Mr. Z is the One to Beat in the Iroquois Stakes
Our loveable juveniles are finding their stride and the race to the Breeders’ Cup is gaining speed. The Breeders’ Cup Challenge for the Juvenile Division begins today with the 2014 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs but how many of you are aware that the previous Juvenile Stakes races still count for something?
The Breeders’ Cup is determined to make sure that the best of the best file into the starting gate for each of the divisions. To do that, a system has to be in place to give credit where credit is due. Thus, the backup plan to the Breeders’ Cup Challenge format is a points system in which horses are ranked based on their performances in graded stakes races.
The four races and schedule that account for the Breeders’ Cup Challenge in the Juvenile division:
Iroquois Stakes Churchill Downs 6-Sep FrontRunner Stakes Santa Anita 27-Sep Breeders’ Futurity Keeneland 4-Oct Champagne Stakes Belmont Park 4-Oct
With only four races you should see why there needs to be another system in place to find the horses that are the most deserving of an entry. In short, it’s because only four will receive the advantage of an automatic entry into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with the privilege of having their pre-entry and entry fees waived while also receiving a travel stipend if they will be moving in from outside of the host state, California and Santa Anita Park.
To the points system, where several lively Juveniles have already made a statement about their potential and why they deserve one of the fourteen post positions.
Much like the Kentucky Derby qualification system it’s all about where you finish in the most important races, the ones that are graded.
Grade 1 10 6 4 Grade 2 6 4 2 Grade 3 4 2 1
However, unlike the Kentucky Derby format, the points, along with the automatic qualifiers, only account for seven of the 14 post positions. The other seven will be selected by the experts. In many cases the remaining seven are often selected because they have points attached to their resume and already proved their potential against top class.
Here is the current ranking’s before the Iroquois Stakes kicks off this afternoon and the first automatic qualifier is awarded a ticket to the big show.
| I Spent It | 12 |
| American Pharoah | 10 |
| Competitive Edge | 10 |
| Skyway | 7 |
| Calculator | 6 |
| Mr. Z | 6 |
| Cinco Charlie | 5 |
| Big Trouble | 4 |
| Henry's Holiday | 4 |
| Iron Fist | 4 |
| Sharm | 4 |
| Bad Read Sanchez | 2 |
| Silverhill (R1) | 2 |
| W V Jetsetter (R1) | 2 |
From this list the juvenile that should garner the most attention with respect to the Iroquois Stakes is Mr. Z and there should be no question about his status as the Morning Line favorite.
On July 19 he finished runner-up to Big Trouble in the G3 Sanford before coming back to repeat that performance against another top Juvenile, I Spent It, in the G2 Saratoga Special. Based on these two performances and what we can expect from him in the G3 Iroquois Stakes, I think it’s safe to say that Mr. Z will qualify in for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in one of the three ways: automatically, by points or by the experts.
More about Mr. Z that grabs your attention revolves around the connections. Besides Zayat Stables and the legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas, it’s the bloodlines that are too hard to ignore. By Malibu Moon, sire to 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb, and Stormy Bear whose sire was the renowned American Stallion, Storm Cat.
Now that is a lot to bet against. But, that’s where exotic wagering can always be fruitful should an unlikely finish occur. There are a few horses that stand out to me as capable to beat or at least finish in stride with Mr. Z.
The first is a horse that squared off against Mr. Z his MSW debut. While Mr. Z won his inaugural race, Hashtag Bourbon finished third. From there he fired back to win the Mountaineer Juvenile. Today will be his second lifetime start at Churchill Downs and only the third of his career. The biggest advantage for the Kellyn Gorder trained colt is his sire, Super Saver, who is red hot right now.
Another horse that doesn’t have quite the resume but might also have the same potential is Danny Boy, trained by Dale Romans and owned by Donegal Racing. His pedigree on the other hand may be equal, by Harlan’s Holiday – Unbridled Beauty by Unbridled Song, so I won’t be surprised if this colt scores in his second career race shortly after winning his MSW debut.
Trainer Steve Asmussen has a pair that deserves a good look: Bold Conquest, by Curlin, with Joel Rosario aboard and Lucky Player, by Lookin at Lucky, with Ricardo Santana in the irons.
The complete field for the Iroquois Stakes:
| PP | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | M/L |
| 1 | Hashtag Bourbon | B J Hernandez, Jr. | K Gorder | 4-1 |
| 2 | Mr. Z | C J Lanerie | D W Lukas | 5-2 |
| 3 | Dekabrist | D A Osorio | G Dorochenko | 20-1 |
| 4 | Holy Frazier | C Landeros | K G McPeek | 12-1 |
| 5 | Lucky Player | R Santana, Jr. | S M Asmussen | 5-1 |
| 6 | Cleveland Sound | S Bridgmohan | H G Motion | 6-1 |
| 7 | Danny Boy | M Mena | D L Romans | 5-1 |
| 8 | Bold Conquest | J Rosario | S M Asmussen | 4-1 |
| 9 | The Gorilla Man | J L Castanon | J A Bordonaro | 30-1 |
To date, no winner of the Iroquois Stakes has ever gone on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or the Kentucky Derby the following year. As for the horse in this year’s field that I predict to have the best shot at ending one of these two streaks: the accomplished and respectable Mr. Z.