2013 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile: Let's Do it Again

With 29 years in the books, you would think that a repeat win by a trainer has happened on more than one occasion. On the contrary, D. Wayne Lukas is still the only one who has scored consecutive victories in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

In 1986, the 3^rd annual Breeders’ Cup, Lukas scored his first with Capote and jockey Laffit Pincay, Jr. The next year he returned to win with Success Express. In typical Lukas fashion, back to back wins was not enough. In 1988, he teamed up again with Pincay to complete his Juvenile three-peat. Taking him there was Is It True.

What’s curious about these three years is that they also represent the only time in Juvenile history that a Jockey and owner have also scored consecutive wins. Laffit Pincay, Jr. stamped his repeat first in ’86 after he scored the previous year with Tasso, and Neil Drysdale. 1986-’88 belonged to Lukas and in 1987-’88 Eugene Kline became the first owner to win the Juvenile in back to back years.

Since, it’s been a rotating door year in and year out. While it may not be surprising due to the unpredictable nature of Juvenile racing, it may be unexpected to some. In particular, the fact that no jockey has been able to score in this division two years in a row since the early 1980’s is astonishing.

As for the 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, unless Todd Pletcher tabs Rosie Napravnik, the only repeat chance will belong to him.

Over the years, Todd Pletcher has been critically examined by his Kentucky Derby statistics. Last year he sent a record tying 5 horses to the Kentucky Derby, only to fall short and walk away with this unattractive record breaking stat: 1 for 37. While Super Saver remains his only win in the Derby, let’s not forget about the other 3-yr-olds that lived up to their expectations in May: Princess of Sylmar, Rags to Riches and Ashado (all Kentucky Oaks winners.)

And, let’s give him credit for how his Juvenile colts have been doing these past three years. Dating back to 2004 Pletcher has scored five times in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park. In 2010, Uncle Mo became the first to go on and win the Juvenile, and last year, the now retired Shanghai Bobby, made it two.

Will Havana bring the total to three? Or will it be Corfu or We Miss Artie that makes Pletcher the second trainer to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile two years in a row?

One of the things I look at the most when handicapping a race is identifying who you beat last time out. This is especially the case when a horse is coming off of a win. Of course you have to consider if they’ll be game enough to do it again but none the less who you beat is still important to me.

In the case of Havana, I am very pleased with the crop of 2-yr-olds that he bested in the Champagne Stakes. Before we jump to the other BC Juvenile horse that everyone is talking about, let me point out what I think about Honor Code. In my opinion, this is a horse that will be talked about a lot in 2014. Although his connections have opted to skip the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in favor of the G2 Remsen Stakes I tend to like his chances of making it to the 2014 Kentucky Derby the most.

And then there’s Strong Mandate, the horse that failed to show up against Havana in the Champagne.  I’ll go ahead and throw that race out and look for the two to be in the thick of it when they make their way around the final turn of the BC Juvenile.

What makes this matchup so interesting is that Strong Mandate’s trainer is the only one to have won this race back to back. Not only does D. Wayne Lukas have the edge there, but after his latest resurgence in the Triple Crown, he may still be riding a hot streak that will take him to the Juvenile winners circle for a record sixth time, four more than any other trainer.

While the majority seems to be pretty high on Havana I’m starting to consider We Miss Artie as a very legitimate contender. After a disappointing 6^th place finish in the With Anticipation Stakes he fired home after turning 5 wide to win the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. Besides that, who else doesn’t want to be a part of Team Ramsey? With those winning silks in the saddle it also leads me to believe that We Miss Artie will be in the hunt.

Finally, there’s Corfu, a tested Graded Stakes Juvenile that has a proven record. Quickly following his inaugural Maiden victory Corfu came back out to win the G2 Saratoga Special Stakes. From there he took a sizable step back when he finished 9^th in the G1 Hopeful. However, it didn’t take long for him to get back on track when he finished a respectable 2^nd to In Trouble in the G2 Futurity Stakes at Belmont Park.

So, what do all three of these possible Pletcher entries tell you? For me, I can’t compare it to the Kentucky Derby. Even though he will likely enter more horses than any other trainer I believe they all have a serious chance of winning. Secondly, I can’t ignore how wrong I was about Shanghai Bobby last year. Pletcher proved he had enough in his barn to head west and win. Finally, he's won two of the last three so he knows what it takes to win. If he does it again…….I will not be surprised.