5 key Kentucky Derby trends continue with Justify's win

Leading up to Kentucky Derby week, I took the opportunity to narrow down the field using five distinctive trends common to recent winners. Following this remarkable and unforgettable edition of the race, it presents us with the opportunity to see how those 5 trends key to picking a Kentucky Derby 2018 winner tested out. 

For the sixth consecutive year and since the scoring system began with the 2013 Kentucky Derby, the winner had at least 100 points. In 2018, there were eight horses to choose from and for the second consecutive year, the winner came from the lowest possible spot in the 100 point club. Justify, similar to Always Dreaming in 2017, only had one Kentucky Derby qualifying points race start and win that was worth 100 points prior to the first Saturday in May. 

But, as we witnessed, and without question, that was all that Justify really needed. 

Leading into the 2018 Kentucky Derby, you had to go back to Super Saver in 2010 to find the last winner that did not score in his final prep race. That did not change this year as Justify entered the Kentucky Derby fresh off a win in the Santa Anita Derby. 

Another recent trend repeats itself in 2018 as Justify became the seventh consecutive Kentucky Derby winner that was undefeated in his 3-year-old season leading into the first leg of the Triple Crown. What makes Justify even more unique is that the son of Scat Daddy joins the elite club of overall undefeated winners that includes Nyquist (2016), Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (2006), Smarty Jones (2004), Seattle Slew (1977), Majestic Prince (1969), Morvich (1922) and Regret (1915).

What was pointed out with regard to this trend was the breakdown of the winning time in the final Kentucky Derby prep race.  Highlighted was that on only two occasions since 1991 had the eventual Kentucky Derby winner ever raced in a final prep race on dirt in which the winning time was slower than 1:50 at nine furlongs: Orb in 2013 and Mine That Bird in 2009.

For the fifth consecutive year, and for the 24th time in 26 attempts, this trend held firm as the Justify's winning time in the Santa Anita Derby was 1:49.72. 

After that criteria was presented for the Kentucky Derby field, only two starters were able to check all the boxes: Justify and Audible. 

Yet, these trends aren't the only thing out there that allows us to find the next winner, as this year also proved that all trends will eventually end, especially the ones that have lasted the longest. 

Though Justify had these recent trends in hand, the curse of Apollo was looming and he would have to overcome this huge obstacle that no other contender had been able to clear since 1882. 

So, this one has finally been buried by our newest Champion and his connections, the Hall of Fame tag team of jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bob Baffert. 

As for a few other trends that are still active but were not mentioned in the previous article: For the sixth consecutive year, the post time favorite won the Kentucky Derby. Starting out on the morning line at 3-1, Justify was sent off as the 5-2 post time favorite making I'll Have Another the last Kentucky Derby winner that was not the betting favorite when the field broke from the starting gate. 

Since Mike Smith crossed the finish line with the cleanest white silks I've seen jockey wear in a race that was this muddy, it was obvious that he broke swiftly and was practically on the lead. It also means that the early position of the winner repeated itself again in 2018. Justify becomes the fifth consecutive champion that was racing no worse than third at the 1/4 mark and beyond. 

It's also worth noting that California struck back in 2018. For the fifth time in the last seven years, the home base for the Kentucky Derby winner is on the West Coast and the state of California. 

Finally, it's a not a very deep trend but an interesting stat to highlight. For the third consecutive year, no starter from the far outside in the auxiliary gate was able to finish in the trifecta.