Breeders' Futurity: Back on Dirt

In 2006, Keeneland made a critical decision. The main track and dirt oval was replaced by the once popular Polytrack surface between spring and fall. Eight years later, dirt racing returns to Keeneland.

In spite of eight successful years of racing that featured optimistic handle figures and some of the lowest fatality rates in North America, the switch back to its original surface might also take us back to the days when Keeneland was a top notch place to prep for some of America’s best racing events.

I often find myself writing about Street Sense, a true legend that accomplished something that no other horse was able to do before him or at any time after he wore the roses. In 2007, Street Sense became the first Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to come back and win the Kentucky Derby.

What’s also fascinating about his story is how good he made Keeneland and its All Weather Track surface look in its opening Fall and Spring meets.

Since the Breeders’ Cup Futurity in 2006 no other entry has gone on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. While he did not win that prep race, Street Sense still used the effort as his final prep before moving on to Churchill Downs and the prize event of the 2-yr-old season.

The following spring Street Sense was once again there to make it look as though the differences between the old and the new were minimal. Again, he did not win his final prep at Keeneland ahead of the main event but he got what he needed before moving on to Louisville, KY. In 2007, Street Sense became the last Blue Grass Stakes entry to win the Kentucky Derby.

Eight years may not be a fair sample size but it’s all we have. So, it’s all I can use. In the ten years prior to the first switch, 1996 to 2005, three Breeders’ Futurity starters went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile: ’98 Answer Lively - 2^nd, ’97 Favorite Track - 1^st, Boston Harbor - 1^st.

Dating back to 1986, a sample size of 20 years, the Blue Grass Stakes produced 5 Kentucky Derby winners: ’87 Alysheba - 3^rd,  ’90 Unbridled - 3^rd, ’91 Strike the Gold - 1^st, ’93 Sea Hero - 4^th, ’95 Thunder Gulch - 4^th.

Maybe Keeneland was just red hot in the 1990’s. Very possible but maybe, the racing surface was at least more than somewhat responsible.

We can look at this from a number of different angles but at the end of the debate I feel as though Keeneland is on the verge of prepping another Juvenile or Kentucky Derby winner before long. But, how soon - will we see another unprecedented repeat of Street Sense in 2014-15? It would be amazing if one of these contenders uses the new dirt surface at Keeneland in the 2014 Breeders' Futurity as the final prep before traveling west to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But hey, anything may be possible at this point. 

While I may be pressing the positive side of the switch and what it may lead to from a prep location perspective, we still need to see that the compliments match the racing results. The test begins immediately with opening day of the 2014 Fall Meet at Keeneland later this afternoon.

Since the switch, positive reports and feedback have been pouring in as more horsemen, riders and trainers have been out on the track routinely these past couple of weeks. Some of those compliments have even come from those that were not shy with their skepticism initially.

But, in a lot ways this new sand, silt, and clay surface that sits on a state-of-the-art drainage system is hard to ignore. Its design compared to other dirt tracks from around the world represents a positive step in the right direction.

Something that you can bet will keep Keeneland honest and on top of their new surface is the fact that they are ready for something else that will be very new. In 2015, the Breeders’ Cup will finally come to Lexington, Kentucky.

If you think it felt like forever ago since the oval at Keeneland was dirt, I can’t imagine how long you feel it’s been since Keeneland finally got its chance to host the Breeders Cup. 32 years later to be exact, 2015 is set to be a very special occasion.

With such a celebration standard housekeeping responsibilities and requirements that only a host tolerates are mandatory. Therefore, I feel that Keeneland has made a promising choice and will make all of the necessary efforts to maintain a safe  and highly respected dirt track. 

For this weekend though its about the Breeders' Futurity Stakes along with four other significant stakes, including one race and one star that has no association with dirt or polytrack, Shadwell and Wise Dan. 

There's something special about Keeneland in the fall and for some reason I feel as though tomorrow has the potential to become just one of those days.