Summing up the Kentucky Derby 2020 trail and horses to watch
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The Road to the
2020 Kentucky Derby, which made its most recent stop Sunday night when Shoplifted scored a minor upset in the Remington Springboard Mile, is off to another wacky start. But there's not too much variance in this year's preps when compared to past seasons in the points era.
There is, of course, a significant amount of talent that has revealed itself and high expectations for a number of horses that haven't so much as made their graded debuts. But there's plenty of time to earn those much needed points, with these some top takeaways now that the domestic preps are done until the new year.
Three top contenders are limited in points
Not to take anything away from what was supposed to be a "Big Three" in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but had anyone told you they wouldn't score a another point on Monday of that race week, you wouldn't have believed it.
Dennis' Moment was the first to register his 10 Derby points with a victory in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. The son of Tiznow went on to become the Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorite, but it wasn't his day. The Dale Romans trainee stumbled severely from the starting gate and never factored. While the colt escaped injury, he received some time off to end the 2-year-old season before returning to Romans at Gulfstream Park.
Eight Rings, winner of the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), nearly made one more start after fading to sixth in the Juvenile. But rather than go in the recent Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), trainer Bob Baffert backed off the son of Empire Maker, giving him extra time before a 3-year-old campaign that could open in Oaklawn Park's Rebel Stakes (G2) in March.
Whereas Dennis' Moment and Eight Rings whiffed in the Juvenile, it was also disappointing to see Breeders' Futurity (G1) hero Maxfield miss the race entirely. The Godolphin runner was subsequently operated on to remove a bone chip in his ankle, and the Brendan Walsh trainee was as of mid-November scheduled to get two months off from training.
Tiz the Law tries Churchill Downs
Connections of the fall's other Grade 1-winning 2-year-old colt,
Tiz the Law, bypassed the Beeders' Cup after his victory in the Champagne Stakes (G1). Instead, they took advantage of an early opportunity under the Twin Spires.
The plan didn't work to perfection, as New York-bred Tiz the Law finished third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). After a bobbled at the start, he was boxed in over a sloppy track and changed to the wrong lead late in the race won by Silver Prospector.
The same team behind 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide -- Sackatoga Stable and trainer Barclay Tagg -- narrowly missed sending out the only winner of two points-paying preps this season. But Tiz the Law didn't walk away empty-handed, collected 2 points and some experience over the Churchill track before the first Saturday in May.
Storm the Court leads the way
This year's Breeders' Cup payout was by far the biggest of the Derby points era, with Peter Eurton-trained
Storm the Court, by Court Vision, returning $93.80 to win. In comparison, the other $2 win tickets for recent longshots paid $29.80 (Texas Red, 2014) and $23.00 (New Year's Day, 2013).
Before winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Storm the Court finished third in the American Pharoah Stakes, which earned him 2 Derby points. He added blinkers for the Breeders' Cup, then tallied another 20 in the Juvenile.
Neither Texas Red nor New Year's Day made it to the Kentucky Derby. Next year, Storm the Court will look to break the trend of longshot Juvenile heroes on the first Saturday in May.
No Graded Stakes Race Starts
Note that in the last three Kentucky Derby winners did not make their graded stakes debuts until age 3. Maximum Security, first across the wire in 2019, didn't do so either.
So, let's highlight my picks for top contenders in no particular order that have yet to appear in a graded stakes race.
As the half-brother to champion Monomoy Girl and a grandson of Curlin, this horse is going to get a lot of attention based on pedigree alone. However, in his second career race, he also looked ready for the Kentucky Derby trail when he broke his maiden in front-running fashion at Churchill Downs.
Toledo finished second over six furlongs in his debut. In his second career race, Brown stretched it to seven, and he broke his maiden by a margin of three lengths. He'll be back this week in a Gulfstream Park allowance.
We know the silks of Watson, Pegram and Weitman, and their partnership with Baffert is well-documented. This one overcame a slow break to win a one-mile debut at Los Alamitos with ease. We'll hear more from him in 2020.
He finished second in his debut for another barn before a purchase that included the likes of Robert LaPenta and Sol Kumin sent him to Pletcher. Second out, Bellavia broke his maiden going six furlongs at Belmont Park.
Bred in New York, this record $2 million OBS March purchase finished second on debut, then excelled when stretching from six furlongs to a mile. He's headed to Fair Grounds with Asmussen's main string for the Derby trail.
It's still too early
Only nine Kentucky Derby points prep races have run with 26 more to go, starting with the Jan. 1 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct. Simply, it's probably still too early to commit to any particular contender, even though Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is already in the rearview.
Thousand Words is another name to know off his victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity, while Anneau d'Or was second in the Juvenile and Futurity. But You won't yet find horses such as Nashua (G3) hero Independence Hall and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf champ Structor -- two prominent colts that figure to hit the trail -- on the Derby points list.
Here's a closer look at the leaderboard and remaining prep races:
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