Brinkmeyer: February success a Kentucky Derby trail trend to watch

Since Churchill Downs instituted its points system to set the Kentucky Derby field in 2013, a few trends have come to define the race, such as favorites consistently firing on the first Saturday in May.

Here's another to ponder as the calendar turns to a new month and the stakes ramp up along the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail.

Until last year, each those Derby winners had won their February race; Country House ran second, though Maximum Security, first across the wire in 2019, won his February start.

Also of note as three prominent preps await this weekend -- the Gotham (G3), Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and San Felipe -- is that fewer Derby winners seem to be running in March. Neither Nyquist (2016) nor Always Dreaming (2017) ran this month after winning their February starts.

From 1994 to 2012, when the Derby field was set based on graded stakes earnings, Barbaro (2006) and I’ll Have Another (2012) were the only Derby winners to go without a race in March.

Further evidencing February winners' prominence in the points system, note that from 2007 to 2012, Mine That Bird (2009) and I’ll Have Another (2012) were the only two Kentucky Derby winners made their sophomore debuts in February. The other four ran in March. 

We're still working with small sample sizes in the points era, but it does appear the good horses are showing up in the month that was, including Holy Bull (G3) winner Tiz the Law, the current early favorite.

Here's a glance at other notable February performances to consider once entries are finalized for the 2020 Derby:

Azul Coast: El Camino Real Derby

Charlatan: Santa Anita Park maiden

Ete Indien: Fountain of Youth (G2)

Gouverneur Morris: Tampa Bay Downs allowance

Max Player: Withers (G3)

Modernist: Risen Star (G2) second division 

Nadal: San Vicente (G2)