Kentucky Derby 2022: Here are 3 horses to toss
Every year, a list of three horses to toss from Kentucky Derby tickets is posted on this blog. With 20 horses in the field, this is a good practice as it can become expensive to construct tickets such as a trifecta or superfecta.
Less than two weeks is left until the race, but the field looks nearly complete at this point. Now is the right time to post the next three Derby tosses.
Here are the three horses to ignore.
This is the most controversial pick for the toss list. But there is no logical reason to use this son of Giant's Causeway after his Florida Derby (G1) flop.
If trainer Brian Lynch had found an excuse for Classic Causeway folding last in the 11-horse field, Classic Causeway might offer a better case to forgive the effort. But it looks like he took pressure from Simplification and then quit while approaching the far turn.
Even though the Kentucky Derby pace has not been the same since the points system came about, it can still weed out speed horses not prepared to handle a fast pace at 1 1/4 miles as well as speed horses who are not in the top tier of contenders. Classic Causeway misses the mark in both categories.
To Classic Causeway’s credit, he did take pressure in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs from Little Vic before disposing of him and winning by 3 3/4 lengths. But Little Vic was probably a pushover; he ended up a distant fourth by 20 1/4 lengths in a Gulfstream optional claimer in his next start.
Classic Causeway won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) after enjoying an uncontested lead, and he beat horses of questionable quality in Grantham, Shipsational and Golden Glider. Earlier in the Tampa Bay Derby card, Scalding won the Challenger Stakes (G3) in 1:43.53, which went more than a second faster than the 1:44.90 posted by Classic Causeway.
Supporters might prefer looking at wins over losses, and perhaps they give Classic Causeway credit for winning two of his three prep races
In all likelihood, though, Classic Causeway will not handle the pace pressure from runners such as Epicenter, Messier, Summer Is Tomorrow and Simplification. He already failed to handle Simplification at Gulfstream.
When speed horses do not handle the Derby pace, it can go south for them quickly, especially at the 10-furlong distance. Classic Causeway is a toss.
The presence of international horses is welcome at the Kentucky Derby, but the reality is that UAE Derby (G2) runners do not perform well in this race.
Besides the long list of UAE Derby runners failing to hit the Derby board, Summer Is Tomorrow’s other problem is similar to Classic Causeway's: He brings speed to the table in a race where he faces a higher class of horses.
Summer Is Tomorrow could not even finish off the UAE Derby, as he had no answer when Crown Pride grinded his way to the front and won.
Now Summer Is Tomorrow must battle speed horses such as Epicenter, Messier, Simplification and Classic Causeway and still find more in the stretch? Realistically, the task appears impossible for this Meydan runner.
After losing the San Felipe Stakes (G2) by 10 1/2 lengths and the Santa Anita Derby (G1) by 12 1/4 lengths, it seems unlikely Happy Jack could hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. This time, the son of Oxbow must close against a deeper field containing other horses on the same level as Taiba and Messier.
To Happy Jack’s credit, he did finish third in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby, with the latter race containing Taiba and Messier. Supporters could make some kind of case for him hitting the third or fourth slots of Derby tickets.
But the California group is questionable in terms of depth and quality. When the San Felipe runner-up Doppelganger traveled to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby (G1), he lost by eight lengths to Cyberknife, a good horse who isn’t one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
If nothing else, the Derby traffic likely will engulf Happy Jack. It is one thing to pass a few horses for third in the Santa Anita Derby, but many other horses will fight for that third or fourth spot in the Kentucky Derby. Happy Jack is not used to navigating through a big field.
Happy Jack is not exceptionally talented, and his running style works against him in 20-horse field. He looks like a toss from all tickets.