Analysis: Sharp Samurai looks live in San Antonio

Sharp Samurai enters the Grade 2, $200,000 San Antonio Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita with a long nine-race losing streak for trainer Mark Glatt, which includes the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile most recently.

From a handicapping perspective though, there are a couple of reasons to still trust him.

Even with the losing streak, Sharp Samurai shows good form, tactical speed and high speed figures, which make him a threat in this 1 1/16-mile race on dirt.

Sharp Samurai is known as a competitive turf horse who won the City of Hope Stakes (G2) two years ago before the start of the losing streak. Forget about those grass races and focus on his two dirt starts in recently in the Pacific Classic (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He ran second in the former and third in the latter race.

In the Pacific Classic, Sharp Samurai gave mild pressure to the pacesetter Maximum Security, who led through slow fractions according to TimeformUS, who chose to label all three early fractions in blue.

Given the pace and how Maximum Security loves securing the lead, it is understandable that Sharp Samurai could not keep up in the stretch and lost by three lengths. To Sharp Samurai’s credit, he still earned a 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Two starts later, Sharp Samurai tries dirt again in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland. No one was beating the ultra-sharp Knicks Go in that race.

Sharp Samurai turns in a great effort to finish third, especially after experiencing traffic problems and taking up slightly on the first turn.

Watch how Sharp Samurai checks in between Art Collector and Pirate’s Punch in the scramble for early position.

Sharp Samurai does recover enough to stalk on the inside.

As Sharp Samurai travels in fifth, Knicks Go sets wicked fractions of 21.98 and 44.40 while receiving pressure from Complexity. Sharp Samurai cuts into that pace by moving behind them on the far turn and tipping right outside to set himself up for a final punch.

But as the field straightens out in the stretch, Knicks Go opens up in a remarkable performance. Sharp Samurai’s move stalls a bit, but he finds enough gas to pass Complexity late and finish third. He misses the runner-up spot to the closing Jesus’ Team.

For the effort, Sharp Samurai still matches his 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure from the Pacific Classic, which is a great sign. Plus, he only lost by 3 ½ lengths to the best dirt miler in the country in Knicks Go. Also, Jesus’ Team only passes Sharp Samurai late because he takes advantage of the pace. Sharp Samurai still does more work than Jesus’ Team by moving closer to the leaders at an earlier point on the far turn.

In other words, Sharp Samurai is in great form on dirt with two Top 3 finishes in two starts this year against quality horses. The fact that Sharp Samurai can move into the teeth of a fast pace by Knicks Go means he can show speed here in a more moderate pace situation.

If Sharp Samurai only repeats the 123 from his two recent dirt starts, he is contender. If he improves upon the 123, then he probably wins depending on the fitness level of Mucho Gusto.

Even at 5/2, Sharp Samurai is the top choice.

Mucho Gusto starts off a 301-day layoff and lacks the recent races found in Sharp Samurai's form. However, if Mucho Gusto does retain his form prior to the layoff for trainer Bob Baffert, then he is a likely winner.

Back in late February, Mucho Gusto ran a solid fourth in the Saudi Cup, losing by only 2 ¾ lengths after blocking the winner Maximum Security twice. Midnight Bisou made an inside move for second late, while the familiar Benbatl was third. Mucho Gusto lost to world-class horses in that difficult race. 

Before the Saudi Cup, Mucho Gusto also won the Pegasus World Cup by 4 ½ lengths over Mr Freeze with a 129 TimeformUS Speed Figure, well above Sharp Samurai's 123 in the Breeders' Cup and Pacific Classic.

But again, Mucho Gusto is coming off a long layoff. Baffert is possibly using the San Antonio as a warm-up for the Pegasus World Cup, which means winning is not everything. Baffert will want Mucho Gusto to peak one month later at Gulfstream, not in the San Antonio this week.

Without the layoff concern, Mucho Gusto owns the class, tactical speed and speed figures to win the San Antonio. He draws well in Post 8 and should settle into a pressing or stalking position depending on how fast Take the One O One goes. But a long layoff is never not a strike against.

Unfortunately, Mucho Gusto and Sharp Samurai are the lowest choices on the morning line at 2-1 and 5/2, but that is how handicapping value works sometimes. Given their records and overall chances, those odds are arguably fair win odds.

Wait and see if Sharp Samurai slips to 3-1 before post time. If he goes a bit higher than 5/2, then he becomes a value Win bet, rather than just a fair odds wager. Otherwise, this is possibly a race to only use in multi-race wagers with those two horses and move on.