5 trends key to picking a Kentucky Derby 2018 winner

Handicapping the 2018 Kentucky Derby — the ultimate race for horse players to unscramble — presents a number of challenges given its 20-horse field and 1 1/4-mile distance. Being one of the oldest premier races in the world, we also have available a whole lot of information to analyze via historical trends.

Since the scoring system began with the 2013 running, the last five Kentucky Derby winners each scored at least 100 points. In 2015, American Pharoah became the first Kentucky Derby winner under the points system that was not ranked at the top of the standings leading into the first Saturday in May. Orb and California Chrome both held that spot with 150 points while American Pharoah was sitting in the fourth position with 160 points. In 2016, Nyquist ranked 2nd with 130 and Always Dreaming sat even further back, tied for 6th, with 100 points last year. 

Right away, we're losing the majority of the field if you impart this trend. Here's who fits the bill: 

1.    Magnum Moon - Todd Pletcher - 150    

2.    Good Magic - Chad Brown - 134    

3.    Audible - Todd Pletcher - 110    

4.    Noble Indy - Todd Pletcher - 110    

5.    Vino Rosso - Todd Pletcher - 107    

6.    Bolt d'Oro - Mick Ruis - 104    

7.    Enticed - Kiaran McLaughlin - 103    

8.    Mendelssohn - Aidan O'Brien - 100    

The last horse to score in the Kentucky Derby having not won his final prep race was Super Saver in 2010. Prior to the Kentucky Derby, Super Saver finished third in the Tampa Bay Derby and second in the Arkansas Derby. Following trainer Todd Pletcher's first Kentucky Derby win, the trend began, and Always Dreaming continued it last spring off a Florida Derby victory. A look at our last seven winners and their final prep race before they won the roses.

2011  Animal Kingdom  1st - Spiral Stakes

2012  I'll Have Another  1st - Santa Anita Derby

2013  Orb  1st - Florida Derby

2014  California Chrome  1st - Santa Anita Derby

2015  American Pharoah  1st - Arkansas Derby

2016  Nyquist  - 1st Florida Derby

2017  Always Dreaming  - 1st Florida Derby  

Trend losers: Bolt d'Oro, Enticed.

Remaining contenders: Audible, Good Magic, Justify, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn, Noble Indy, Vino Rosso.

Over the last six years, beginning with I'll Have Another in 2012, the Kentucky Derby winner entered Churchill Down undefeated at age 3. Of the six, only Nyquist was able to leave the Louisville with an overall undefeated record. With that accomplishment, the Doug O'Neill trainee and son of Uncle Mo joined an elite club of undefeated champions that includes Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (2006), Smarty Jones (2004), Seattle

Slew (1977), Majestic Prince (1969), Morvich (1922) and Regret (1915).

The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby after losing a prep race in his sophomore campaign was Animal Kingdom in 2011. He finished second in an Allowance Optional Claiming race prior to winning the Spiral Stakes. 

Trend losers: Good Magic, Noble Indy, Vino Rosso. 

Remaining Contenders: Audible, Justify, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn.

While winning a final prep race has been key over the last several years, so too has been the final time. To win the Kentucky Derby, a contender has to be ready for an aggressive pace. So, finding a solid one to gear up and get ready for the high cruising speed that is required in the Kentucky Derby in their final prep race can be extremely helpful. 

The key to this trend with respect to the final prep race is twofold: a winning time below 1:50.00 going a distance of 1 1/8 miles. What is not being considered is whether or not the eventual Kentucky Derby winner won his final race at this distance. 

Over the last 26 years, there have only been four Kentucky Derby winners whose final prep race was slower than 1:50.00 at nine furlongs. Of those four, two of them raced on an All-Weather Track in their final prep (Street Sense in 2007 and Animal Kingdom in 2011). Because this racing surface is traditionally slower than dirt, it shouldn't be surprising and may even provide variance worth considering in relation to this trend.  

The two Kentucky Derby winners since 1991 that did not end their prep season inside of race that had a winning time faster than 1:50 flat was Orb in 2013 and Mine That Bird in 2009. The winning time by Orb in the Florida Derby was 1:50.87. Mine That Bird finished fourth in the Sunland Derby which had a winning time of 1:50.02. 

The one outlier with this trend in the last 26 years is Charismatic. So, when you add 1999 Kentucky Derby champion to the mix, it technically brings the total number up to five winners that did not check the box next to sub 1:50 and 1 1/8 miles in their final race. However, Charismatic is a unique outlier because he is also the last winner that made the Lexington Stakes his final stop before moving on to claim the roses. Though this prep was raced at 1 1/16 miles, it was plenty fast, as he nearly broke the track record in that win. In addition, his start prior to that race was the Santa Anita Derby and the winning time that year was 1:48.92. 

As for the others, there were two major prep races that ended with a winning time slower than 1:50.00. 

2018 Louisiana Derby: 1:50.28

2018 Blue Grass Stakes: 1:50.18

It’s only less than half of a second, but will this trend hold firm in 2018 or will any of these probable starters be able to join Orb and Mine That Bird? Noble Indy, Lone Sailor, Good Magic, Flameaway, Free Drop Billy

Remaining Contenders: Audible, Justify, Magnum Moon 

Worth Considering: *Mendelssohn

*Although the UAE Derby wasn't raced from start to finish over a distance of 1 1/8 miles, the winner is the owner of a new track record over a distance of 1 3/16 miles, a half furlong than his rivals have raced.

Something that used to be very common leading up to the Kentucky Derby was racing more frequently as a 3-year-old. Starting three times in the sophomore season was just as common then as it is now, but racing at least four times or more is no longer a regular path. The last Kentucky Derby winner to race four times as a three-year-old prior to the first Saturday in May was Smarty Jones in 2004. Since then, the winner has started in either two or three races prior to the Kentucky Derby. 

In 2018, the list of probable starters that have prepped with four races this year includes Flameaway, My Boy Jack, Firenze Fire and Combatant. 

As for one of the contenders left remaining before this trend was introduced, the uphill battle to overcome the Apollo Curse just got tougher. Just like Smarty Jones in 2004, Magnum Moon has also raced one time in each of the four months leading into May. So the question that presents itself with this trend: Was the Arkansas Derby Magnum Moon's peak performance? 

Remaining contenders: Audible and Justify

This leaves us with two big questions: Can Justify end the Apollo Curse, or will 2018 provide us with a winner that will defy these trends? In my estimation, I answer yes to both of those questions.  

Simply put, if a trio of connections were to join forces to end the drought, WinStar Farm, Bob Baffert and Mike Smith would be at the top of anyone’s list. Combine these parties with the potential and talent of a horse like Justify and 2018 could certainly be the year. 

As for any outliers that will have to overcome some of these trends there are two at the very top of my list. First is Mendelssohn, a UAE Derby winner that has three important bullet points on his resume: He's already raced and won in North America, he's won on dirt, and his win in Dubai was fabulous. Add those three to the trends he has checked off on this list and Mendelssohn can be considered a formidable choice in 2018. 

Good Magic is my leading outlier. He didn't come out as strong in the Fountain of Youth as we expected him to and the Blue Grass Stakes wasn't that fast. So, he missed out on two important trends that were noted, but the 2-year-old champion could still be saving his best for next weekend along with Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz, a dynamite team that have already won a lot of big races together.