Key trends for picking the Kentucky Derby 2020 winner

Handicapping the Kentucky Derby can present several challenges. And now, since the 2020 Kentucky Derby was postponed, there is even more data to review in advance of Saturday's feature race.

So, how to crack the code? Unfortunately, there isn't a basic pattern available for finding the winner in any race. Even if you feel like you pushed all the right buttons, you can’t unlock the safe until the race results are official.

Despite the amount of information that needs to be reviewed and considered, there have been simple noticeable patterns over the last several years. These identifiers can be used as a practical assessment of the contenders because the indicators have produced a solid record in the points system era. Though this year's race will be contested under significantly different circumstances, including the horses being four months older and no fans in stands, we can still apply this information to be considered through historical trends.

100-point club

Since the current qualification scoring system began with the 2013 Kentucky Derby, the first six winners each scored at least 100 points. In 2019, this trend was set to continue once Maximum Security crossed the finish line, but it later dissolved when the stewards announced his disqualification. As a result, Country House became the first Kentucky Derby winner that did not earn at least 100 points in the qualification series.

Since this year's series was extended into well beyond April, there were plenty of more opportunities to score. However, the Kentucky Derby's postponement also forced contenders off the trail because injury, including several that scored more than 100 points.

So, leading into Saturday, there are only four starters that have crossed the 100-point threshold:

1. Tiz the Law, 372 points

2. Authentic, 200 points

3. Honor A. P., 140 points

4. Ny Traffic, 110 points

Winning the final prep race

Since the inaugural Kentucky Derby in the points system era, when Orb won the roses, no other winner failed to win their final prep race until last year; Country House finished third in the Arkansas Derby. Before the points sytem, Super Saver in 2010 was the latest Kentucky Derby winner that did not win his final prep race.

Remaining contenders:

1. Tiz the Law, 1st Travers Stakes
2. Authentic, 1st Haskell Stakes

3-year-old perfection

Before 2019, the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby after losing a prep race in his sophomore campaign was Animal Kingdom in 2011. He finished second in an allowance optional claiming race before winning the Spiral Stakes.

The trend is compromised because of the postponed race date, but the pattern still has a good chance because Tiz the Law has yet to lose in 2020.

Although Authentic trails Tiz the Law on this category as well, there's a lot to admire about a horse that has lost only one time in his career. The hard-fought defeat was a runner-up finish to Honor A.P. in the Santa Anita Derby.

Remaining contender: Tiz the Law

Winning time in final prep

While winning the final prep race has been key over the last several years, so has been the final time and distance of that race.

Dating back to 2013, Orb is the only Kentucky Derby winner that did not compete in a final prep race with a winning time faster than 1:50.00. He won that race and drew clear in the final furlong after stalking modest fractions out front, so we might be able to dismiss his winning time of 1:50.87.

This year, most of the field's final prep races were at a distance of at least 1 1/8 miles, and almost all of them had a winning time faster than 1:50.00. The one that did not, however, was the Haskell (1:50.45) which leaves two boxes unchecked for the winner, Authentic. The son of Into Mischief did control the pace, though, and Mike Smith didn't have to ask a lot from him until Ny Traffic made a solid run in the final furlong. 

Charismatic was the last winner that raced at a distance less than 1 1/8 miles before entering the Kentucky Derby, when the 1999 Lexington Stakes was his final stop. There are starters in this year's field that also raced a distance of 1 1/16 miles last out even though they did go 1 1/8 miles earlier in the 3-year-old season. Despite having to enter at a shorter distance because of the revised qualification schedule, the list includes Thousand Words, Honor A. P. and Storm the Court.

Remaining contender: Tiz the Law

The final prep race for Tiz the Law was unique because the Travers is usually raced after the Kentucky Derby, and the distance is the same as the Kentucky Derby. What's impressive is that the winning time was 2:00.95, the fastest since Arrogate set the track record in 2016. So, measuring his first 1 1/8 miles against the trend is not a concern for Tiz the Law. 

Conclusion

Because of the injury that scratched Art Collector from the Kentucky Derby, Tiz the Law is the only horse that checks all of the boxes in this analysis. But, as we saw last year, Maximum Security was the only one left standing, and he didn't become the official winner.

So, as we learned in last year's contest, it's never a bad idea to take a shot with a complete outlier like many that came before. Based on these simple measurements, this analysis has one clear winner, and a conclusion that already is obvious: Tiz the Law is going to be tough to beat.

But will these patterns prevail in 2020? They certainly can behind the overwhelming favorite, or has the complexity of this year and the other surrounding factors opened the door for another starter to deal Tiz the Law his first loss of the 3-year-old season?