Kentucky Oaks 2023: 2 fillies could want the early lead

With few real pacesetters reaching the top 14 on the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks points list, the pace scenario is setting up as a moderate to slow one. At the moment, two fillies in this nine-furlong dirt race might want the lead early on. The rest of the speed horses run better as stalking types.

Botanical and Flying Connection look like natural pacesetters on paper, although both fillies bring questions along with their instinct for leading.

Botanical set the pace uncontested in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park last month and maintained the lead in the stretch for a strong 2 1/2-length win over her Brad Cox-trained stablemate Flashy Gem in second.

She did not exactly light the synthetic track on fire with fractions of 24.58 seconds, 48.51 and 1:13.49. Nevertheless, Botanical made the impression that she possesses quality, at least when running at Turfway Park.

Earlier in March, Botanical used stalking tactics in the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes, which also was held over synthetic at Turfway. The pace went significantly faster this time, with the pacesetter B G Warrior running loose on the lead while setting fractions of 22.95 seconds, 45.69 and 1:10.75 for the one-mile race.

B G Warrior ended up fading in the stretch after those blazing fractions. Botanical closed strongly to win by 6 1/2 lengths over Jill Jitterbug in second as B G Warrior held on for third, 8 3/4 lengths behind Botanical.

Before those two races, Botanical set the pace uncontested in a Jan. 12 allowance optional claiming race at Turfway and won by 4 1/2 lengths. If the fractions appear reasonable and no one wants the lead, Botanical will take it.

Can Botanical convert that ability to set the pace on synthetic in a major dirt stakes race? Given the slow fractions Botanical set in the Bourbonette, the answer is not clear as she might need to run faster to set the pace against fillies with dirt experience. But again, the probable field lacks true speed horses. If Botanical does not secure the lead, she probably will settle close to the front and within stalking range early. 

In the case that Botanical cannot handle dirt speed, Flying Connection might find herself alone up front for trainer Todd Fincher. She took the Sunland Park route to the Kentucky Oaks and set the pace uncontested in both the Island Fashion Stakes in February and the Sunland Park Oaks last month.

Flying Connection knows how to click off legitimate fractions too. In the Sunland Oaks, Flying Connection led the field through fractions of 22.89 seconds, 46.09 and 1:11.14. TimeformUS gave those latter two fractions a red label.

Even though Flying Connection won the Sunland Park Oaks by only 2 1/4 lengths, the runner-up put 6 1/2 lengths on the third-place Don’t Get Pickled. Again, spaced-out margins usually are a good sign of quality. 

Flying Connection likely owns real ability relative to this somewhat weak crop of 3-year-old fillies. She ran a 107 on TimeformUS in the Sunland Park Oaks win, and that number is surprisingly higher than the 106 earned by Wet Paint in the Fantasy Stakes (G3). Wet Paint is supposed to go off as the mild favorite off of her Oaklawn Park wins.

Nevertheless, the step forward from Sunland Park to the Kentucky Oaks is not one to take lightly when handicapping. Sometimes horses cannot transfer their numbers from smaller racetracks to top-tier racetracks.

For what it is worth, Botanical posted a 113 on TimeformUS when capturing the Bourbonette Oaks. But again, a cloud of mystery surrounds Botanical’s races since Cox kept the filly away from dirt for some reason. Why campaign a good dirt filly on synthetic if she could handle dirt? 

Those are the two fillies most likely to find themselves up front in a moderately paced Kentucky Oaks. Although both fillies show flaws on paper, either of them could pop a big race if the pace ends up as slow as expected and one of them secures the lead out of the gate.