Rebel Stakes: These 2 long shots could outrun the odds

Verifying heads into the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn with plenty of momentum after a great return win in a local optional race, but there are two entries with double-digit odds who could find themselves in the mix and outrun their odds on Saturday. Even if they don't win, these two options might make the underneath spots interesting.

The first long shot to discuss is Red Route One, who finds himself at 10-1 on the morning line after closing for second at 15-1 odds in the Southwest Stakes (G2) over slop late last month. He is trained by Steve Asmussen.

After initially settling in last and 10 lengths off the lead in the Southwest, it seemed as if Red Route One left himself with too many lengths to make up. That part is turned out true. Regardless, he cut through the field nicely on the far turn.

Arabian Knight looked strong on the lead, and it felt like he locked up the race with his pacesetting tactics for trainer Bob Baffert. To Red Route One’s credit, he rallied past Frosted Departure for second and moved two lengths ahead of him. But Red Route One did lose to the winner by 5 1/2 lengths.

In November, Red Route One closed for fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) after traffic problems around the far turn and into the stretch. The winner Instant Coffee went on to capture the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds and stands as one of the best 3-year-olds out there right now.

From a class standpoint, Red Route One fits great in the Rebel. The Gun Runner colt gets away from Arabian Knight and Instant Coffee in this spot, although the favorite Verifying does give the impression of a nice colt who could sit on the same level as those two horses after Saturday.

One flaw for Red Route One is his closing style, which brings up the problem of traffic in a large field such as this one. Plus, he loses Ricardo Santana Jr. to Gun Pilot and instead receives the services of Cristian Torres.

Regardless, Red Route One remains playable at 8-1 or higher. If not bet to win, he could spice up the second and third slots of vertical plays.

The second live long shot is Confidence Game, who seems like a generous 15-1 on the morning line after fading to third in the Lecomte against the sharp Instant Coffee. Confidence Game ended up losing by 7 3/4 lengths.

To Confidence Game’s credit, he tried to a chase the pacesetter Echo Again closely through deceptively fast fractions of 24.20, 47.19 and 1:12.02. TimeformUS applied the red label to the half-mile and six-furlong fraction.

When the field turned for home, Two Phil’s tipped outside of Echo Again and Confidence Game and went past both runners in the early part of the stretch run. But Two Phil’s did not get to enjoy his lead as the favored closer Instant Coffee rallied wide and went by both of them late.

Confidence Game still earned a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his effort.

Two starts ago, Confidence Game won an optional-claiming race by a half-length over Rocket Can on the Kentucky Jockey Club undercard at Churchill Downs back in November. Rocket Can went on to capture the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream. 

Besides Rocket Can returning to capture a points race next time, the other interesting part about the optional-claiming win is that Confidence Game used aggressive pacesetting tactics to win. Confidence Game also used that style to break his maiden at Churchill Downs last August.

Perhaps Confidence Game only needs to secure the lead to throw his best effort. In this race, Confidence Game has a shot at securing the lead depending on how Powerful breaks to his inside and Frosted Departure breaks to his outside. The other speed horses might back down from a speed duel.

In any case, Confidence Game’s final time of 1:43.67 beat Instant Coffee’s 1:45.25 in the featured Lecomte, although the comparison is not completely fair because of the radical pace differences between the two races.

Confidence Game received a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the optional-claiming win in November. Even though TimeformUS did not give this colt high numbers, it seems he is capable of more by now in his seventh career start and third attempt at a points race.

If Confidence Game remains at double-digit odds, then he is playable. If Powerful or Frosted Departure scratch for any reason, then move Confidence Game up even further, as he does seem to get brave after setting the pace.

Those are two viable long shots for the Rebel Stakes. With that said, Verifying still merits the most respect based on his impressive local return win, where he blasted the field by a good margin easily. But if anything happens to the favorite, then these two long shots can win.