 and 116, but that probably does not matter. Trainer Brad Cox likely will instruct the rider to secure an upfront position.

Kingsbarns set slow fractions in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on his way to winning by a clear margin in the stretch over a good group of 3-year-olds. But in his career debut at Gulfstream and optional-claiming race at Tampa Bay, Kingsbarns made use of stalking tactics.

The crawling pace in the Louisiana Derby led to sluggish pace figures of 80, 80 and 83, and that is commonly referenced as a reason why Kingsbarns will not travel with the speed in the Kentucky Derby.

But when Kingsbarns won the Tampa Bay optional claimer, he ran initial TimeformUS Pace Figures of 143 and 127 while chasing a fast pace before slowing to a 110. The 143 is one of the higher pace figures in the Derby.

Kingsbarns set a slow pace in the Louisiana Derby, but expect him to adjust to the Kentucky Derby pace scenario and find a spot either contesting the lead or stalking in a close-range position around third, fourth, fifth or sixth. It will come as a surprise if he settles in mid-pack.  

Perhaps one more American who could find himself as part of the Derby pace mix is Confidence Game, who set the pace last November in a Churchill Downs optional claimer while defeating a good field that included two future Derby prep winners in Rocket Can and Hit Show. 

In his next start, Confidence Game ran as more of a presser in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) in January. After posting decent TimeformUS Pace Figures of 125, 138 and 124, Confidence Game ended up fading and finishing third.

Then in the Rebel Stakes (G2), Confidence Game settled into mid-pack before making a nice closing move to win. Despite his position farther back, he still posted high pace figures of 130, 138 and 126. With those figures, Confidence Game could contest the Derby pace.

As for the Japan speed horse Derma Sotogake, he feels like a headscratcher because foreign races do not offer fractions or pace figures. But again, he does not seem like a true “need-the-lead” type.

Derma Sotogake set the pace in the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan before winning in an impressive manner over a questionable field. But in the Saudi Derby (G3), Derma Sotogake ran as a mid-pack closer en route to finishing a good third behind Commissioner King and Havnameltdown. He also made a closing move from mid-pack in the Zen–Nippon Nisai Yushun in his home country last December.

Maybe the connections are asking for more speed from Derma Sotogake to make sure he can compete better against the Americans. At the same time, a repeat of the Summer Is Tomorrow and Crown Pride speed duel and pace meltdown from last year’s Kentucky Derby feels unlikely.

Those are four horses who could set the Derby pace. While one of the closers might overcome a moderate Derby pace and win, this year seems to be one of those years where the pace benefits the front half.