2013 Belmont Stakes - The Rubber Match

 

 

New York sets the stage for two of the biggest 3-yr-old stars to settle the debate about who is the better horse.  But then again, the remainder of the field will also be racing to join that debate. So, what type of rubber match race should we expect in 2013?

 

 

There are three options. Either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes champion will win or the final jewel will be awarded to a different horse. Since each of these outcomes is represented by some very memorable years, and winners, let’s compare them to 2013.

 

 

We begin with our most recent winner, Oxbow. His unforgettable Preakness Stakes win was as unexpected as it was remarkable. But, is Oxbow good enough to join the club of reverse order Triple Crown near misses?

 

 

By reverse order I’m referring to horses that returned stronger than ever after a disappointing Kentucky Derby and won the final two legs of the Triple Crown. Specifically, two horses come to mind. The first is probably one of the top five horses to ever win just two of three jewels. Unfortunately, because he missed in the Kentucky Derby he is often left outside the rankings. I myself have been guilty of that but to correct those mistakes let be clear; Point Given was a special horse. (Don't believe me? Just ask my brother, he'll talk for hours)

 

 

After a tough break from the far outside in a 17 horse field Point Given was never able to recover behind a blistering pace. It wasn’t his day in a race that went on to become the second fastest Kentucky Derby. However, it didn’t stop him from displaying his talents. His runaway win with primary rider Gary Stevens in the Belmont Stakes validated his pre-derby hype and proved that he was a better horse than Monarchos.

 

 

Will Gary Stevens captain Oxbow to this same fate? If so, he will lead his colt to join another recent Preakness-Belmont winner that came up short in the Kentucky Derby. In 2005, Afleet Alex made a very big adjustment after tiring down the stretch and finishing 3rd in the Derby. In the Preakness and Belmont, Afleet Alex became the closer we expected when Jeremy Rose urged him to the front and they drew away to win in convincing fashion.

 

 

So, here are two examples of the horse that Oxbow can become or be compared to. But, what if the Belmont Stakes puts Orb back into the spotlight. If so, who else comes to mind that won the first and third legs of the Triple Crown. The easiest to remember is Thunder Gulch in 1995, but since Affirmed last won the crown in 1978, we mustn’t leave out Swale in 1984.

 

 

Both of these horses make an outstanding case for being ranked in the top 5 horses that captured two Triple Crown wins. However, because Thunder Gulch fared much better in the Preakness Stakes I have to give him the advantage. Have we talked about Gary Stevens yet? If not, then who else but Gary Stevens was in the irons? He guided Thunder Gulch to a solid win in the Kentucky Derby but they were unable to return to glory in the Preakness Stakes and finished 3rd. But that didn’t stop D. Wayne Lukas from entering him into the Belmont Stakes. It turned out to be a wise decision as Stevens and Thunder Gulch showcased their talents once again and became the first horse since Swale in 1984 to win both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.

 

 

Swale also earned both jewels with outstanding efforts but it was the race in the middle that puzzled him the most. Unable to hold position as the lead stalker Swale began to fade through the final turn and finished 7^th. He didn’t look quite himself that day so let the comparison to Orb begin.

 

 

Can, or since we know he can, let me ask instead; will Orb follow Swale and Thunder Gulch to become the next Derby – Belmont winner? Otherwise, will another horse in the field remind us of 2011?

 

 

2011 had all the elements of a rubber match that you could ask for. Although his attempt at wiring the field in the Kentucky Derby came up short, that same front runner style worked perfectly for Shackleford in the Preakness Stakes. In the Kentucky Derby Shackleford had no reservations, he went right to the front. While it looked great all the way through the top of the stretch he eventually caved and finished 4th.

 

 

In the Preakness Stakes, Shackleford bobbled at the start and another horse claimed the lead. However, Flashpoint didn’t realize how bad Shackleford wanted that lead. Animal Kingdom also learned that he was trying to catch a much different horse or maybe the same horse at a shorter distance. In the end Shackleford won and Animal Kingdom finished second.

 

 

Everyone wants to see a Triple Crown possibility make it to the Belmont Stakes. But, if it doesn’t happen then what better story than 2011 would you create. Unfortunately, that’s where the grand idea of a rubber match got swallowed up by 3-yr-olds anxious to take the stage. Ruler on Ice earned the leading role while Shackleford finished 5^th and Animal Kingdom finished 6^th.

 

 

So, because history, recent history that is, says that this option is very much on the table; do you think that it will happen again in 2013? If so, who is ready to steal the spotlight. Or, does your gut tell you that we will see another 3-yr-old win two of the three jewels. If so.......will it be Orb or Oxbow?

 

Either way the rubber match is on and I hope we're in for a good one.