3 playable long shots in Derby Future Wager Pool 1

When playing Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1, it makes more sense to take swings at bigger long shots rather than settle for 20-1 or less. At this point, no one knows which horses will even reach the Derby.

Bettors also can bet on “All Fillies” or “All Other 3YO Males.” As of Sunday morning, the latter option is an unattractive 3-5 in live wagering, although it contains the Bob Baffert-trained horses excluded from points and they still might find a way in under another trainer. 

One question to ask while shifting through the field is “Will this horse even make the Derby?”

Here are three interesting singular options at long shot odds. 

Note: Betting closes at 6 p.m. EST on Sunday.

Giant Game (currently 44-1)

Giant Game took a step forward off his three-length maiden win at Keeneland to finish a hanging third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Considering Giant Game made only his third start in the Breeders’ Cup, he could continue to progress heading into his 3-year-old season.

Trainer Dale Romans knows how to navigate the Derby trail, which is a plus as well. He came close to winning the 2012 Kentucky Derby with Dullahan, who made a hanging move late to finish third by 1 3/4 lengths.

As a son of Giant Causeway, Giant Game is supposed to handle longer routes. His bottom side is harder to read, although the presence of 1993 Kentucky Derby champion Sea Hero in the dam line does help a bit. 

On the morning line, Giant Game is listed at a low 15-1, but the public is ignoring him at the moment. If Giant Game stays at his current live odds of 40-1, then he offers enough value to take a shot on him.

Mo Donegal (currently 35-1)

Donegal Racing buys horses with longer distances in mind, and Mo Donegal is another example of this pattern.

After closing for a mild third-place finish in his Sept. 30 career debut at Belmont, Mo Donegal successfully stretched out to a 1 1/16 miles in his second start on Oct. 21 with a 1 1/2-length win.

Perhaps Mo Donegal's stamina is explained by pedigree. On the bottom side, Mo Donegal’s second dam Island Sand earned over $1.1 million as a successful dirt router. She finished second in the 2004 Kentucky Oaks and captured races such as the one-mile 2004 Acorn Stakes (G1) and 10-furlong 2005 Delaware Handicap (G2) the following year.

Mo Donegal’s trainer Todd Pletcher not only knows how to make the Derby, but he has won the race with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017. That winning experience makes a difference when handicapping the Future Wager, as it means Pletcher knows what to look for in developing and training a Derby winner.  

After Saturday's Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) Mo Donegal drifted up to 35-1 from 25-1 on Saturday.

Varatti (currently 59-1)

Although Varatti lacks stakes experience, he brings intrigue and value as an impressive maiden winner who has drifted up to 59-1 in wagering.

Varatti broke his maiden at Belmont by 4 1/2 lengths in the same Sept. 30 maiden race discussed above. The third-place Mo Donegal went on to break his own maiden on Oct 21 at Belmont, which backs up the quality of Varatti’s earlier win.

Can Varatti stretch out to a route distance? That is debatable.

Not long ago, many considered his sire Into Mischief more suitable for producing sprinters and milers, but that assumption has changed recently. Only two years ago, Into Mischief’s son Authentic won the Kentucky Derby.

On the bottom side of Varatti’s pedigree, Empire Maker’s presence as the damsire does ease some concerns. Empire Maker won the 2003 Belmont Stakes as a career highlight and usually provides a good stamina influence for his progeny or other horses related to him. 

Pletcher trains Varatti too. As explained above, it is important to pick trainers who know how to navigate the Derby trail successfully. At least those trainers know how to reach the race on points by plotting out a successful campaign before May. Bettors will want to see their Future Wager bet start in the gate at a minimum, even if the hopes look slim. 

Varatti’s big price makes the route question easier to bear. As long as he remains 50-1 or above, then he is another worthy candidate to bet on.