Kentucky Derby: The All-Weather Track Preps
{{monthName}} {{day}}, {{year}} {{hour12}}:{{minuteTwoDigit}}{{dayPeriod}}
Handicapping
sure has changed since the inception of the All-Weather Track. What’s shifting
with it is the amount of Kentucky Derby contender’s that race on the surface
leading up to the first Saturday in May. Already this season we're looking at a top contender named Violence. If his biggest win, coming on a synthetic surface, didn't catch your attention then let me fill you in; it was a prime example. This weekend we
head back to California and back to this other surface for the G3 El Camino Real
Stakes.
So,
racing on synthetics is common. Obviously it’s because more tracks have opted
to permanently replace the dirt. And since those tracks are doing so well, this
is something that isn’t going to change any time soon. But even though the numbers
are there let’s not forget about something else that is worthy of our applause;
thoroughbred trainers are pretty good. Maybe it’s because they were forced to
but I have become impressed with how confident they are at racing their horses
on more than one surface. And it doesn’t stop there. Not only are they getting
better at establishing a comfort level with each surface, they’re also winning on
both. Most importantly, trainers are doing a very nice job at
transitioning their horses back to the dirt when the time is right.
A
few years ago it was very easy to disregard a Kentucky Derby entry that didn’t
have enough experience on dirt. Now, that is something that needs to be
considered very carefully before doing it again. For me personally, in 2011, I
had to learn the hard way that racing is racing regardless of the surface. I
was quick to discount Animal Kingdom leading up to the Kentucky Derby while a
few people around me were telling me the exact opposite. Unfortunately, I wasn’t
listening and I handicapped him solely on the fact that he had yet to race on
dirt. Big mistake.
However, I did learn my lesson. Yeah, that’s right. I’m not here just to tell you about my foolish moments on the first Saturday in May. If I do I will at least follow it up with one of my more scholarly handicapping stories. Last year I began to follow I’ll Have Another very closely after he finished 2nd to Creative Cause in the G2 Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar. I liked him enough that I went back to him the next time he raced in California. Even though he didn’t finish well in his dirt debut prior (6th in the G1 Hopeful at Saratoga) he was ready when he raced on dirt the second time around. That is when we, yes we, scored in the G2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.
From
there the rest is history. When he wore the roses last year he became the third
Kentucky Derby winner that had previously won a race on synthetics and the
fourth that had previously raced on the surface. Street Sense is the only one
of the four that didn’t win on an All-Weather track. In 2009, Mine That Bird
became the first that had previously won on it and in 2011 Animal Kingdom
became the first to ever win after never racing on dirt.
For
me, what’s interesting about this discussion is how much it has changed in such
a short amount of time. For example, this once seemed to be a very difficult
handicapping quarrel. Or at least it was for me because I was very reluctant to
bet on polytrack horses after they switched to the dirt. I also had trouble
when a horse would go back and forth between the two in the months leading up
to the Kentucky Derby. This was especially true when a derby entry’s last race
was the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. But even though Street Sense did it, he
still didn’t convince me 100%.
But
here is where my Kentucky Derby handicapping has evolved. This minor detail is no
longer an issue. I know that some horses will always favor one surface over the
other but I can also say that it takes an awful lot to surprise me. Even if a
potential derby contender is the best All-Weather track runner in the country
yet failed on dirt, I won’t be able to tell you which one will load into the
starting gate at the Kentucky Derby. I’m also not saying that racing on the
other surface is some secret recipe for success. My point is that trainers
these days are very good at transitioning them between surfaces and that how a horse trains, performs and recovers is all that matters.
Now
maybe there are still some anti All-Weather track racing fans out there. If so,
this may be hard to stomach but here it is: the best will always race just as
hard on any surface. I won’t try to convince anyone that is still loyal to
playing the horses that only race on dirt but I do support the trainers that use
preps on this other mysterious surface. That’s because I find it hard not to
take advantage of the races that present the best chance at scoring points and for
moving down the road to the Kentucky Derby. It’s a solid strategy and it’s
a pretty simple one; take what’s there and hopefully there will more to
come.
For
this reason the El Camino Real Derby gets my approval for having a place in the
first ever Kentucky Derby prep season under the new qualification system. It
has a history, Charismatic raced in the El Camino in 1999, and it’s a solid
prep for the Santa Anita Derby. Golden Gate Fields is a very fine track so I’m
also happy for them as well.
Finally, it is the fourth out of 8 All-Weather track preps that
will be raced in the 2013 season. They are:
| RACE | TRACK | WINNER |
| Breeders’
Futurity | Keeneland | Joha |
| G3 Grey | Woodbine | River Seven |
| G1 CashCall | Hollywood | Violence |
| G3 El Camino Real | Golden Gate | |
| G3 Spiral | Turfway | |
| UAE Derby | Meydan | |
| G1 Bluegrass | Keeneland | |
| G3 Lexington | Keeneland | |
Good luck to our field in this year's El Camino Real Derby. We wish all of our entries a safe trip as we look forward to seeing you further down the trail. If so, it will be interesting to see if any will become a solid All-Weather Track contender.
Saturday’s Grade 3, $300,000 Chilukki Stakes at Churchill Downs drew a compact but competitive field of seven fillies...
Lois Len posted the day's highest Horse Racing Nation speed figure, earning a 133 performance at Woodbine in...
Touch Gold , winner of the 1997 Belmont Stakes, was euthanized at the age of 31 because of...
With the Angels , a 3-year-old filly trained by Linda Rice, will try to go 6-for-6 with her...
Jessica Chapel, a former Daily Racing Form and Breeders' Cup employee and freelance blogger, won the George and Anna...