Acorn Stakes: 2 strong alternatives to flawed favorites

Although the Grade 1, $500,000 Acorn Stakes on Friday features two possible post-time favorites in the speedy Munnys Gold and Pretty Mischievous, who is a closer, both fillies show notable flaws that bettors should consider before accepting a low price on either of them.

To start the post off with Munnys Gold, she can run fast at sprint distances and has dominated Florida-bred fillies at six and seven furlongs in Florida.

Then in the Eight Belles Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs, Munnys Gold lost for the first time. But she turned in a great effort after setting the pace with Condensation nearby on the inside and Red Carpet Ready on the outside. Munnys Gold ended up battling Red Carpet Ready and just missed making a comeback late after Red Carpet Ready took the lead.

Munnys Gold ran well in the Eight Belles despite the loss. But she lacks any route experience heading into this 1 1/16-mile race. Her pedigree does not signal a router either as a daughter of Munnings and a half-sister to Gregory’s Pride, a turf sprinter.

Despite no routing experience, backers need to accept Munnys Gold as either the favorite or close second favorite, and that does not seem fair.

As for Pretty Mischievous, she deserves respect as the winner of the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) and Kentucky Oaks (G1). But overall, her wins feel underwhelming as she won the former by less than a length over a mild long shot named Miracle and the latter race by a neck over Gambling Girl.

Pretty Mischievous bettors need to accept the filly as either the favorite or second favorite. But even though Pretty Mischievous won the Kentucky Oaks, she looks a touch on the slow side in terms of speed figures and almost lost to fillies she is supposed to dominate on paper.  

An interesting alternative to both low-priced fillies is Dorth Vader, who faded to fifth in the Kentucky Oaks after running about a length behind the lead. Given the fast pace scenario, Dorth Vader’s effort is better than it looks on paper considering she still found herself in the mix at the top of the stretch.

In fact, Dorth Vader received a pace-adjusted 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and Pretty Mischievous earned a 114. They are not far apart.

In March, Dorth Vader won the Davona Dale Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream in an impressive manner by 4 3/4 lengths. On the surface, it might seem like Dorth Vader then took a step backward in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) when she faded to fourth late. But she also went about seven wide on the first turn, which affected the late run.

Dorth Vader will get to save ground now from the rail post. She also might take a step forward for her new trainer George Weaver after running her previous races under Michael Yates. Dorth Vader is a value at her morning-line odds of 10-1.

Besides Dorth Vader, Accede from the outside post 8 also could take the next step after a third-place finish in the Eight Belles, where she loomed on the outside of Red Carpet Ready and Munnys Gold in the stretch. Accede made only her second career start in that race, which makes the fact that she did not pass those two fillies late a lot more acceptable.

From the outside post, Accede could fall into a nice stalking position a few lengths behind the expected pacesetter Munnys Gold. If no one presses Munnys Gold, maybe Accede could even sit a little closer given she stretches out to a route distance for the first time, as the fractions typically run a little slower when horses go longer in distance.

At 8-1, Accede is a value play on the morning line. With all the attention on Munnys Gold and Pretty Mischievous, her odds should hold up around there.

Dorth Vader and Accede work as two great alternative options. Use them alongside the favorites in multi-race wagers, or play against them in vertical wagers. Also remember the offering of the two-day Filly-Mare Double, which these two fillies would fit in especially well.