2 Derby trail runners are built for Belmont Stakes

Not all editions of the Belmont Stakes run the same way, but in most cases the third leg of the Triple Crown favors 3-year-olds who can develop a steady rhythm early and and save the best part of their run for the stretch. Settling into a midpack position or higher can help too. 

With Kentucky Derby trail season in full swing, some runners competing on this path give the impression they will love the 1 1/2-mile marathon distance and the different strategies that work with it. 

Here are two 3-year-olds suited to the Belmont conditions.

Hit Show

Not long ago, Hit Show was one of the blog choices for Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 6, where the live wagering resulted in this son of Candy Ride floating up to 30-1 off his 20-1 odds. If the first Triple Crown leg does not work out, consider Hit Show an excellent Belmont prospect for trainer Brad Cox and owners Gary and Mary West.

Hit Show made a splash when stretching out to nine furlongs for the first time in the Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. He broke well and settled on the inside without giving up too many lengths to the leaders.

After stalking a fast pace, Hit Show started to move up steadily on the far-turn approach. Then, Hit Show tipped out and eventually passed Arctic Arrogance in the stretch. He opened up to win by 5 1/2 lengths.

When Hit Show moved up on the turn and passed Arctic Arrogance in the lane, he never blasted forward until the final part of the race. In the Belmont Stakes, Hit Show must reserve energy in the same style and not try to break the race open too soon so he can handle 1 1/2 miles. 

Most horses who shoot their best move on the long final turn in the Belmont end up becoming tired late because of the distance and different track configuration compared to most mid-sized tracks. But a patient trip where the stalker bursts forward in mid-stretch can work.  

Note the stamina underneath. Hit Show’s dam Actress won only twice in her career when she took the 2017 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) and Comely Stakes (G3), and both races came at nine furlongs. Actress is the daughter of Tapit, who has sired multiple Belmont Stakes winners.

No matter what happens at Churchill Downs, Hit Show likely will pose a major threat in the Belmont given his stamina and running style.  

Slip Mahoney

Right off the bat, the pedigree of Slip Mahoney stands out as one suited for marathons with route influences on top and bottom.

This grey colt is the son of Arrogate, who won 1 1/4-mile races such as the 2016 Travers Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic, and 2017 Dubai World Cup before tailing off form. Most of his progeny can go long.

On the bottom side, Slip Mahoney’s dam Got Lucky competed successfully as a dirt router whose career highlight came when she won the 2015 Spinster Stakes (G1). Got Lucky’s sire A.P. Indy, known as an excellent stamina influence, won the Belmont Stakes himself back in 1992. Most of the A.P. Indy family members who become sires, including his grandson Tapit, end up creating runners who prefer longer routes.

With the pedigree in mind, it is interesting that trainer Brad Cox has not stretched out Slip Mahoney past one mile yet in his four-race career.

In Slip Mahoney’s most recent start, he took a shot at the one-mile Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. After a slow break combined with a fast pace ahead of him put Slip Mahoney in last early, he made a wide move on the turn and kept running well enough to pick up second.

Slip Mahoney lost by 7 1/2 lengths to Raise Cain, but Raise Cain had the inside path while Slip Mahoney mounted his rally wide in a ground-losing manner. Although he lost by a clear margin, Slip Mahoney still went forward steadily and kept passing other horses until the finish. 

In January, Slip Mahoney broke his maiden at Aqueduct in a one-mile race. Slip Mahoney contested the lead that time before putting away his pace rival and holding off a late run from Crupi in the stretch.

Slip Mahoney’s TimeformUS Pace Figures of 107, 111 and 109 for the maiden race were moderate numbers resulting in an even tempo throughout. Those numbers signal that Slip Mahoney likes to run in a steady manner without accelerating too fast or too slow early.

When the pace went fast in the Gotham, Slip Mahoney had trouble adjusting in the first half-mile. But when thinking about the Belmont pace scenario and how it usually develops in a slow and steady manner (with some exceptions), Slip Mahoney should end up loving the grind.  

If Slip Mahoney enters the Belmont and the “slow” version of the race develops, expect Slip Mahoney to thrive under the conditions.