3 reasons not to bet Medina Spirit in Awesome Again Stakes

After skipping the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) last weekend, Medina Spirit is expected to enter the Grade 1, $300,000 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday. Even though Medina Spirit is capable of winning his debut against older horses on his best day, there are important reasons not to bet him this week from a value standpoint.

For one, trainer Bob Baffert gave a flimsy reason to skip the Pennsylvania Derby. He stated his unhappiness with Post 9, which is not a bad spot for a speed horse.

In races with multiple speed horses, drawing outside is arguably preferable because it allows the jockey to assess how the inside speed horses break and then adjust accordingly. When two or more speed horses contest the pace, the inside speed also generally takes the worst of the situation because of the lack of breathing room next to the rail.

While it is understood that Medina Spirit runs best on the lead, he is not a pushover in the tracking or stalking position either. Remember, this colt shows an 8: 4-3-1 record. His only exacta miss came in the Preakness Stakes after a grueling pace. Otherwise, he always has finished first or second. 

In the Sham Stakes (G3) nine months ago, Medina Spirit chased in second by a few lengths as his former stablemate Life Is Good controlled the pace uncontested.

Despite giving Life Is Good the complete pace advantage, Medina Spirit still closed the gap late to 3/4 of a length at the wire. 

Almost the same pace scenario happened in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) in March, except that Medina Spirit failed to close this time. Instead, Life Is Good won by eight lengths. Regardless, Medina Spirit still ran well enough to hold second by 2 1/4 lengths over the third-place Dream Shake, who was a promising runner at the time. Medina Spirit and Dream Shake would meet again about a month later.

In the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Medina Spirit traveled as an outside stalker this time. Rock Your World secured the lead and enjoyed an inside bias on his way to victory by 4 1/4 lengths. As Rock Your World controlled the front, Medina Spirit moved past Dream Shake and finished reasonably well to secure second.

With that said, an outside post is not an automatic sentence to press or stalk rather than lead. 

As long as the pace is not suicidal, speed horses can cross over from an outside post and secure the early lead, even with other speed-types present. All it takes is a sharp break and some jockey encouragement to outfoot the inside speed horses.

If Medina Spirit had run in the Pennsylvania Derby from Post 9 and failed to secure the lead, his past form indicated at least a probable in-the-money finish. In other words, Medina Spirit is a speed horse who still makes an effort as a presser or stalker, assuming the horse is feeling good and ready to fire one of his usual efforts.

With those points in mind, it seems that Baffert might have pulled Medina Spirit out of the Pennsylvania Derby because of a lack of confidence. Maybe he was not sure Medina Spirit was going to fire a good race. As a bettor who risks money on the race, it is important to know that the trainer feels confident about the horse, and ducking a reasonable spot is a red flag. 

Is there a reason for the trainer’s apparent lack of confidence?

Another reason to avoid betting Medina Spirit is his Sept. 17 workout in company with Ax Man. 

In the Sept. 17 workout, which is available on XBTV, Medina Spirit’s exercise rider tries to nudge his mount along with some right-handed encouragement after they pass the finish line. He eventually passes Ax Man, but the work is not smooth and does not inspire confidence. 

Medina Spirit’s Sept. 25 workout in company with Ax Man looks better, although there is nothing eye-catching to note on Medina Spirit or Ax Man's side. The two horses match each other throughout the work.

Maybe Baffert balked on shipping Medina Spirit after the Sept. 17 workout, and as seen on video, he had good reason to think twice. 

The third reason to avoid betting Medina Spirit is that the colt tries older horses for the first time as the probable favorite. Remember the old handicapping rule that says to play against the favorite if he or she tries something new, whether it is a new distance, age group, surface or anything else. Different conditions bring other horses into play.

Running against older horses for the first time is always a challenge, and in this case, Medina Spirit offers no value in this step up because he is too well known.

Could Medina Spirit win the Awesome Again? Sure. But the above warnings show there are negative points to consider before betting on him on top this weekend.  

If Medina Spirit does win the Awesome Again, that would count as his second Grade 1 this year. Although it is widely assumed that Medina Spirit will be disqualified from the Kentucky Derby based on a failed test after the race, right now, that is not a final ruling.

Assuming Medina Spirit takes the Awesome Again, there is no reason he cannot step forward in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar and beat his peers Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality again, as well as Knicks Go and other older horses.

If Medina Spirit won three Grade 1 races including the Kentucky Derby, it would be hard not to see him on the final ballot for Horse of the Year. But that is a big “If.”

For now, Medina Spirit must overcome his trainer’s possibile lack of confidence, show his subpar Sept. 17 workout is an outlier, and beat a group of older horses who are no pushovers. Medina Spirit can win this week and become a legitimate Classic contender, but the value is not there to bet him.