3 horses who can beat Banishing in Fair Grounds allowance

Even though it has taken a while for Banishing to make his third career start, it appears the promising 3-year-old will compete at Fair Grounds Saturday in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer on dirt. With a win, he can justify his launch onto the Kentucky Derby 2023 trail in a points race.

Banishing generated hype among Derby watchers because he dominated a local maiden field by 8 1/2 lengths Dec. 26 at the same 1 1/16-mile distance. He won after setting the pace under pressure and pulling clear in the stretch.  

For the winning maiden effort, Banishing earned a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 90 Beyer Speed Figure. Banishing also completed the distance in 1:44.80, which beat Jace’s Road’s time of 1:44.85 in the Gun Runner Stakes for 3-year-olds later on the card. Banishing already ran faster than the points race, which bodes well for his future on the trail.

Given Banishing won on this course before at the same distance, he might dominate this optional claimer and become one of the trail favorites.

With that said, Banishing is not a lock. Three other talented colts also can win, especially if Banishing needs a start to get back into shape.

For example, Tapit Shoes finished fourth in a strong local Jan. 21 optional claimer featuring the winner Determinedly, the highly regarded Tapit’s Conquest and Silver Heist. All three horses will compete in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) later in the card. Tapit Shoes lost by five lengths, but he also wandered around in the stretch like a confused horse and might improve in his fourth career start, or he might run green again.

With a 101 earned for his fourth-place finish, Tapit Shoes's best TimeformUS Speed Figure is not far off Banishing’s 104. Also, TimeformUS gives trainer Brad Cox an overall 100 rating, a 100 at Fair Grounds and another 100 with horses returning in 21 to 35 days. When working with jockey Luis Saez, the team gets a fourth 100 rating.

The next contender is First Defender, who won his career debut by 5 1/4 lengths in a local six-furlong maiden sprint on Jan. 21. In that race, First Defender contested the lead with Pinfire before putting him away.

First Defender earned an impressive 106 on TimeformUS for the maiden win, which technically places him ahead of Banishing already on the speed figure scale without considering the distances. But the question is whether First Defender can transfer his form to a route.

In terms of pedigree, First Defender is supposed to handle routing. This colt is by Quality Road out of the A.P. Indy mare Love and Pride. Love and Pride won two Grade 1 dirt routes in her career, including the 2012 Personal Ensign Handicap (G1) and Zenyatta Stakes (G1) one race later.

John Velazquez takes the mount for trainer Steve Asmussen. They make an unusual team, as TimeformUS says they did not work together during the last year. Perhaps that is a good sign. Otherwise, why does Velazquez take the mount with a barn he does not usually work with?

The last horse to consider is Willakenzie, a stablemate of Tapit Shoes. He broke his maiden at first asking by 3 3/4 lengths in a local nine-furlong maiden race on Jan. 5 but earned only a 96 for the win. The race was taken off the turf, which is one negative since it means Willakenzie beat mostly a field of turf horses struggling to run.

Regardless, Willakenzie could take a step forward in his second start. Most horses use their career debuts to learn how to run in a real race.

Also, Cox does not typically crank his first timers, which makes the speed figure meaningless. Willakenzie might improve by enough points.

But Banishing still merits the most respect. Not only did he dominate the field in his maiden win, he also ran faster than the final Gun Runner Stakes time. Since that race was in December, Banishing is expected to return a more mature and physically improved horse.

This race is more playable if the player thinks Banishing will lose. The public will want to bet him, and the Godolphin label only makes him more attractive for various bettors. For those who believe Banishing is a single, then key him in multi-race wagers and move on.