Kentucky Derby Trending vs Descending: Pletcher's Big Decisions

Nine more days to go, but there is still a lot that can change within this window. On this day next week we will be up to speed on the post positions, a pivotal piece of information for every handicapper, and the morning line odds for the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

However, we must go through Saturday first, and this weekend is shaping up to be one of the most highly anticipated days since the major prep season concluded.  

Trending:       Pletcher’s Big Decisions

Things can happen very quickly in the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby. One of the most pressing matters that can alter the field of 20 qualifiers is an unfortunate setback that forces a late scratch. For example, in 2014 we saw Ring Weekend withdraw due to a fever. Then, Hoppertunity that had to be pulled out when a nagging foot injury became too much of a concern for his connections.

This year, we have yet to encounter any starters that are faced with the challenge of maintaining a clean bill of health. However, a trio of top 20 qualifiers may be withdrawn for another reason.

Todd Pletcher is loaded in 2015 with an arsenal of talent. Should all five of his qualifiers start, Pletcher will represent 25% of the field. Four of those potential entries arrived in Louisville earlier this week and were out on the track for a 1 ¼ mile gallop on Wednesday.

But all we know leading up to Saturday is the following:

His top contenders, Carpe Diem and Materiality, will start. Carpe Diem will be ridden by John Velazquez and his final work will be on Sunday at Keeneland. Materiality was also galloping at Churchill Downs on Wednesday and will be ridden by Javier Castellano.

As for the remaining three horses, Itsaknockout, Stanford, and Madefromlucky no decision will be made until after they workout at Churchill Downs on Saturday. To put that into perspective no jockey’s have even been confirmed or assigned. Will it be five starters in 2015 for Todd Pletcher or just a dynamic duo?

With rain in the forecast on Saturday, Pletcher may call an audible and switch the workouts to Friday in order to assess his trio over a dry surface. Either way, the watch is trending and we should know more by Saturday afternoon at the latest.

Trending:       Bubble Watch

By default, this has now been put back into play. Should any of Pletcher’s horses be withdrawn then you we can expect the following Derby hopefuls to be lined up, in order, to take their place; Keen Ice, Frammento, Bold Conquest. Likewise, a field of 20 horses is probable due to their willingness to enter.  

As for Keen Ice, and his Trainer Dale Romans, there seems to be no question that his colt, owned by Donegal Racing, would enter into the field of 20. He’s been at Churchill Downs and training so we should expect him to be ready should they get the call.

If so, this hashtag will definitely be trending immediately: #CurlinBabies

Descending:   Toss ‘Em

My handicapping strategy favors a little housekeeping before I’m ready to roll up my sleeves and find a winner. In a field of this size it generally begins with what I like to call: Filter and Focus.

For me, some trends are worth more consideration than others. One that stands out is a horse that has yet to win a stakes race. Since 1987 only two horses have won the Kentucky Derby without scoring a win in a stakes race prior to the Kentucky Derby; Alysheba ’87, Giacomo ’05.

Non-Stakes winners in this year’s field: Itsaknockout, Danzig Moon, War Story, Tencendur, Stanford, Mr. Z and Madefromlucky. Should there be any withdraws the next three in, Keen Ice, Frammento, Bold Conquest, also fit into this category (juvenile season included).

There are two main reasons that I toss all of these hopefuls. First, it is because I have a hard time comparing any of them to Alysheba. Second, I just don’t think we will see a long shot winner like Giacomo in 2015.

As for War Story and Mr. Z their workouts on Wednesday at Churchill Downs did not help their chances of removing themselves from this list.

“To say that he is a lazy work horse is accurate”, said trainer Thomas Amoss after War Story clocked 5 furlongs in 1:02.00. He knows his horse so it is a truthful statement but it is not the most inspiring way to describe a Kentucky Derby starter. In similar fashion, steady but not enough to change my opinion, Mr. Z registered his 5 furlongs in 1:01.00.

Two other horses that I’m tossing are: Ocho Ocho Ocho and Bolo. Neither has been eliminated due to their connections to any Kentucky Derby trends. Rather, their body of work is what leads me to filter them out. Each had nice wins in their juvenile season and hung tough in their three-year-old season preps but failed to make an impression.

Finally, El Kabeir is the final horse that I’m ready to toss right now. I believe in the skills of Calvin Borel and know that he can be a true magician in the saddle but I just don’t have a lot of confidence in El Kabeir over a distance of 1 ¼ mile.

Even though I’m ready to toss these horses I have not excluded all of them from being played in any exotic wagers. This is especially true for Danzig Moon, a contender that is rapidly trending as a must play for all trifecta and superfecta wagers. 

Trending:       Top 10

More horses are bound to be tossed after the post position draw but after eliminating half the field, here is my updated top 10

1.   Dortmund

2.   American Pharoah

3.   Carpe Diem

4.   Frosted

5.   Upstart

6.   Firing Line

7.   Mubtaahij

8.   International Star

9.   Far Right

10. Materiality