HorseCenter: Stephen Foster preview day at Churchill Downs

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman take a short break from the Triple Crown action to highlight an excellent Saturday afternoon of racing from Churchill Downs. The iconic Louisville oval will offer six stakes races on Stephen Foster preview day, led by the Grade 3 Blame.

The nine-furlong test will mark the first race at Churchill Downs for Mystik Dan since winning a thrilling edition of the Kentucky Derby in 2024. The Kenny McPeek trainee will face a deep field of talented runners that includes Most Wanted, Post Time, Banishing, Hall of Fame and Antiquarian. 

Matt and Brian offer analysis and top picks for the intriguing Blame as well as the Arlington Stakes (G3). The 1 1/16-mile turf affair is headlined by the graded-stakes-winning trio of Brilliant Berti, Mercante and Lagynos, all of whom are coming off strong efforts over the Churchill Downs turf course.

Brian: With a potential rematch between Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza in Saratoga’s Belmont Stakes still more than a week away, this weekend’s Stephen Foster preview day at Churchill Downs will serve as a very nice appetizer to the main course one week later.

The Blame is the afternoon’s best race and has drawn a field of 10 older males much stronger than its designation as a Grade 3. All eyes will be on the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan as he looks to make a triumphant return to Churchill Downs. Second in the Preakness last spring, he fell off form after that. His most recent race at Oaklawn Park was quite promising, but the Goldencents colt has not found an easy spot in this one.

Matt: Although the Belmont Stakes has only six horses who are likely to run at Saratoga on June 7, having the top three finishers from the Kentucky Derby, which includes the Preakness winner, in the field would make the winning horse the 3-year-old division leader halfway through the year.

Mystik Dan will make his sixth start since winning the Kentucky Derby as he tries to avoid being one of the horses who could not win a race after a victory in the run for the roses. His second-place finish in that stakes race at Oaklawn was promising in that he finished second by a nose, but he did not really look like he was going to get the victory during that stretch drive. He does have every right to improve after that comeback effort, and he will need to do so to get a victory in a field that contains a pair of Grade 2 winners and seven with Grade 3 scores.

Brian: Leading Mystik Dan’s opposition on Saturday will be the second- and third-place finishers behind Fierceness and his track record performance in the recent Alysheba (G2). Most Wanted and Hall of Fame ran well behind the champion, but it was the consistent Most Wanted who was involved throughout and made the champion work on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. Trained by Brad Cox, he has plenty of early speed and has never been worse than second in seven career starts.

Matt: Most Wanted began his career with victories in his first four starts, which included the Ellis Park Derby and the Oklahoma Derby (G3). Since then he finished in second in three graded stakes after having the lead early in those races. Hall of Fame also rates highly as a consistent performer, with only two races where he finished outside of the top three and that was last year in two starts at Fair Grounds on the road to the Kentucky Derby.

Brian: Banishing is another one coming off a strong effort during Kentucky Derby weekend. His dead heat for second in the Churchill Downs (G1) might have been even better than the performances of Most Wanted and Hall of Fame in the Alysheba. This 5-year-old gelding showed promise early in his career but has really put it all together since joining the David Jacobson barn. His photo finish last time with the likes of Mindframe, Nysos and Book’em Danno points out his continuing sharpness.

Matt: Banishing is one of three horses in the field with more than $1 million in career earnings, and he did it with seven wins from 19 starts. He spent the winter at Oaklawn, where he thrived moving through the stakes for the handicap division with a win and two seconds, racing each time as part of contested early paces. He ran only twice at the nine-furlong distance of the Blame and was second in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Earlier in May, he uncharacteristically broke last in the seven-furlong Churchill Downs and still managed to rally and just miss the win by a neck.

Brian: Two horses based on the East Coast also deserve serious consideration in this strong Blame field. Let’s start with Post Time, who certainly knows his way to the winner’s circle. The Maryland-bred son of Frosted has put together a sparkling 16: 10-3-3 record to date and tipped off that his 5-year-old season may be his best yet when he strolled by overmatched allowance foes in his return race last time at Laurel Park. The classy veteran would not mind a strong early pace on Saturday to set up his stretch kick. 

Meanwhile, Antiquarian lacks the overall credentials of many listed before him, but he has the potential of a sleeper in the Blame. A son of Preservationist, he won the Peter Pan (G3) last year in New York before coming up a little short in the Belmont Stakes. Given time off, he returned sharply in a recent allowance sprint at Gulfstream Park. Trained by Todd Pletcher, he should not be dismissed.

