Kentucky Derby undercard: 3 races offer value picks

Given the strong fields and the amount of casual money floating around, the Kentucky Derby undercard typically offers a number of opportunities for smarter bettors to cash in. Good horses will go off at higher odds than usual on Saturday at Churchill Downs, which gives it a Breeders’ Cup-like feeling.

Here are three horses to consider betting on the undercard.

Churchill Downs race 3: Allowance optional claiming

Petulante brings a consistent record to this strong one-mile optional claiming race with two wins and two seconds in four overall starts.  

In his most recent start, which was in January, Petulante dead-heated with a good horse named Milliken in a one-mile Gulfstream optional claiming race. Petulante posted a high TimeformUS figure of 113 for his shared winning effort because he did more early work, and Milliken earned a 112.

Milliken won his next start in another Gulfstream optional claimer on March 12 while defeating the improved Cooke Creek by 3/4 of a length.

With the three-month gap since his last start, Petulante gives the impression of a fragile horse. Nevertheless, he always fires and should find himself in a nice spot pressing or stalking the leaders from the outside under Luis Saez.

Win/place: No. 14 Petulante at 7-2 or higher

Churchill Downs race 6: Knicks Go Overnight Stakes

Masqueparade makes his return after a 275-day layoff. When last seen, he put in a strong effort to finish second by two lengths in the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga won by Art Collector, who won the Charles Town Classic (G2) in his next start and took the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) earlier this year.

Now, Masqueparade makes his 5-year-old debut with blinkers back on while retaining the services of a top jockey in Joel Rosario.  

Some of Masqueparade’s stronger races came with blinkers, such as when he won an optional claiming race on this course in May 2021 by 11 3/4 lengths. In his two blinkered starts after that, Masqueparade won the Ohio Derby (G3) narrowly and ran a strong third in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2).

With Masqueparade’s tactical speed, he probably will take up the pocket position right behind the pacesetter, or he might take the lead if no one else wants it.

Zozos looks like a weak favorite at 5-2 after winning a subpar Fair Grounds optional claimer, and Baby Yoda offers no bargain either at 3-1 on the morning line. Although they could win, a short price on either feels unfair.

At his morning-line odds of 6-1, Masqueparade is a value.

Win/place: No. 2 Masqueparade at 9-2 or higher

Churchill Downs race 8: Pat Day Mile (G2)

Despite his sire Tapit, Fort Bragg has shown himself as limited in distance. He set a fast pace and faded to fifth in the Florida Derby (G1), and also faded to fifth in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) after making a menacing move.

His dam side possibly holds him back. Fort Bragg’s dam March X Press ran as a turf sprinter who failed to stretch out, and she most likely balances out Fort Bragg’s stamina on top to make him more of a miler.

Fort Bragg cuts back to a one-turn mile in this spot. Under Joel Rosario, he can find a nice spot stalking the expected leaders Kangaroo Court, Echo Again and Frosted Departure before making his move on the turn.   

Notice the high early TimeformUS Pace Figures for Fort Bragg’s Florida Derby effort. He initially ran a 144 and 131 for the first two fractions. In most cases, when a horse cuts back after setting a fast pace he is live.

Fort Bragg feels like a value at his morning-line odds of 9-2. This is the right spot for him to emerge as one of the top dirt milers in this division.

Win/place: No. 7 Fort Bragg at 7-2 or higher