Kentucky Derby 2023: 3 long shots are worth considering

Even when a mega long shot such as Rich Strike does not win Kentucky Derby 2023, on most years the board lights up with one or two with high odds.

For example, when 8-1 Authentic won the delayed version of this race in 2020 over the favorite Tiz the Law in second, the 46-1 long shot Mr. Big News ran third and set up a $655 trifecta with a 50-cent base.

Here are three interesting long shots for this year’s Kentucky Derby, starting off with a runner who lost the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes in a game effort.

Verifying

Given the number of more Derby horses likely to fall under 10-1 already, Verifying probably cannot fit in that area. In overseas sportsbooks, bettors can find this Brad Cox-trained colt from 12-1 to 14-1, and those odds are likely where he will end up on Kentucky Derby day.

Yet, Verifying ran a good second to Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass while fighting back against the talented closer all the way to the wire. He lost by a neck, which means he and Tapit Trice earned the same 99 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form. And Tapit Trice might end up as the second or third choice in the Derby. 

Despite the good effort in a nine-furlong Grade 1 race, Verifying has received a reputation as distance limited because of his sire Justify. But at this point, Verifying shows no distance limitations in his past performances. He ran fourth in the Rebel Stakes (G2) because of traffic problems and not because Justify's blood limited how far he could go. 

Expect Verifying to sit close to the leaders and hang around for longer than expected. With his tactical speed, he will avoid most of the traffic if the jockey places him right off the leader instead of in the pocket.

With a fast Beyer, useful tactical speed and Cox behind him as the trainer, Verifying offers a lot of positives for his double-digit odds.

Hit Show

Yes, Hit Show makes another long-shot list on here. With Cox training Hit Show too, at least bettors get a trustworthy name behind the colt.

After capturing the Withers Stakes (G3) in February by an impressive 5 1/2 lengths, Hit Show lost by a nose to the 59-1 long shot Lord Miles in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) earlier this month. 

In retrospect, Hit Show needed to overcome a difficult post and ended up at least four wide around the first turn. Then on the far turn and into the stretch run, Hit Show had no room to tip out properly with Lord Miles right on his side and intent on keeping Hit Show uncomfortable.

Some bumping also occurred between Dreamlike, Hit Show and Lord Miles, although the stewards did not change the order of finish.   

Hit Show might not win. But with his stamina, he looks good enough to pick off tired horses late and find himself in the same position that Mr. Big News found himself in 2020 when he completed the Derby trifecta.

In other words, Hit Show works as an underneath horse in trifecta and superfecta tickets, especially with his probable odds falling around 25-1.

Disarm

Unlike the two horses above, Steve Asmussen trains Disarm for the familiar Winchell Thoroughbreds. Disarm barely made the Top 20 in Derby points with his third in the Lexington Stakes (G3) last weekend.

Again in retrospect, Disarm might deserve one more chance from bettors after not receiving a fair pace scenario for his closing kick twice in a row.

In the Louisiana Derby (G2), the winner Kingsbarns set crawling fractions of 24.71 seconds, 49.60 and 1:14.69 before powering home to victory. To Disarm’s credit, he made a nice closing move in the stretch to cut into Kingsbarns’ lead and finish second.

Then in the Lexington Stakes (G3) last weekend, the Bob Baffert-trained Arabian Lion set fractions of 24.12, 48.01 and 1:12.48 for the 1 1/16-mile distance, which made it hard for any closer to make an impact.

First Mission won because he laid close on the inside and took advantage of a wide opening when Arabian Lion did not corner the far turn well. Arabian Lion shifted back inside though, and the two of them went to battle as Disarm lost ground to the leading pair in the stretch.

Disarm was too far back in the initial stages to show off his run. In addition, perhaps Asmussen prepared Disarm only enough to hit the board and earn enough points to secure his gate position in the Derby. 

With more pace ahead of him in the Kentucky Derby, Disarm has a shot at emulating Mr. Big News as well. Expect 30-1 or higher on this colt.