Handicapping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile

There's no time to waste so let's dive right in. Welcome to the 2014 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. 

Calculator - Breaking from the inside post is always a disadvantage in a field of this size. However, we only have to go as far back as Street Sense in 2006 to find the last juvenile that scored from the one hole. His style was pretty simple; fall back then make a late bid. Street Sense made it look easy but it will be ambitious to think that Calculator could do the same.

That’s not to say that he won’t be able to make a move. His second best performance behind American Pharoah in the FrontRunner Stakes proved a few things. He’s been tested at 1 1/16, he’s got experience on the dirt at Santa Anita and he closed well behind solid fractions out front – 23.09, 47.27, 1:11.84.

My bet: Calculator won’t get any favors breaking from the inside. He is a good horse with plenty of upside but finishing any better than third will be too tough in the Juvenile.

Private Prospect - A Juvenile from the Midwest travels to California. Is he underrated? His record, 4-3-1-0, may suggest his morning line odds are a little steep. So, where are the question marks?

Distance, so far Private Prospect has only gone more than seven furlongs once,  in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile Stakes. Secondly, his pedigree doesn’t lead you to believe that he is bred for distance.

My bet: If he breaks clean he’ll be sent to the front but won’t be able to hang on. If he gets bottled up he won’t be able to rally down the stretch.

Blue Dancer - The son of Bluegrass Cat, runner-up in the 2006 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, comes down to Santa Anita from Western Canada where he was a perfect 4 for 4. His supporters gained a big boost in confidence last time out when he scored in his first attempt at the Juvenile distance of 1 1/16.

My bet: A possible sleeper. But, even though Blue Dancer has only raced on dirt and is undefeated there are two obvious reasons his odds are set at 30-1. First is the class of the field’s he’s raced against; hard to rank them above the graded stakes starters. Then there’s his final time last out: 1:46.66. Not the most encouraging final time leading into a race this big.

The Great War - Ryan Moore does not have as many Breeders’ Cup mounts versus veterans like Mike Smith and Gary Stevens but he is just as successful. In fact, he’s one of the top active Breeders’ Cup riders. In 29 starts Moore has six wins (21%).

I mention that because when you pair him with the only other European connections to win the Juvenile, I’d say The Great War is a fearsome choice here today. Johannesburg did it for Aidan O’Brien in 2001 and his entry this time around also looks ready to make a statement.

My bet: This juvenile has experience. I like that he has seven career races under his belt and that he appears to be a formidable contender at the juvenile distance. I expect his morning line odds to drop from 12-1 but not far enough to write him off as a straight win bet option.

Mr. Z - What else can you say about a colt like this? Answer: It’s either his time or it will be more of the same. All graded stakes since winning his MSW debut with a record of 4-0-3-0. Close but no cigar for D. Wayne Lukas. So, will the Breeders’ Cup be different?

My bet: It’s a great question and I’ll answer it like most everyone; don’t leave him out of your exotics. Personally, I don’t see him winning but when you consider the class he has raced against these last 4 trips you cannot underestimate the possibility of a breakthrough performance.

Lucky Player - This horse trained by Steve Asmussen and son of the 2009 runner-up, Lookin at Lucky, falls into a familiar category. I can’t argue with his morning line odds of 30-1 yet I can’t disagree with anyone that thinks the best is yet to come.

My bet: His best win last time out comes with a few draw backs. The splits in the Iroquois Stakes were a little too slow – 24.41, 49.51, 1:14.82. Because he sat in second but did not finish in impressive fashion is what makes me agree with his odds. A final time of 1:45.76 and a margin no more than a neck means it was anything but easy. He could prove me wrong but I’m looking for a horse that had a better final prep performance. Secondly, I don’t always judge a horse by his workouts but I’m critical of Lucky Player’s four on the dirt at Santa Anita prior to today.

Carpe Diem - Daredevil - The two could not be any more identical. Todd Pletcher trains both. Each won their debut MSW before moving to the front of the line; a Grade 1 winner. And, both are pure Kentucky bred juveniles with accomplished sires that were also bred in Kentucky. 

My bet: One will finish in impressive fashion while the other will be waiting for another day. To be honest, I can’t decide but if I had to guess I think Carpe Diem will be the better of the two today. If the one that shows up gets beat, it won’t be by much.

Upstart - Challenge number one; the outside post. In three career starts Upstart has never broke from the starting gate further out than fourth. So, how will he handle this curveball?

My bet: At a distance of one mile in the G1 Champagne Stakes Upstart kicked home moderately but not with enough to make me think he had more in the tank. Plus, Daredevil was cruising and Upstart failed to threaten his triumph. This leads me to my final conclusion: Upstart might race at his best but he will not challenge the leaders in his first attempt at 1 1/16.

Texas Red - Souper Colossal - My bet: I have a lot respect with these two contenders but I’m going to skip to the chase. If you like their chances then include them in your exotics. As for me, I couldn’t find what I’m looking for. It may burn me later but I’m content with passing on their chances.  

One Lucky Dane - Not to doubt the potential of this Bob Baffert Juvenile but we saw this story last year, right? New Year’s Day came into the Juvenile without anything on his resume besides two MSW starts and one win. This year, One Lucky Dane enters with three MSW starts and one win.

My bet: I wrap up his chances with the assertion that we’ll find out more about his potential further down the road.

Final bets - Obviously I can’t separate Carpe Diem and Daredevil so all exotics will include them both. As for as any other contenders that I see winning I won’t look any further than The Great War and Blue Dancer as my live long shots. The two horses that should not be ignored with respect to exotic wagers are Mr. Z and Calculator.