Modern Kentucky Derby winners share common beginnings

Always seeking an edge, attempting to sort through which Kentucky Derby 2019 hopeful looks best suited to prevail on the first Saturday in May, I recently realized a timely trend.

Only three times in the last 12 years has the eventual Kentucky Derby winner made his 3-year-old debut in January. And none of those trio of January starts came in stakes races traditionally considered Derby preps.

So consider what that means: None of what we've seen over the last month -- January included the Jerome Stakes, Sham Stakes, Lecomte Stakes and Smarty Jones Stakes -- produced a Derby winner in more than a decade.

As for those few January runners...

Orb, the son of Malibu Moon, didn't break his maiden until his fourth career start. After he notched his Maiden Special Weight victory in the juvenile season, his connections moved him gradually up in class. On January 26, 2013, Orb won for the second time in an Allowance Optional Claiming race Gulfstream Park. 

The next season, California Chrome made five stakes starts as a 2-year-old, including in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. Having won the King Glorious for California-breds at Hollywood Park in December, he returned to the races the next mon. On January 25, 2014, the son of Lucky Pulpit beat state-breds again in Santa Anita's California Cup Derby.

Always Dreaming, 0-for-2 in Maiden Special Weight races as a juvenile, received some time off after beginning his career early. On January 25, 2017, the son of Bodemeister returned to win in his third start at Tampa Bay Downs.

So, to add, none of those three started their Derby-winning campaigns in graded stakes company. In the current era of qualifying to run at Churchill Downs, they also left January with zero points. The scoring began in February for Orb and California Chrome, but Always Dreaming held out until his win in the Florida Derby.

Data over the last 12 years suggests connections are giving horses time in the winter, then gearing them up for the first Saturday in May. There's no need to run against graded stakes foes in January, and peaking too early is a concern.

Smarty Jones was the last Derby winner to race four times as a 3-year-old before heading to Churchill Downs. Of course, he won the race in 2004. 

Essentially, there are four months leading up to the Derby in which to make three starts. Eliminating a January prep allows for equal spacing between races.

This year, Mind Control, Gunmetal Gray, War of Will and Gray Attempt each emerged Derby prep winners in January. Just last weekend, Hidden Scroll equaled Justify's 104 Beyer Speed Figure on debut.

Can any of them buck the trend in 2019?