Credit these 3 Breeders' Cup losers for running well vs. pace

Whenever large and talented fields come together in Breeders’ Cup races, the pace tends to run on the fast side and the best horse does not always end up as the winner. But there was at least one occasion last weekend at Santa Anita where the pace went slow and a closer ran big.

Here are examples of three horses who turned in a notable race at the Breeders’ Cup against a pace scenario that worked against them.

Content – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

When the half-mile fraction set by the pacesetter Dreamfyre went in a slow 47.65, it became difficult for the closers to win this race. Instead, the early presser Hard to Justify ended up squeaking out a narrow win over two stalkers in Porta Fortuna and She Feels Pretty in an exciting stretch drive.

Note the late run of the European invader Content, who lagged in 12th and 13th through the first two quarters. After carefully navigating the traffic of the crowded field on the far turn, she found an opening too late.  

Despite getting clear too late, Content put in an impressive closing rush to finish fourth and only 3/4 of a length behind She Feels Pretty in third.

Even though Content just missed the trifecta, she arguably ran the best race, considering the slow pace and traffic.  

Warm Heart – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

With In Italian stretching out here, the pace was more likely to run on the fast side given her speed and other speed types. Once she took the lead and posted the first two fractions, the fast pace was clear.

As In Italian set a swift pace for the 10-furlong race with 22.95, 46.90 and 1:12.45 fractions, Warm Heart took up the inside stalking position in fourth and only two lengths behind In Italian. Because of how close Warm Heart sat, she had to work to keep up through the heated pace.

Warm Heart found an opening between In Italian and State Occasion at the top of the stretch. She took the lead in mid-stretch, but Inspiral had all the momentum after swinging to the outside and the benefit of sitting in eighth through the fast fractions set by In Italian early on.

Although Warm Heart did open up on the rest of the field near the wire, Inspiral went by the early stalker with a fast rush to prevail by a neck.

The effects of the pace were seen by the fades of In Italian and the horses surrounding her through the early stages. In Italian faded in mid-stretch to fifth after leading the field. In Italian’s closest pursuer State Occasion faded to ninth, although she was a 56-1 long shot. Also, Fev Rover went from a stalking third early to finishing a tired 11th.

Warm Heart had enough left in the tank to keep running late and lost by only a neck to a fellow European invader. She arguably ran a winning race in defeat.

Derma Sotogake – Breeders’ Cup Classic

As explained in a post-race Classic recap, Derma Sotogake initially took up a close stalking position in fourth through a fast pace set by Arabian Knight.

While under pressure from Saudi Crown, Arabian Knight laid down fast fractions of 22.46, 45.73 and 1:10.28. Derma Sotogake ran as part of the leading group and only a few lengths behind Arabian Knight early. 

On the far turn, the pace took its toll on Saudi Crown and Zandon, who were both struggling to maintain their positions at that point. White Abarrio, who sat right behind the leaders, made his move to take command of the lead as Saudi Crown began to give way and fold.

Meanwhile, Derma Sotogake kept pace around the turn with urging from Christophe Lemaire. Derma Sotogake did not close the gap just yet, but he kept White Abarrio within range as that one passed Arabian Knight.

In mid-stretch, Derma Sotogake finally started to close in on White Abarrio, who likely was tired after chasing the leaders from an even closer position early on. White Abarrio held on late over Derma Sotogake, but Derma Sotogake lost by only one length after enduring the pace in fourth through those hot fractions for the distance.

Arabian Knight ended up fading to fourth, although he put up a minor fight after setting the pace and only lost by 2 1/2 lengths. His pace adversary Saudi Crown completely folded to 10th and double-digit lengths behind White Abarrio. Plus, Zandon went from fifth as the tail end of the leading group to a tired ninth late. He never missed the superfecta before in his career. 

White Abarrio still turned in the best race in this case because he sat closer to Arabian Knight and Saudi Crown through the early pace. Considering the pace and six-month layoff, though, Derma Sotogake ran an excellent race as well. If he comes back as a 4-year-old, he should only improve.