3 fillies who could benefit from a change in distance
Because 3-year-olds are still young and developing, sometimes it is hard for trainers and owners to see what types of races their horses want to run in. Once the fever of chasing the Kentucky Derby or Oaks ends, connections are free to cut back their runners in different types of races.
Here are three 3-year-old fillies who stand to benefit from a change in running categories, either from a cutback or stretchout into a route.
Pedigree-wise, it does not make sense to say Venti Valentine needs a cutback. This is a daughter of Firing Line out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare. But, Venti Valentine’s longer route efforts hint at a filly who lacks stamina.
In the nine-furlong Demoiselle Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct last December, Venti Valentine hung in the stretch and let Nest pass her late for the win.
When Venti Valentine made her return in March, she blew out the field in the one-mile Busher Invitational by seven lengths and hit the Top 3 of many Kentucky Oaks lists.
Watch how easily she won at the shorter distance.
But one month later, Venti Valentine disappointed backers by blowing the lead late in the nine-furlong Gazelle Stakes (G3) and letting a slow filly named Nostalgic pass her in the stretch for the victory.
In her next start, Venti Valentine then tried to stalk the pace in the nine-furlong Kentucky Oaks before folding quickly to last and 27 lengths behind the winner Secret Oath.
Based on her race record, Venti Valentine wants to cut back to one mile or less. Not every horse follows their pedigree, and this filly is one of them.
Ironically, Yuugiri is another filly out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare who should appreciate a shorter distance after fading in the Kentucky Oaks.
In fairness, Yuugiri had more reason to fold as the pacesetter through fast fractions with a quality runner in Echo Zulu chasing her. To give more credit to Yuugiri, she won the two-turn Fantasy Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn in pacesetting fashion before her poor run in the Kentucky Oaks.
However, Yuugiri beat a weak field in the Fantasy Stakes as Secret Oath skipped the race in favor of tackling males in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
Yuugiri’s only other win came in her career debut when she won easily by 7 1/4 lengths in a six-furlong maiden sprint at Churchill Downs last September. She competed exclusively in route races for five straight races afterwards.
Even though Yuugiri can win a route stakes race against easier fillies, she might end up as a more explosive sprinter if given the chance.
If nothing else, it is worth a shot to see if pointing Yuugiri for a race such as the seven-furlong Test Stakes (G1) at Saratoga instead of the nine-furlong Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) pays off.
Maybe there are easier sprint races around the country as well. It is not clear if Yuugiri can win a Grade 1.
Now, here is a filly who deserves a chance at routing.
Pedigree-wise, the stamina is present as a daughter of Gun Runner out of the Tapit mare Just Wicked, who is a full sister to My Miss Lilly. My Miss Lilly’s best race came when she won the nine-furlong Gazelle Stakes (G2) in 2018 before a poor Kentucky Oaks effort. Given that Tapit sired multiple Belmont Stakes winners, he is a big stamina influence.
Despite the route influences, Just Wicked broke her maiden at first asking in a five-furlong sprint and also won the Adirondack Stakes (G2) at six-and-a-half furlongs in her third career start.
In Just Wicked’s more recent sprint efforts though, she gave the impression of a filly wanting more distance.
Two starts ago, Just Wicked ran a closing third in the seven-furlong Eight Belles Stakes (G2) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard while finishing strongly behind two quality sprinters in Matareya and Pretty Birdie.
Then in the seven-furlong Leslie’s Lady Overnight Stakes, Just Wicked straight up beat Pretty Birdie by gradually taking over in the stretch and finishing strongly to win by 2 3/4 lengths. Pretty Birdie had all the advantage by setting a moderate pace through a 23.07 opening quarter and 45.41 half-mile.
Perhaps Just Wicked only needed more seasoning and experience before she could live up to her pedigree. Now is the right time to stretch her out and experiment in a route. She looks ready to try one mile at least.