3 Oaks and Derby runners who can handle wet dirt
Whenever it rains on Kentucky Derby weekend, handicapping becomes an interesting challenge to figure out which horses handle wet dirt at Churchill Downs. Past success on mud or slop are the best indicators of a horse ready to handle the conditions, but there are other signals.
As of this writing, rain is in the Louisville weather forecast for Friday, and Saturday looks partly cloudy. But weather in the area can change quickly.
Here are three fillies who will not mind wet conditions in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, followed by three Derby horses who can handle rain as well.
Kentucky Oaks
This talented, closing filly from the Brad Cox barn won three times in three starts over wet dirt. In two of those winning efforts, Wet Paint won the Martha Washington Stakes by two lengths over a wet-fast dirt surface and the Honeybee Stakes (G3) by three over slop.
Both of those starts came at Oaklawn Park, although Wet Paint did break her maiden at Horseshoe Indianapolis over the slop as well.
If it rains again on Friday, then Wet Paint holds all the cards with a wet track, a likely fast pace ahead and an excellent jockey in Flavien Prat.
Southlawn lacks experience over mud or slop, but she did break her maiden by five lengths over a good dirt surface at Ellis Park last year. To start off this year's campaign, Southlawn also won an optional claiming race at Fair Grounds by eight lengths over another good dirt surface to make her technically 2-for-2 on wet dirt.
Given those efforts, Southlawn probably will thrive if it rains enough to make the track muddy or sloppy, but it is a partial guess.
Oddly enough, Botanical has never started on dirt. After two losses on turf, trainer Brad Cox sent this filly to Turfway Park, where she won all four starts over synthetic, including the Bourbonette Oaks in late March.
Most turf and synthetic runners prefer a sloppy track rather than a fast dirt surface, and this filly likely fits the label as a true synthetic filly who can appreciate a softer main track surface if the rain ends up coming.
Kentucky Derby
Last October, Two Phil’s won the Street Sense Stakes over slop by an impressive 5 1/4 lengths on this racetrack. In more recent times, Two Phil’s also won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park over synthetic by 5 1/4 lengths, which falls in line with the notion that synthetic horses love slop and vice versa.
On the small chance that it rains, Two Phil’s chances to win hit the board go up. He seems to grip the surface better over slop compared to fast dirt.
Trainer Keith Desormeaux has been pointing Confidence Game to this race with an unusual approach. Regardless, Confidence Game did prove his affinity for a sloppy track by winning the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn.
Most runners with Bernardini in their blood handle wet dirt, and Confidence Game’s sire is Bernardini. In general, sires who come from the A.P. Indy line create horses who handle mud or slop, and Bernardini’s sire is A.P. Indy.
Whether Confidence Game has the fitness to win remains a question mark, but if the track does came up wet on Saturday, he will not mind.
Last September at Saratoga, Forte took the Hopeful Stakes (G1) by three lengths over the slop. Then Forte went on to lead the division by winning the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1), Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and more recently the Florida Derby (G1) with a troubled trip.
Although Forte has not tried a wet dirt surface since the Hopeful, the ability to handle those conditions does not just go away with time. It is still there.
If it does rain on Saturday, Forte probably can stay clear of mud in his face from Post 15 and make his usual run from the outside paths again.