3 Breeders' Cup long shots that can outperform odds

One good practice is finding long shots who can outperform expectations, whether that means they win or complete the trifecta for a nice payoff.

[2021 Breeders’ Cup draw: See post positions, jockeys, odds]

Below are three live long shots on Day 2 of the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint and $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic. Consider them mainly for the underneath slots of vertical wagers, although maybe one or two of them can win.

Del Mar Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Going to Vegas might seem like a surprising filly to highlight, given the high number of shippers from the East Coast and other countries entered. In recent years, the West Coast female turf division has not been very strong.

Regardless, a lack of speed is signed up, and that might help her.

In addition, Going to Vegas’ last two races at Del Mar appear strong. She won a July 16 optional claiming race on this course by 3 1/2 lengths and kept the momentum going with a 2 1/4-length win in the John C. Mabee Stakes (G2). In turf racing, a two- or three-length winning margin equals a strong performance in many cases. 

At Santa Anita, Going to Vegas then won the Rodeo Drive Stakes (G1) by a head over a good closer in Luck, who previously won her North America debut impressively enough to go off at 2-1 in the Rodeo Drive.

Umberto Rispoli hops on board the 4-year-old filly once again. Since rising in stature as one of the better California jockeys, Rispoli has had a reputation as an excellent turf rider. Given the importance of clean trips on turf, the jockey is weighed more heavily when handicapping a large field such as Filly & Mare Turf.

Then again, she just needs to use her speed from the rail. Going to Vegas may or may not hold on, but expect this filly to last longer than expected.

Del Mar Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Sprint

As stated in an earlier post, Jackie’s Warrior looks too strong to beat on top.

But bettors searching for a long shot underneath might find a good one in Lexitonian, who has been stuck on an odd bad race/good race pattern.

Three starts ago, Lexitonian was seen running last by 45 1/4 lengths in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1). Then on July 31, the “good” version of Lexitonian won the Vanderbilt Stakes (G1) at Saratoga by a head over Special Reserve. He also beat Firenze Fire, who was a non-threatening fifth.

In Lexitonian’s most recent start, he seemingly threw another bad race by finishing last by 31 3/4 lengths in the Forego Stakes (G1), also at Saratoga.

On closer inspection, though, Lexitonian gets some credit for making a decent move while approaching the turn after stumbling at the break.

Lexitonian obviously did not sustain the move, but it is hard to tell how much energy the gate stumble took out of him. He deserves a pass.

In a clean race, Lexitonian probably cannot beat Jackie’s Warrior. But if Lexitonian reverts back to his Vanderbilt form, he can hit the board at a nice price. Although he won the Vanderbilt after contesting the lead, Lexitonian does not need the front. He is capable of any running style.

Also note that Lexitonian ran a closing second in the local 2020 Bing Crosby Stakes (G1), which gives him successful experience on this dirt course while establishing his closing ability as well. In this stretch, he made a closing run along with Collusion Illusion after the pace collapsed.

Consider Lexitonian for the underneath slots. He can help the otherwise expected low payouts.

Del Mar Race 12: Breeders’ Cup Classic

The Pacific Classic (G1) winner Tripoli is an interesting long shot who had a rough trip in the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita.

On the first turn of the Awesome Again, Azul Coast carried Tripoli wide on purpose. Then on the far side, Azul Coast remained wide in the three path, blocking Tripoli from making an early move on the leader Medina Spirit.

Tripoli moved forward only when Azul Coast faded on the far turn.

Unfortunately, Tripoli still had to run wide and did not sustain the bid.

Given the wide trip all around the course, it makes sense that Tripoli came up empty in the stretch. He still ran well enough to complete the superfecta.

Two starts ago, Tripoli won the Pacific Classic on this course after taking advantage of an inside trip. He won by 1 1/4 lengths over Tizamagician, with another 4 1/2 lengths back to Dr Post in third. Note that the fifth-place Independence Hall recently won the Fayette Stakes (G2) at Keeneland.

With another inside trip, Tripoli might hit the board against this group, and he could even win if the bigger names in this race experience bad trips.

If Tripoli stays at 15-1 or higher, expect him to outperform his odds.