2016 Kentucky Derby: Top Five Takeaways from January

When the Holy Bull Stakes arrives, the road to the Kentucky Derby gets turned up a notch. I am not entirely certain of the reason, but I believe the race has become a marker along the Derby Trail that is used by many. The prestigious stakes race must signify a couple of things. One is that the 2016 Kentucky Derby prep season has begun. Though it isn’t true, not before the points system or after, maybe it has just become the race that tells people it is time to start paying attention. Secondly, it must be the clear signal that the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park is only two short months away.

Since it collects so much attention, and was the final Kentucky Derby prep of January, the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park is where the five biggest takeaways begin.

Mohaymen is the New Number One

Coming into the Holy Bull, the son of Tapit had already moved into the top spot in a fair amount of rankings, both publicized and personal. After he took a stroll around the oval at Gulfstream Park, and put the field away with ease, Mohaymen undoubtedly converted many that were still on the fence.

Throw out speed ratings and anything else you want to use against him in the 2016 Holy Bull (G2) because he had more than enough left in the tank if he needed it. As we witnessed, he did not. Mohaymen was in complete control, and his jockey, Junior Alvarado, couldn't break a sweat if he tried. The performance was pure domination by a horse that appears to be ready to make a serious run for the roses in May.

The win also gave his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin another shot of confidence. We don’t always see a horse turn out on the track as good as they look on paper but Mohaymen showed us exactly what we were reading.   

Though the beautiful gray colt appears to be mature and ready for the Kentucky Derby already, there is still three more months to go. So, his number one ranking will be challenged, and there is plenty of chances for him to lose it before May. 

The Road for Nyquist Has Been Decided

Every time a horse wins a Kentucky Derby prep race one of the first questions we always want to know is: When and where will he be starting next?

It is a fair question, but it isn’t always answered right away. Sometimes a trainer does know, but may be hesitant to answer. Other times, it is more likely that the trainer has a good idea but until he/she checks with the owner, the vet, and anyone else that could offer a few cents, it is better to hold off on answering right away.

When you know you are shutting it down for a period of time is when we can only anticipate the news being released. For Doug O’Neill, the trainer of Nyquist, he has announced his plans for the reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champion and current Kentucky Derby points leader.

Similar to the choice that was made by Keith Desormeaux, for his Breeders’ Cup winner Texas Red last year, Nyquist will return to racing for his 3-yr-old debut in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on February 15. From there, he will head across the country for a potential showdown with Mohaymen in the Florida Derby on April 2.

It is an interesting choice considering the San Vicente is not a Kentucky Derby qualification race and will not reward the winner with any Kentucky Derby points. Besides that, Nyquist will be dropping back down to 7 furlongs after concluding his Juvenile season with back to back wins at a distance of 1 1/16 mile.

So, the road map includes only two races, one of which does not include two turns? If you look back about thirty years and beyond, most Kentucky Derby winners almost always started their sophomore season with a sprint race over 7 furlongs. Secondly, because the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile now rewards the winner with 20 points instead of 10, Nyquist has practically qualified for the Kentucky Derby already.

Finally, here’s an interesting stat that began a few years before the updated points system was even implemented: In seven of the last nine years, the Kentucky Derby winner prepped only twice in their sophomore season before capturing the Derby in their third start. American Pharoah did it last year, and I’ll Have Another, also trained by Doug O’Neill, completed a streak six consecutive years where the eventual Kentucky Derby winner used only two races to prep.  

So, I will just have to concede that the choice for the son of Uncle Mo is valid.

Keep an Eye on Baffert

I don’t know if I need to remind you, considering what he did with American Pharoah last year, and everything else that he has accomplished thus far in his career. Regardless, I am going to anyway, because a few other horses, including the two that have already been mentioned, have earned more attention.

If you ask Bob Baffert he probably likes it that he is quietly plotting along with a shot at winning his fifth Kentucky Derby in 2016. He did with Silver Charm in ’97 and Real Quiet in ’98 so if he has another back to back score up his sleeve, Mor Spirit has emerged as his most likely winner this year.

The son of Eskendereya shot up the rankings when he roared home to win the Los Alamitos Futurity. Speaking of Silver Charm in 1997, the tag team of Bob Baffert and Gary Stevens is back together. The only mount Stevens missed was when Mor Spirit finished runner-up to Airoforce in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. Since he has been in the irons for all other starts, look for him to be up on Saturday when Mor Spirit returns for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.

It was his stablemate Toews on Ice that Mor Spirit tracked down in the Los Alamitos Futurity, but this Bob Baffert trainee took a big step backward in January when he finished sixth in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn. I wouldn’t rule him out completely, but Bob’s other horses with a better chance at starting in the Kentucky Derby would be recent Sham Stakes winner Collected and Sham runner-up Let’s Meet in Rio. Because Baffert has mounted Kentucky Derby starters that didn’t do much of anything until February, March, or April before, maiden winner Drefong may also appear on the radar after the San Vicente.

I’m Not Going Anywhere

The 2016 Kentucky Derby prep season began with the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct. Since the winner Flexibility had enjoyed success at this track it was an easy choice for his trainer Chad Brown to keep him there for the Withers Stakes over the weekend. To my surprise, Flexibility turned in the worst performance of his career. Fourth place is not a bad way to describe your worst finish but it definitely was disappointing considering how good he looked at Aqueduct in the Jerome and when he finished runner-up to Mohaymen in the Nashua and Remsen.

Despite that effort he will have a chance to redeem himself. Right now it looks as though Aqueduct is where he will stay so look for him to continue on the path towards the Wood Memorial by starting in the Gotham next time out.

Likewise, we should expect Mo Tom to remain at the Fair Grounds for the Risen Star after winning there in the Lecomte Stakes in January. Discreetness, the winner of the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn, is probable for the Southwest Stakes. Sunny Ridge, impressive winner of the 2016 Withers Stakes (G2), will likely return to Aqueduct for the Gotham or Wood Memorial.  

Finally, all signs point to Kiaran McLaughlin keeping Mohaymen in South Florida for the remainder of the prep season so expect to see him back at Gulfstream in the Fountain of Youth, the final prep for the Florida Derby, on February 27.  

More Points and Lots of Racing Left

The Holy Bull may be the race that gets your engine started but the amount of time and racing between now and May 7 is plenty. Setbacks, upsets, horses that leave the trail and others that somehow find themselves on it just weeks or even days before the race.

In January we had the pleasure of seeing a total of 6 preps and 102 Kentucky Derby points awarded but it is all just a snap shot. Though, it doesn’t mean we may not have seen the next one that wears the roses. Since Real Quiet finished eighth in the Golden Gate Derby in 1998 a total of 10 Kentucky Derby winners have raced in January. That’s just over fifty percent and it sums January up almost perfectly; it’s a coin toss, we’re just getting started, and there’s lots of racing left.