Five Things We Learned in the First Leg of the Championship Series

The first leg of the Championship Series is in the books. On deck are the highly anticipated seven races that make up the second, and final, leg of the series. Once the Florida Derby has arrived, we know that the first Saturday in May is only five short weeks away. We should also recognize that the field for the 2015 Kentucky Derby has already started taking shape, but there are still more available spots in the starting gate.

If you haven’t started, I recommend you get yourself reacquainted with all of the contenders. The film room is always a good place to start so crank up the video replays, check the charts, review the rankings, and rely on your most successful handicapping tools.

Another useful resource is analyzing what we have learned along the way. Let’s look back at what we have learned over the last four weeks during the first leg of the championship series.

1. A long layoff is not a bad thing

While some horses need a little bit of racing before they can find the winners’ circle again American Pharoah and Carpe Diem did not.

American Pharoah, owned by Zayat Stables, broke his maiden last September in the 7 furlong Del Mar Futurity. He would return three weeks later to win the FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita.  Back to back grade 1 victories had the Bob Baffert trainee at the top of everyone’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile list until a minor setback set in; a deep bruise in his left front hoof.

And so, the layoff began. It may seem like a lot to ask from a young horse with only three career races but being on the sidelines for five and half months was a breeze. American Pharoah returned in style in the Rebel Stakes (G2) when he romped home over the slop in 1:45.78.

For Carpe Diem, runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a four month layoff was all a part of the plan for the son of Giant’s Causeway owned by WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stables. The Todd Pletcher trainee may not have wired the field in the Tampa Bay Derby, like American Pharoah, but, much the same, when he wanted the lead; he grabbed it and never looked back. Carpe Diem crossed the wire in 1:43.60.

In my opinion, these two performances confirmed what we learned about them in their juvenile season; serious Kentucky Derby contenders.

2. Dortmund is good

The big, bad son of Big Brown is perfect. You may be able to find some blemishes on his resume but through the San Felipe Stakes you cannot find one in your racing form. The impressive score over 1 1/16 in 1:41.65 became his third graded stakes win and extended his lifetime record to 5-0.

You may not like him, or his connections, but I hope you will not deny what he has taught us in each of his fives lessons. Dortmund is good, and good enough to own the top spot on any of the Kentucky Derby rankings heading in to his next start, Santa Anita Derby (G1).   

3. There are good losses

The term “it was a good loss” has become popular. It is a short way of saying that it was needed in order to learn a few things. The two horses that I put into this category are Firing Line and Upstart.

In his first race graded stakes race that did not include Dortmund, Firing Line made it perfectly clear on Sunday that he will be ready to test his archenemy even further the next time they meet. Should Firing Line bring what he had in the Sunland Derby (G3) then Dortmund may be perfect no more.

Easing his way across the finish after drawing away to win by 14 lengths is impressive. Setting a 1 1/8 mile track record in 1:47.39 is even more impressive. It did not take much for Gary Stevens and Firing Line to affirm their class against this field, but we already learned he was capable of such an effort in both of his runner-up finishes to Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity and Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Upstart did not bring his "A" game the Fountain of Youth (G2) but it still took the stewards to deny him the win. The runner-up via DQ finish to Itsaknockout may soon be forgotten, if he brings his best stuff to the starting gate in the Florida Derby (G1) on Saturday.

4. The Blue Grass Stakes is back

Street Sense, in 2007, was the last Blue Grass Stakes starter to win the Kentucky Derby. Prior to that, you have to go back to Thunder Gulch in 1995 to find the last horse to do it before him. It might not seem like a bad statistic but only two winners in twenty years for one of the most successful preps in the history of the Kentucky Derby is a little disappointing.

But that may all change with the return of dirt racing at Keeneland. I’m not guaranteeing the next Kentucky Derby winner to come from the 2015 Blue Grass Stakes but I can already guarantee you that more and more winners from the first leg of the Championship Series, like Carpe Diem, will use Lexington as their final stop before moving on to Louisville.

5. Some of the best won’t start in the Kentucky Derby

Unfortunately, tough decisions have to be made. Due to ongoing foot problems in the early part of this year, Texas Red has been taken off the Derby trail.

That choice was confirmed in early part of last week when his connections and vets concluded that the result of this most recent setback has left them with very little time to properly prepare for a race of this magnitude.

Texas Red will become the third consecutive Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner that did not start in the Kentucky Derby and the fifth in the last six years. However, despite missing this big event, other horses, like Shared Belief, have benefited greatly by taking the necessary time to recover and condition back to full strength.