Kentucky Derby: 3 long shots that could cash from off the pace

Bettors wishing to spice up their Kentucky Derby tickets might search for a mid-pack type or closer at long shot odds to hit one of the bottom spots. These horses probably cannot win, but they can help boost the trifecta and superfecta payouts. 

Here are three longshot closers to consider for underneath spots. 

Smile Happy

Putting Smile Happy in the long shot category feels strange because he led the division after his win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) last fall. Not every horse can fit under 10-1 though, and this one seems left out.

Is he a closer? According to TimeformUS Projector, Smile Happy does not even crack the top half of the field in terms of his early position. At most, Smile Happy could settle into midpack. With the amount of speed horses present, it will be tough for this colt to stalk as he did in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).  

In his return race this year, Smile Happy made a closing move for second in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds while losing by 2 3/4 lengths to Epicenter. He did beat a troubled Zandon though, who closed for third with a wide trip.

Afterwards, Smile Happy met Zandon again in the Blue Grass Stakes. After making use of stalking tactics and briefly leading, Zandon overtook him in the stretch to win by 2 ½ lengths. Even Zandon outran him, Smile Happy still ran a good race after a wide trip. He deserves credit for moving into the lead and finishing second.

With a good post and some traffic luck in the Kentucky Derby, Smile Happy can hit one of underneath spots at double-digit odds.

Tawny Port

Even though this colt seems to prefer synthetic, Tawny Port shows a good effort on Fair Grounds dirt against some of the best runners in this crop.   

Tawny Port made up enough ground in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) to finish fifth by 7 3/4 lengths after traffic problems on the far turn. Given the depth of the loaded Risen Star field, a fifth-place finish is a decent effort.

The winner Epicenter won the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his next start and enters the Derby as the expected favorite. Zandon took the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland over the Risen Star runner-up Smile Happy. Also, Slow Down Andy lasted for the win in the Sunland Derby (G3) after a brutal speed duel.

After the Risen Star, Tawny Port ran second to Tiz the Bomb in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park over synthetic after stalking a fast pace.

On the switch back to dirt though, Tawny Port reverted back to closing tactics and won the Lexington Stakes (G3) by one length at Keeneland over the pacesetter Major General. He seems to handle dirt, and the longer distance might help as he can just pick off tired horses late.

If the early traffic does not engulf him, Tawny Port can possibly shake up the superfecta and hit either the third or fourth spot at 20-1 or higher.

Barber Road

This one is more of a stretch, but his record speaks for itself. Barber Road shows a 7: 2-4-1 record in route races, which is impressive.

He also keeps improving as time goes on.

After closing for second to Newgrange in the Southwest Stakes (G3), Barber Road ran a closing third in the Rebel Stakes (G2) won by Un Ojo.  

In the Arkansas Derby (G1), Barber Road closed for second again while losing by 2 3/4 lengths to the winner Cyberknife. He also moved past a top filly in Secret Oath after she failed to catch Cyberknife. In the same race, Un Ojo finished a non-threatening eighth and 14 ¼ lengths behind the winner.

Barber Road probably took a step forward in the Arkansas Derby, while Un Ojo was exposed after his Rebel performance and could not keep up.

Again, with a clean trip and minimal traffic issues, Barber Road might keep his streak alive of hitting the board in every route race. He just needs to find a clear path and pick off tired horses in the stretch.