Top 5 takeaways — so far — on the Kentucky Derby 2018 trail

As we get ready to close the book on 2017, it's an opportune time to take a moment and look back at we learned from our 2018 Kentucky Derby hopefuls as juveniles.

There is still a long way to go before we reach the first Saturday in May, but that shouldn't diminish what we've seen so far in nine graded stakes races worth a total of 170 qualifying points. Here are the top 5 takeaways from the Derby trail:

I don't think anyone can debate that Chad Brown is a talented trainer and one of the best who has yet to win the Kentucky Derby. However, 2018 could be the year he breaks through.

Leading the way for him in the pursuit of the roses is Good Magic, 2017 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and 2018 Kentucky Derby points leader. Bred in Kentucky, the son of Curlin's talent was on full display when he soared home and broke his maiden in the Juvenile. Based on how Brown plays his cards, I can only assume there's a good chance of a repeat performance in 2018.

As for the path to the Derby, it appears that two prep races remain. None have been confirmed, but Good Magic will reportedly run once at Gulfstream Park and then likely at another track, either in the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass Stakes.

In recent history, American Pharoah and Nyquist are two Kentucky Derby winners who only raced twice as a 3-year-old before arriving at Churchill Downs, so this path has proved its value in the current system. Also, Brown could also be arriving in Louisville with more than one good contender.

After a pair of Grade 1 runner-up finishes in the FrontRunner Stakes and Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Solomini's breakthrough happened earlier this month as he crossed the wire in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Yet, nothing was official at that point and it wouldn't be until the stewards reviewed the final furlong and made a decision. 

The verdict: Solomini was disqualified from first to third, and Bob Baffert's other horse, McKinzie, got the win. 

But the race to Churchill Downs is still just getting started. The DQ cost Solomini six Kentucky Derby qualifying points, but he'll stay on the trail. Solomini was already back on the track for an official workout Thursday, traveling four furlongs in 49 seconds flat at Santa Anita Park.

Most Kentucky Derby winners entered a stakes race in their juvenile season. However, in some rare instances, horses such as Charismatic, Fusaichi Pegasus, Monarchos, Big Brown, Animal Kingdom, and Orb proved that waiting a little longer can work as well. So, it's never too late as the points keep getting bigger after the sophomore campaign is well underway. 

Take Horse Racing Nation's Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders for example. Readers positioned Principe Guilherme at No. 1 as of Thursday, a prime example of high expectations for a horse that has yet to start in a graded stakes race. The son of Tapit and Steve Asmussen trainee is 2-for-2 in 2017, but will not make his graded stakes debut until January.  

Other contenders that have yet to start in a graded stakes race but are ranked highly by Horse Racing Nation include Marconi, Labeq, Noble Indy, and Vision. 

The son of Medaglia d'Oro, trained by Mark Ruis, will head back to the races in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 10. When you consider his chances for the Kentucky Derby, you immediately think of the promise that this juvenile showed us when he made quick work of his competition in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner Stakes. 

After a tough trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, however, I was still impressed that Bolt d'Oro finished third.

To go in the San Vicente is an interesting choice, but Nyquist started his 3-year-old campaign with this same sprint race, so why not? While it's not worth Derby points, Bolt d'Oro will have time for two more preps afterward if all goes according to plan.

We will have to wait and see if these new paths actually lure a contender across the pond in 2018, but the invitation contests are underway. So far, two of three races are in the books in Japan and the final race will be run in February. In Europe, there are a total of seven races, and four of those contests have already been completed. The final three races on the road from Europe to Kentucky will be raced in March. 

It's hard to estimate what we can expect from both of these international invitational series, but if there is one name to keep an eye on at the conclusion of 2017, it's Aidan O'Brien. 

In his barn is Saxon Warrior, a Coolmore colt that is the winner of two Europe Road to the Kentucky Derby races. But, the biggest thing that jumps out at you about this undefeated 2-year-old isn't the horse, it's his trainer. O'Brien is a prominent European trainer who has proven that he knows how to win on American soil, sporting 12 Breeders' Cup victories.

The most recent was in November when Mendelssohn brought home the win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Afterward, O'Brien mentioned that the Kentucky Derby could be a possibility for this colt as well. If so, look for him to give it a try with Mendelssohn in at least one of three remaining races on the Europe road to the Kentucky Derby that will be raced in 2018. 

Regardless, of the outcome, if any team can handle the struggles with traveling overseas and switching over to dirt from synthetics or turf, O'Brien stands out as someone that could make things interesting.