History says to ignore January Derby preps

The road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby was one that no one should ever want to travel down again. Despite its bumps, detours and complicated schedule, however, the day still arrived, and a champion earned the prestigious victory.

Authentic became the first Kentucky Derby winner since Barbaro that started in a graded stakes race in the month of January.

The closest since the points system started was in 2014 when California Chrome won the California Cup Derby. The differences were that it was not a graded stakes race, and the contest was not included in the Kentucky Derby points system set of races.

However, racing in January is not unheard of, as there have been other Kentucky Derby winners that also ran in the first month of the year. But as it turned out, those races were just a prelude to the Derby trail.

In 2013, Orb's first race after he broke his maiden at Aqueduct in November was an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park. After notching his second win in as many starts, the son of Malibu Moon entered and won his debut race on the Kentucky Derby trail next time out.

Four years later, Always Dreaming waited even longer before he won his first race. After striking out in his first two attempts, the son of Bodemiester took time off from racing but returned in January as a horse on a mission. Following his maiden win at Tampa Bay Downs, he won his debut race at Gulfstream in February before coming back to win the Florida Derby in March.

Whichever way you look at 2019, the same is true for Country House and Maximum Security. The pair raced in January, but neither was a stakes race, and they didn't make their first start in a Kentucky Derby points race until after January.

As for the other three Kentucky Derby winners since 2013, none of them raced in January. Nyquist did not run in November, December or January before returning to the Derby trail in February. The following year, American Pharoah's layoff was a bit longer. His final race of the Juvenile season came in late September, and he did not race again until March. Finally, Justify did not start his racing career until February of his 3-year-old season.

What's unusual about these three Kentucky Derby winners is that this trend became consistent in the years leading up to the points system era. In the final six years of the previous qualification system — graded stakes earnings — the Kentucky Derby winner did not race in January between 2007 and 2012.

So, whether it was a non-graded stakes race or no races at all, the formula chosen most often by the winning connections is to bypass graded stakes races in January. In the last 14 years, and from two different qualification systems, it's happened only once.

But if you consider only the years when the Kentucky Derby was raced in its traditional spot on the calendar, no one has done it since Barbaro won the Grade 3 Tropical Park Derby on Jan. 1, 2006. As for the Holy Bull, which we just saw over the weekend, Funny Cide is the most recent Kentucky Derby winner that used this race in the 3-year-old season before scoring in the main event under the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May.

Here's a look back at the last 14 Kentucky Derby winners and how they started their 3-year-old season. 

The intent here isn't to downgrade any of the performances we saw in January of this year. The objective also isn't to rule out any contenders that did start in a graded stake in the first month of the 3-year-old season. Finally, it wouldn’t be logical to say that Authentic, or any of the horses that started in a graded stake race last January, could not have won the Kentucky Derby if it wasn’t postponed.

Instead, it's an interesting pattern to look at when we assess the hopefuls that we have seen so far on the road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby and look ahead to the upcoming qualification races, where the points will increase. Trends don't last forever, and this could easily be one that doesn't stick around much longer.

Until then, can any of the starters from these January Kentucky Derby prep races, including Life is Good, Medina Spirit and Greatest Honour, become the next one to do it?

Jerome Stakes

Sham Stakes

Lecomte Stakes

Smarty Jones

Robert B. Lewis (raced in January for the first time since 2004)

Holy Bull