Who's in, out and on the 2021 Kentucky Derby points bubble?
After back-to-back weekends where we saw three prep races, the road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby featured only one stop on Saturday. Returning to Oaklawn for the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, the top three finishers landed on the leaderboard for the first time, while three previous points race winners failed to take home any additional points.
[RELATED: Concert Tour leads Baffert exacta with sparkling Rebel win]
Let's jump in and analyze who's in, out, and on the bubble by running down the changes prompted by Saturday's results.
Newly in
Concert Tour, 50 points
Unlike his stablemate Freedom Fighter, Concert Tour stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby immediately following the San Vicente (G2). In his first race since winning the graded stakes sprint at seven furlongs, the son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense cruised through the added distance en route to an impressive win and automatic qualification for the Kentucky Derby. As Bob Baffert has done with other Kentucky Derby contenders sent to Oaklawn, the West Coast trainer likely will keep his 3-year-old there and enter him in the Arkansas Derby.
On the bubble
Hozier, 20 points
It can be hard to gauge how well a horse that just broke his maiden will do in his first graded stakes start, but Hozier passed the test. He also proved to be good enough to land on the Kentucky Derby radar by finishing second in the Rebel. The 20 points he earned might not be enough to qualify, but it puts Bob Baffert's other Rebel starter in a good spot leading into this next race. If his connections keep him on the trail and opt for any of the remaining races outside of the Lexington Stakes (G3), Hozier could earn enough points with a top three finish or sneak in with a fourth-place effort.
Keepmeinmind, 18 points
A successful juvenile season doesn't guarantee your qualification because the points don't usually add up. Such is the case for the son of Laobon, who capped off this 2-year-old campaign with a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) after finishing third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and second in the Breeders' Futurity (G1). Since Keepmeinmind finished sixth in his 3-year-old debut, he's down to his last chance to qualify next time out.
Still out
Caddo River, 10 points
The highly anticipated return for the son of Hard Spun, trained by Brad Cox, fell flat in the Rebel. Following his win at Oaklawn in the Smarty Jones, Caddo River was sent off as the post-time favorite, but his attempt to pass Concert Tour was empty. The Rebel was his first race at a distance over 1 mile, so to qualify for the Kentucky Derby in his next race, he must prove that the added distance wasn't why he didn't fare well in the Rebel and finished fifth.
Get Her Number, 10 points
Though his juvenile season was a success, and he made an impression with a win in the American Pharoah (G1), it didn't equal enough points to move him onto the bubble for the start of his sophomore campaign. Saturday's challenge was to push closer to breaking through to the top 20 on the leaderboard after a four-month layoff by getting a top four finish, but he came up short. By finishing seventh in the Rebel, Get Her Number is another early Kentucky Derby contender that is down to his final chance to qualify next time out.
Big Lake, 10 points
The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah might get his shot at the roses, but he's going to have to show a little more of his sire next time out. Because the Rebel was his first Kentucky Derby points race, the 10 points he earned by finishing third must be coupled with an additional top three finish if we're going to see him on the first Saturday in May. He showed signs of being ready for a longer distance, so his next start could become the race that earns him his ticket to the Kentucky Derby.
Super Stock, 9 points
Though the Rebel was the third time Super Stock finished inside the top four of a points race, his Kentucky Derby hopes still hinge on his performance next time out. Saturday was the first time he finished outside the top three since his first career race, so his qualifying chances should still be considered reasonable, seeing that he's found the top three in five of his seven career races.
Looking ahead
Next weekend the road to the Kentucky Derby resumes with only one race, but the Louisiana Derby (G2) represents the first of eight races where the points payout rises to its highest level; a scale of 100-40-20-10. Click here to look at the remaining races on the points series schedule and the points awarded for each contest.
Kentucky Derby 2021 points leaderboard
Note: One spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate is an invitation to the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby point leaders. The invitation order of preference will be final after the March 27 Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse.
Note: One spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate is an invitation to the European Road to the Kentucky Derby point leaders. The invitation order of preference will be final after the April 1 Cardinal Condition Stakes at Chelmsford City.
