Ky. Derby prep: 2 potential stars are in El Camino Real Derby

Even though the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby typically attracts an odd group of weaker local horses and turf runners, the race does provide the opportunity to create a star if the horse can handle the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields on Saturday and transfer the form to Pimlico dirt in the Preakness Stakes three months later.  

Besides offering Kentucky Derby points, this race also offers an automatic berth to the Preakness Stakes to eligible finishers, which do not include those trained by Bob Baffert. Two years ago, Rombauer took advantage of the unique path by winning both the El Camino Real Derby and Preakness.

In this edition of the El Camino Real, there are two entries with the talent to repeat Rombauer’s success from two years ago: Gilmore and Harcyn.

Gilmore hails from the loaded Baffert barn. With Baffert’s horses taking up most of the spots in the Santa Anita prep races, Gilmore has found a points race where he can avoid stablemates such as Reincarnate, Newgate, Faustin, Havnameltdown, Fort Warren and more. In many of these races, Baffert controls more than half the field, which has created backlash among some bettors.   

Baffert entered Gilmore in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) on Jan. 29 before deciding to scratch him. Havnameltdown, who owned the class advantage as a multiple Grade 3 winner, held on over the recent maiden winner Faustin in second.

Gilmore has started in two maiden races while flashing the ability to strongly close each time. On Nov. 13 in a six-furlong Del Mar maiden race, Gilmore had four lengths to make up in the stretch and cut down the margin to 3/4 of a length. Almost one month later at Los Alamitos, Gilmore tried a one-mile maiden route and took the lead in mid-stretch before pulling clear by four lengths to score his first career win. 

For the latter effort, Gilmore earned a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. But when handicapping synthetic races, speed figures earned on dirt usually do not matter.

Judging by the way Gilmore finishes his races by closing strong as opposed to simply lasting, he is supposed to enjoy synthetic. Unlike in dirt racing, making the last move tends to win many turf and synthetic races.

Expect Gilmore to take a close stalking position behind the expected pacesetter Harcyn and Gilmore’s possible rabbit stablemate Nullarbor, who shares the same ownership groups and trainer as his better stablemate.

Regardless, Nullarbor will need to bring his A game to weaken the undefeated Harcyn, who broke his maiden locally at first asking by 3 3/4 lengths and won a local optional claimer last month by the same margin. In the latter win, Harcyn earned a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. On TimeformUS, 103 may seem slow, but he holds the high synthetic figure.

On the negative side, both of Harcyn's starts came at six furlongs, and now he stretches out to the nine-furlong distance. Although his pedigree favors handling the distance, the switch from six to nine furlongs for a pacesetter still feels like a daunting challenge, especially when there is a rabbit scheduled to make life difficult on the front end. 

When browsing through the names in Harcyn’s dam line, the second dam Set Them Free should stick out immediately, as she produced the 2005 Kentucky Derby champion Giacomo as well as the multiple graded stakes-winning router Tiago. Both horses earned more than $2 million.     

Given Baffert’s presence, at least Harcyn’s odds might hold up as fair. Harcyn’s trainer Steve Sherman has been successful up north, but the public bets Baffert blindly in points races. Harcyn should start as the second choice behind Gilmore. 

Does Harcyn need the lead? If there is a way for Harcyn to let Nullarbor cross over and sit off him through the initial stages, his chances to win would rise. But then again, sometimes pacesetters do not respond to rating.

Both Gilmore and Harcyn give the impression of potential stars, whether they show it by winning the El Camino Real and Preakness, or whether the time to shine comes down the road in other graded-stakes races.

No matter how these two horses run on Saturday, keep tabs on them.