3 Derby contenders that are ready to step forward this week

With three major Kentucky Derby prep races this weekend, it is time to discuss which 3-year-olds will step forward on the trail and stand out in terms of performance. At this point, most of these runners are hitting their best stride after a few races this year. As young racehorses grow and mature, the speed figures are supposed to move forward.

Here are the top blog choices for the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), Blue Grass Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) this Saturday. If all goes well, all three prospective Derby contenders will win their races with a career best performance.

Crowded Trade – Wood Memorial Stakes (G2)

In only his second career start, Crowded Trade put in a great effort in the Gotham Stakes (G3) to lose by a nose to Weyburn after a stretch duel. The battle with Weyburn gave Crowded Trade important experience and likely made him a tougher horse overall.

Crowded Trade shows a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the runner-up effort, which is a relatively high number against this weak New York group. It is also possible the Gotham turns out better than the figure indicates. Notice how Capo Kane put up his worst effort on the trail in the Gotham, losing by 19 1/4 lengths. Yet, he previously won the Jerome Stakes and ran third in the Withers Stakes (G3).

Now Crowded Trade stretches out to nine furlongs. Although his dam side is hard to read, the pedigree leans toward handling the distance. This is a son of More Than Ready out of the Jump Start mare Maude S. Further back in Crowded Trade’s dam side, sires such as A.P. Indy and Thunder Gulch stand out as route influences.

In addition, Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables are reliable connections. Brown lacks a Wood Memorial win, but he is too good of a trainer to not take one at some point.

Expect Crowded Trade to step forward and earn a higher figure with the experience of his graded stakes debut in tow. He could develop into one of the top 3-year-olds.  

Essential Quality – Blue Grass Stakes (G2)

Essential Quality made a successful return in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn, winning by 4 1/4 lengths over Spielberg with a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 96 Beyer Speed Figure. Compared with his competition in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2), those are high speed figures.

Yet, the large support behind him as a whole does not feel in line with his numbers or overall performances at this point. Before his injury, Life Is Good ran a 130 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 107 Beyer in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), establishing himself as a true monster. Essential Quality’s 118 figure on TimeformUS and 96 Beyer feel light in comparison.

So this is Essential Quality’s chance to earn a dominant figure. The signs point toward him breaking 120 on TimeformUS and earning a 100 Beyer Figure or more.

For one, Essential Quality makes his second start off the bench after a 113-day layoff following his Breeders’ Cup triumph. Most horses improve in their second on third start back. Considering there was no reason to empty the tank in February, he is likely to move forward. 

Also, Essential Quality starts at Keeneland again, the site of his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Breeders’ Futurity (G1) wins last fall. Although he does not seem like the kind of horse who needs a specific track to help him win, the familiarity with Keeneland helps.   

Essential Quality is supposed to enjoy a good trip up front. He possesses speed when he needs it, and this race is void of speed with only Highly Motivated and Essential Quality up front, according to TimeformUS Pace Projector. But Highly Motivated is not a true pacesetter, which means Essential Quality might set the pace alone.

The time is right for Essential Quality to hit a new peak.

Medina Spirit – Santa Anita Derby (G1)

Medina Spirit found new life as one of the top 3-year-olds pointing toward the Kentucky Derby after stablemate Life Is Good left the discussion. In an era where Derby contenders race less than usual, he makes his fourth start this year.

A lot of handicappers wonder why 3-year-old Beyer Speed Figures on the Derby trail are lower than 20 years ago. At some point on DRF, Mr. Beyer himself pointed out how horses race less than usual on the trail, making it difficult for them to race into a form that produces high figures. The logic makes sense as horses benefit from experience.

With that in mind, perhaps Medina Spirit can blow the field away this week. He already is one of the major players in terms of speed figures.

Despite his eighth-length loss to Life Is Good in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), Medina Spirit shows a 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the second-place finish. Previously, Medina Spirit ran a 117 on TimeformUS in his Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) win and a 118 figure while closing for a runner-up finish to Life Is Good again in the Sham Stakes (G3).

In the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Medina Spirit is likely to use his tactical speed to his advantage or even set the pace if necessary. After all, Life Is Good is not present to run away with the lead. From there, it will take a great effort to beat Medina Spirit as he can withstand a fast pace.

Given the established 120 on TimeformUS in the San Felipe, Medina Spirit might hit the 125 mark on that scale and possibly assert himself as the leading Baffert contender in the process.