Lukas Classic: Fade the likely favorite for these 3 reasons

When analyzing Rattle N Roll in the Grade 2, $500,000 Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs, there are some negative points to focus on before deciding whether to accept him in the top slot. If bettors can overlook these three flaws below, then maybe Rattle N Roll will make a good wager.

With these flaws though, Rattle N Roll is not a perfect horse to back on Saturday, especially if a certain Todd Pletcher-trained horse wakes up.

Here are the reasons to bet against Rattle N Roll on top.

1. He ran off the board as favorite last time

In his mosts recent start, Rattle N Roll could only finish a mild sixth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Saratoga. Granted, Rattle N Roll had little pace to close into and he only lost by 3 3/4 lengths, which is not a huge margin on dirt, but also started the race as the 8-5 favorite.

When horses start at 8-5, a higher level of performance is expected upon them and the standards are higher when reviewing the race. 

On the far turn, Rattle N Roll had some traffic to deal with. In midstretch though, he had plenty of room to make a run through on the inside.

Even good horses throw in clunkers or bad races sometimes. But the point is that Rattle N Roll turned in this effort at 8-5, which means he burned significant win money, and the public will likely forgive him.

Why take a horse at low odds after he ran sixth last time?

2. Clapton outran him

Although Clapton’s speed figures look slightly better than earlier in the year, he has never been that fast of a runner at the higher levels. His lone win this year came in the Ghostzapper Stakes (G3) back in April.

One start after the Ghostzapper victory, Clapton lost to Rattle N Roll in the Pimlico Special (G3) by 4 1/4 lengths after closing mildly for third.

More recently in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Clapton made a wide move on the far turn and grinded out his rally to finish fourth, while only losing third to the Woodbine shipper Tyson by a nose. With his gradual stretch move, Clapton also outran Rattle N Roll by 1 1/2 lengths this time.

Rattle N Roll was outrun by a closer at double-digit odds who began the approach to the far turn behind him. For an 8-5 shot, that is disappointing.

Even though Clapton recently outran Rattle N Roll at Saratoga though, the public will likely favor Rattle N Roll once again at shorter odds.

3. Americanrevolution might return to peak form

Last year, Americanrevolution ran fast races in all three starts despite not winning. Even his return race that year was decent on figures.

Americanrevolution began his 2022 campaign in the nine-furlong Blame Stakes on this course, where he made a move to get within half a length of the lead before fading slightly in the stretch to finish a tired fourth. He only lost by three lengths while earning a 122 on TimeformUS. 

One month later in the Stephen Foster (G2), Americanrevolution took a step forward in form by running second to Olympiad while earning an impressive 132 TimeformUS Speed Figure in defeat. Two months later, the two horses met again in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) where Olympiad and Americanrevolution ran 1-2 again, with Americanrevolution regressing back to a 123 in his final 2022 start. 

If Americanrevolution matches the 123 in the Lukas Classic on Saturday, he would probably beat Rattle N Roll and the rest of this field.

However, Americanrevolution gave a disappointing return effort in the one-mile Evan Shipman Handicap at Saratoga last month, where he came within half a length of the leader again before fading more severely in fourth. Americanrevolution lost by a concerning 7 1/4 lengths in this year’s return.

Maybe Americanrevolution deserves a pass. After all, the pattern of making a move and fading looks similar to his return in the Blame last year, even if the fade was more severe this time against weaker horses.

If Americanrevolution gives his best effort, then Rattle N Roll is in trouble.