| Rank | Horse | Pts | Trainer | Stakes earnings* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greatest Honour | 60 | Shug McGaughey III | $295,740 |
| 2 | Life Is Good | 60 | Bob Baffert | $240,000 |
| 3 | Mandaloun | 52 | Brad Cox | $260,000 |
| 4 | Concert Tour | 50 | Bob Baffert | $720,000 |
| 5 | $-Helium | 50 | Mark Casse | $255,492 |
| 6 | $-Weyburn | 50 | Jimmy Jerkens | $165,000 |
| 7 | Essential Quality | 40 | Brad Cox | $1,730,000 |
| 8 | Medina Spirit | 34 | Bob Baffert | $140,000 |
| 9 | Midnight Bourbon | 26 | Steve Asmussen | $230,000 |
| 10 | Proxy | 24 | Mike Stidham | $120,000 |
| 11 | Hidden Stash | 22 | Vicki Oliver | $90,000 |
| 12 | Hozier | 20 | Bob Baffert | $200,000 |
| — | +Drain the Clock | 20 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | $163,950 |
| 13 | Crowded Trade | 20 | Chad Brown | $60,000 |
| 14 | Keepmeinmind | 18 | Robertino Diodoro | $385,707 |
| 15 | Spielberg | 17 | Bob Baffert | $362,000 |
| — | Jackie's Warrior | 14 | Steve Asmussen | $532,500 |
| 16 | Rombauer | 14 | Michael McCarthy | $180,500 |
| 17 | Capo Kane | 12 | Harold Wyner | $115,500 |
| 18 | Papetu | 11 | Antonio Sano | $68,425 |
| 19 | Moonlite Strike | 11 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | $42,500 |
| 20 | Hot Rod Charlie | 10 | Doug O'Neill | $352,000 |
| 21 | Get Her Number | 10 | Peter Miller | $192,667 |
| 22 | Sittin On Go | 10 | Dale Romans | $141,800 |
| 23 | Risk Taking | 10 | Chad Brown | $137,500 |
| 24 | Caddo River | 10 | Brad Cox | $120,000 |
| 25 | Candy Man Rocket | 10 | Bill Mott | $120,000 |
| 26 | Highly Motivated | 10 | Chad Brown | $111,000 |
| 27 | Big Lake | 10 | Steve Asmussen | $100,000 |
| 28 | Brooklyn Strong | 10 | Daniel Velazquez | $82,500 |
| 29 | Hush of a Storm | 10 | Bill Morey | $43,710 |
| 30 | Dream Shake | 10 | Peter Eurton | $36,000 |
| 31 | Super Stock | 9 | Steve Asmussen | $109,000 |
| 32 | Tarantino | 9 | Rodolphe Brisset | $72,650 |
| 33 | Roman Centurian | 9 | Simon Callaghan | $38,000 |
| 34 | Cowan | 8 | Steve Asmussen | $620,477 |
| — | Freedom Fighter | 5 | Bob Baffert | $58,000 |
| 35 | Unbridled Honor | 5 | Todd Pletcher | $17,500 |
| 36 | O Besos | 5 | Greg Foley | $16,000 |
| — | +Reinvestment Risk | 4 | Chad Brown | $120,000 |
| 37 | Nova Rags | 4 | Bill Mott | $76,000 |
| — | +f-Javanica | 4 | Eoin Harty | $75,640 |
| 38 | Overtook | 4 | Todd Pletcher | $50,000 |
| — | +Ten for Ten | 4 | Shug McGaughey III | $50,000 |
| 39 | The Great One | 4 | Doug O'Neill | $46,500 |
| — | +Eagle Orb | 4 | Rudy Rodriguez | $40,000 |
| 40 | Smiley Sobotka | 4 | Dale Romans | $38,400 |
| 41 | Like the King | 4 | Wesley Ward | $18,800 |
| 42 | Gretzky the Great | 2 | Mark Casse | $218,021 |
| — | Arabian Prince | 2 | Dallas Stewart | $28,063 |
| 43 | Waspirant | 2 | John Shirreffs | $26,000 |
| 44 | Petruchio | 2 | Richard Mandella | $24,450 |
| 45 | Known Agenda | 2 | Todd Pletcher | $24,000 |
| 46 | Prime Factor | 2 | Todd Pletcher | $22,200 |
| — | Hold the Salsa | 2 | Richard Lugovich | $19,125 |
| — | +Swill | 2 | Brad Cox | $18,600 |
| — | Big Thorn | 2 | Steve Asmussen | $16,000 |
| 47 | Parnelli | 2 | John Shirreffs | $14,000 |
| — | +Govenor's Party | 2 | Daniel Franko | $12,500 |
| 48 | Pickin' Time | 1 | Kelly Breen | $157,925 |
| 49 | Red Flag | 1 | John Shirreffs | $84,000 |
| — | +Therideofalifetime | 1 | Ignacio Correas IV | $39,500 |
| — | +Woodhouse | 1 | C.R. Trout | $37,500 |
| — | +Boca Boy | 1 | Cheryl Winebaugh | $24,400 |
| — | +Upstriker | 1 | Ron Moquett | $20,000 |
| 50 | Santa Cruiser | 1 | Keith Desormeaux | $19,500 |
| — | +Civil War | 1 | Tom Albertrani | $16,875 |
| — | +Royal Number | 1 | Mike Trombetta | $15,000 |
| — | +It's My House | 1 | James Thomas | $6,000 |
| — | +Hard Rye Guy | 1 | Ian Wilkes | $4,700 |
Bold = Update from previously published Leaderboard.
+ = Not Triple Crown Nominated
$ = The connections have paid the $6,000 late Triple Crown nomination fee (due by March 29)
Italics = no recent published workout
Strikethrough = Sidelined, inactive or appears to be no longer under serious Kentucky Derby consideration.