Matt: Post Time is in the millionaire club after an amazing career that includes a third in the Cigar Mile (G2) and a second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He has never had a bad race, but he ran only once at the 1 1/8-mile distance and that was in the Whitney (G1) last summer at Saratoga. The 5-year-old seemed to benefit from the six-month break he took after the Cigar Mile. Antiquarian is a wild card in this field. His victory in the Peter Pan puts him among the other graded-stakes winners in this field.

Brian: Switching to the turf, the Arlington also looks to be an interesting betting race. Coming off a strong runner-up finish in the Turf Classic (G1), Mercante should get plenty of attention this time around after being 13-1 in both of his first two graded-stakes tries. The son of Gun Runner won the Kentucky Cup Classic (G3) two starts back over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. In great form of late, he is one of three who likes to press the pace, although this does not look to set up as a race with overly quick early fractions.

Matt: Mercante began his career with Bill Mott, who switched him to the grass in his fourth start and his form changed dramatically. Heading into his 2024 campaign he changed trainers, moved to Kentucky racing and did well on the synthetic at Turfway. Mercante did not miss a beat when he moved to stakes company this spring. He had the lead in the stretch in the Turf Classic and got passed by Spirit of St Louis, who is one of the best turf horses in the country right now.

Brian: If Mercante still lacks a bit of respect, Brilliant Berti should be the horse who is made the favorite. The consistent stretch-running son of Noble Mission comes into this one off a win in the Opening Verse on May 1. Conditioned by Cherie DeVaux, who has become one of America’s outstanding turf trainers, the 4-year-old bay is 4-for-4 at Churchill Downs. 

The horse who finished just a half-length behind Brilliant Berti in the Opening Verse also merits strong consideration on Saturday. Lagynos is a graded-stakes winner over the course and once again will have Flavien Prat in the saddle. The Steve Asmussen runner has a similar running style to Brilliant Berti but has been unable to beat him in three tries.

Matt: The Arlington field of nine has six horses with stakes victories, including one Grade 2 winner and three Grade 3 winners. Brilliant Berti won the Bryan Station (G3) at Keeneland in October and Lagynos took the Commonwealth (G3).  

Brian: Several others in the Arlington field are in with a chance, with perhaps the most interesting being Call Protection. Once trained by Chad Brown, the son of Good Samaritan now resides in the always dangerous barn of Mike Maker. Although his first graded-stakes try was a bust, his recent impressive win over the Churchill turf course points him out as a colt who has turned the corner in his developing career.

Matt: Call Protection gets a big rider change to Irad Ortiz Jr. as he returns to stakes competition from a series of allowance races at Turfway Park and Churchill Downs that produced three wins.

Brian: With a strong early pace expected in the Blame, I am going to favor the chances of Post Time for the wife-and-husband duo of Brittany and Sheldon Russell. He proved his ability to run against classy horses last year and might be even better this year as a mature 5-year-old. As Matt pointed out, he has run this nine-furlong distance only once before, but I thought it was a good effort. His maturity and positive race setup here also should benefit him in getting the trip. Post Time is my top pick. 

Matt: Post Time was sired by one of your favorite horses, Frosted. He is certainly one of the horses in the Blame who knows how to win races and always shows up. I am going to go with a different horse who will be running late from a stalking position. Banishing has been in top form with three wins in Arkansas, including the Oaklawn Mile (G2). I was impressed with his last race when he broke last in a salty Grade 1 but rallied strongly to just miss the win. Banishing is my top pick.

Brian: I have been a fan of Brilliant Berti since early on, and I will definitely include him here on a course that he appreciates. I do worry, however, that his odds will be a little too low for my taste. Instead, I am looking at Call Protection as a horse getting good for a trainer who knows how to get the most out of a reformed claimer on the grass. I like what I saw last time in only his third start on grass. I will roll with Call Protection as my top choice in the Arlington.

Matt: Brilliant Berti looks like the horse to beat in the Arlington, but like you, Brian, I will try to beat him. Mercante has a chance to get loose on the lead against a field that is loaded with grass specialists who prefer to run from behind. There is no horse like the multiple Grade 1 winner Spirit of St Louis in this field, so Mercante will be my top choice.