3 reasons not to bet Bright Future in Breeders’ Cup Classic

After capturing the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) at Saratoga on Sept. 2, Bright Future might indeed own a bright future if he stays healthy and continues to race next year. In terms of the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 4 at Santa Anita, though, there are some drawbacks to betting on this lightly raced son of Curlin trained by Todd Pletcher.

As a bettor, here are three main reasons to ignore Bright Future in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

To start off, Bright Future beat a weak field for a Grade 1 race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and he did not win by a clear margin either. 

For example, the runner-up Proxy is not a top-tier horse in this division even though he won the Clark Stakes (G1) last year and ran second in both the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup this year.

Proxy has taken advantage of weaker Grade 1 races, while failing to show up in the big ones. Remember that he ran eighth in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G1) at Ellis Park and fifth in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) back in January. Yet, Bright Future only won by a nose over Proxy in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which makes Bright Future seem average (relative to the top Grade 1 dirt routers) too.

The list of horses behind Bright Future and Proxy in the Jockey Club Gold Cup does not really improve in terms of overall class either. For example, the third-place Tyson has run as a synthetic specialist at Woodbine for most of his short career, and the fourth-place Clapton is mainly a Grade 2 or 3 type of runner whose major win this year came in the Ghostzapper Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park.

Bright Future lacks a significant amount of seasoning as well. He only owns one Grade 1 over a questionable field and shows two starts overall in graded stakes races when counting the eighth-place finish in the Brooklyn Stakes (G2) earlier this year. That is not a lot of experience.

Four of Bright Future's seven overall races came in either allowance or allowance optional claimers. The other race besides the allowance and graded stakes races was his successful career debut in a maiden race. 

When Vino Rosso won the Breeders’ Cup Classic for Pletcher as a 4-year-old colt in 2019, he went into the race a seasoned professional with 14 previous starts under his belt and almost a full campaign of Grade 1 races that year.

Vino Rosso’s campaign before the Breeders’ Cup included a win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes (G1), a third-place finish in the Whitney Stakes (G1) and a runner-up finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1).

In 2018, Vino Rosso ran in nothing but graded stakes races from start to finish, with his main highlight occurring when he won the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). He also ran ninth in the Kentucky Derby and fourth in the Belmont Stakes (G1) behind the Triple Crown winner. After running fifth in the Travers later in the summer, he went on the shelf. 

By the time the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic came around, Vino Rosso had competed in almost everything related to his division.

In contrast, Bright Future will only make his third graded stakes attempt in the Breeders’ Cup Classic against foes who are more battle hardened.

For a third reason to not bet Bright Future in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, his recent races indicate he uses speed to sit close to the pacesetter, and that style will probably hurt his chances in this edition, especially if one speedy Bob Baffert-trained 3-year-old named Arabian Knight runs. 

Bright Future made use of a tracking style in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where he traveled in second and about a length off the pacesetter Warrior Johny through the opening quarter. But if Arabian Knight enters the Classic, giving him a one-length cushion will almost ensure that he wins since Baffert pacesetters get brave on the lead.

Can Bright Future steal the lead early from Arabian Knight? In all likelihood, Arabian Knight will end up pressuring him significantly in that case. Add the speed of White Abarrio to the mix, and it just seems unlikely that Bright Future could withstand those two speed horses, even if he gives them about a length again, and still hold off the closers.

Those are the reasons not to bet Bright Future in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November. Now, if Bright Future starts at big odds around 15-1, then maybe bettors might want to look twice at his form. In current overseas markets though, the best odds on him are only 10-1.

While Bright Future could still win on raw talent, his time to emerge as a top horse seems more likely down the line rather than in November. Currently, this is a developing 4-year-old colt by a great sire in Curlin, and the potential is there for a great season next year. Based on the reasons above though, he looks like a bad horse to put money on now.