Breeders' Cup Classic 2016: Destiny Awaits California Chrome

This week it was announced that 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist has been retired and will join the Darley global thoroughbred stallion operation in Lexington, Kentucky beginning next year. While one Kentucky Derby champion is no longer available to extend his legacy with a win in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic another is ready to make history.

Last year we witnessed one of the most legendary triumphs we have ever seen from the sport of kings when American Pharoah ended his racing career on top and amongst the greatest of all time. The Zayat Stables colt and son of Pioneerof the Nile joined the short list of Triple Crown winners when he stormed home down the stretch at the Belmont Stakes unchallenged. If never raced again, it wouldn’t matter, for his legacy was forever cemented in the history books as the one who ended the Triple Crown drought.

Yet, the super horse trained by Bob Baffert wasn’t finished. The Breeders’ Cup Classic was circled, American Pharoah arrived at Keeneland and once again he was simply the best. For the very first time we could finally use the term Grand Slam to describe an achievement in horse racing that we may have only dreamed about, but never honestly considered as a possibility. But it was real; the Triple Crown winner won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, rode off into the sunset and into retirement.

Looking back, American Pharoah was also responsible for bringing a Kentucky Derby champion back into the winners circle of the Breeders’ Cup Classic for the first time in 25 years. The last time it happened was at the end of a four year streak in which the Derby and the Classic were on a roll. Ending the splash was a back to back sequence of events that showcased the Kentucky Derby winner returning in the fall to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Leading things off in 1989 was Sunday Silence followed by Unbridled in 1990. Bred in Kentucky, Sunday Silence had a remarkable career that ended with him never finishing worse than second place over the course of his entire racing career. He is also recognized as the first Kentucky Derby winner to finish first in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the same year. Though his 4-yr-old season would start off with a win in the Californian Stakes he was then retired after only his second start that year, a runner-up in the Hollywood Gold Cup.

Unbridled was a little different, however, as he raced throughout his 4-year-old season all the way until his final start, the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Yet, his attempt to become the first back to back winner fell short. Still an outstanding career, and an excellent year of racing after his sophmore season concluded. 

What Unbridled was unable to do in his second attempt is what the two Breeders’ Cup Classic Champions prior to his first were proficient in accomplishing; winning at age 4. Ferdinand did not attempt to get there at age 3, as it wasn’t until late December that the Charles Whittingham trainee would make his first start following a third place finish in the last leg of the Triple Crown at Belmont Park. Alysheba, however, was healthy and ready to go at the end of the three-year-old season.

Coincidentally, it was the older Kentucky Derby winner that prevented Alysheba from making history. Racing four wide around the final turn and into the stretch, Willie Shoemaker and Ferdinand held on to deny a hard charging Alysheba. So, in 1987 Ferdinand became the first Kentucky Derby winner to score a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He would race again at age five but did not return to the Breeders’ Cup in 1988 when Alysheba was the one that got to the wire first. The big win would be Alysheba’s final score, as the Classic became his last career race.

Let’s fast forward from the history books back to the present and California Chrome. It is safe to say that a lot has changed in horse racing since the late 80’s and early 90’s with breeding and the amount of times a horse races anymore, being at, or towards, the top of the list. As an example of that, Darley America and Reddam Racing announced that the newly crowned Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, Nyquist, would stand at their Jonabell Farm last November.

That came after only five races into his career but Darley had decided that they had seen enough. He was undefeated and he was a Breeders’ Cup winner that had a good shot at the Kentucky Derby. Secondly, it was Darley that pursued the opportunity, and their track record speaks for itself. So, since the deal was done, and the partnership made the decision to retire Nyquist, after only 11 career races was announced.

But who is surprised by that decision anymore? Money talks and the price tag that is attached to breeding a Kentucky Derby winner on top of career earnings is what makes the decision even easier and more lucrative for the owner. But how often does it happen?

If you count Monarchos, who raced once as a four-year-old, 3^rd – Allowance Optional Claimer - January 2002, before retiring, the total amount of Kentucky Derby winners that raced beyond the three-year-old season in the last 20 years is seven.

• Silver Charm
• Monarchos
• Funny Cide
• Giacomo
• Mine That Bird
• Animal Kingdom
• California Chrome

From these seven, only four of them won a graded stakes races after they turned four; Silver Charm, Funny Cide, Animal Kingdom and California Chrome. From there, three went on to score a Grade 1 stakes race win after their three-year-old season; Funny Cide, Animal Kingdom and California Chrome.

Using the same analysis, the six horses before California Chrome combined for a total of six graded stakes wins at the age of 4, or beyond, and two Grade 1 stakes wins. Since the calendar flipped to 2015 California Chrome has won five graded stakes contests, three of which were Grade 1.

Until this weekend, none of these former Kentucky Derby winners’ started in the Breeders’ Cup Classic after their 4-year-old season. Therefore, California Chrome has the chance to become the outlier when he enters the starting gate. If he keeps doing what he’s been doing after breaking from the gate, he will then have the chance to be enshrined in his own category. 

Like Sunday Silence who became the first three year old and Ferdinand who became the first four year old, California Chrome will become the first Kentucky Derby winner to score in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at the age of five.

Regardless of the outcome, special recognition and kudos should also be awarded again and again to California Chrome, LLC for their approach to life after the Kentucky Derby for their talented horse. Since turning five at the beginning of this year the questions surrounding a suspect four-year-old campaign have been forgotten. Currently, California Chrome is undefeated in 2016 and only appears to be getting better.

Should Saturday be the day he smashes and extends career earnings and single year earnings records, then the accolades will be warranted. But if he does it with a win then his legacy will extend farther than any other Kentucky Derby winner before him in the Breeders’ Cup era.

Good luck, California Chrome, the Breeders’ Cup Classic from Santa Anita Park appears to be your destiny in 2016.