3 long shots to consider in Derby Future Wager Pool 4

As the Kentucky Derby draws near, in theory less guesswork is involved in playing the official Future Wager. Sorting out the crop feels more challenging than usual this year, though, especially without a dominating Baffert runner with points. The door is open for long shots. 

The pool opens on Friday at noon EST and closes on Sunday at 6 p.m. EDT. Click this link for official rules on Derby Future Wager Pool 4 and Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool 1, as well as a full list of the 24 options in each pool.

Here are ideas on which Derby horses to bet.

White Abarrio (15-1)

In two graded-stakes races, White Abarrio ran third with traffic problems in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last November and won the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) in February by 4 1/2 lengths over Simplification.

Simplification went on to back up the race by winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) in his next start with his newly found closing abilities.

The public tends to remember the most recent winner more than the previous winner. At 12-1, Simplification is not far off White Abarrio’s morning line of 15-1. But when live wagering begins on Friday, White Abarrio might become lost in the shuffle without a start since Feb. 5.

Besides his stakes credentials, White Abarrio owns useful tactical speed. In other words, White Abarrio can sit off the leader or stalk the pace, which is nice to know considering this Kentucky Derby might contain fast pacesetters such as Forbidden Kingdom and Early Voting.

White Abarrio is 14th on the Derby points list. As long as he hits the trifecta in the Florida Derby (G1), he will earn his spot in the race.

Shipsational (50-1)

If only the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) was not on the same weekend as Future Wager Pool 4, as Shipsational’s odds could drop with another good performance on Saturday.

Shipsational might offer double-digit odds anyway unless he completely dominates the field. Remember, the public tends to disrespect New York-breds and California-breds from a betting standpoint in the Kentucky Derby.

As for his credentials, Shipsational shows a runner-up finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) last month. He went through a troubled first turn after breaking a step slow and getting caught behind traffic immediately.

In the stretch run, Shipsational grinded out a runner-up finish.

He owns more speed than shown in this effort.

Last fall, Shipsational won important New York-bred races such as the Bertram F. Bongard Stakes and Sleepy Hollow Stakes. In the former race at seven furlongs, he used stalking tactics, and he led from start to finish in the latter one-mile race. If he can break a little sharper, Shipsational does not need to run as a closer from mid-pack.

The Bertram F. Bongard runner-up Senbei won his next two starts and ended up blowing out the field in the Notebook Stakes by 8 1/4 lengths.

Watch the odds on Shipsational. If he runs well in the Tampa Bay Derby without winning and remains 20-1 or higher in Future Wager Pool 4, his odds are still in value range. If Shipsational wins this week and ends up 12-1 or higher in Future Wager Pool 4, then he still offers value as well. 

Early Voting (30-1)

Despite capturing the Withers Stakes (G3) by 4 1/2 lengths, Early Voting is 30-1. Derby trail runners from the January and February points races at Aqueduct tend to get ignored, as it is assumed the good horses move out when the cold weather comes to New York.

The impressive part about Early Voting’s record is that he won the Withers in only his second start. Most horses need more seasoning before they can step up and win a graded-stakes race. Early Voting also won with pacesetting tactics, which is the most successful Derby running style in recent years.

Early Voting did start to get tired late in the Withers, but the fatigue is understandable, as Early Voting set a wicked pace with fractions of 23.57, 48.04 and 1:14.29. Those numbers do not appear fast at first glance without knowing how slow Aqueduct plays in February. In terms of TimeformUS Pace Figures, he shows 151s for the first two fractions.

He might run into a problem if Forbidden Kingdom enters the Kentucky Derby with the same running style. Perhaps Early Voting can figure out a way to ration his speed and run as a presser or stalker.

Early Voting’s dam Amour d’Ete is a full sister to Irap, who won the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) in 2017 before finishing 18th in the Kentucky Derby.

At 30-1 or higher, Early Voting is worth considering for a win bet.