HorseCenter: Top picks for 3 big Kentucky Derby preps

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman tackle the final 100-point Kentucky Derby 2025 preps of the season. In California, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby features the first meeting between the champion Citizen Bull and the streaking Journalism. If either colt wins, he would likely wind up the favorite on the first Saturday in May.

With severe weather expected in Kentucky, Saturday’s card at picturesque Keeneland was postponed until Tuesday, when the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) will be run. Last year’s winner Sierra Leone just missed in the Kentucky Derby, but a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic earned him a championship. This year’s edition features the multiple Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick, who will have his hands full with a talented cast that includes River Thames, Owen Almighty, East Avenue and Burnham Square.

In New York, there is no real standout in the historic Wood Memorial (G2), but there are a dozen colts looking to punch their ticket to Churchill Downs. Unbeaten colts Grande and Passion Rules will step up in class to face a group of runners with graded-stakes experience led by Captain Cook, Rodriguez, Hill Road and Sand Devil.

Brian: Before we dive into the three big Kentucky Derby preps, Matt, let’s recap a bit of what we saw last weekend. A pace collapse was all Sandman needed to break through and earn a signature win at Oaklawn. The Arkansas Derby (G1) hero will now be one of the favorites in the Derby, where he should love the added ground but will need plenty of racing luck to pull off another big win.

At Gulfstream Park, Tappan Street got the jump on Sovereignty in the Florida Derby (G1), and that was all he needed to decisively hold him off down the stretch. It was a nice win for such an inexperienced colt, but I still prefer the runner-up as a Kentucky Derby player. I think Sovereignty got everything he needed to be ready for the run for the roses.

We also should mention Luxor Cafe, who now has won four straight after an impressive win in the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama in Japan on Saturday. The well-bred son of American Pharoah would be an interesting Kentucky Derby runner if he makes the trip.

Matt: The field for the Kentucky Derby is beginning to take shape. Sandman, Tappan Street and Sovereignty all have to be considered serious contenders.

Sandman had run well in four previous starts on the Derby trail and got a perfect setup in the Arkansas Derby after the early fractions were like we usually see in sprints. The Mark Casse runner will bring plenty of experience to the run for the roses, and Sandman's potential to get the classic distance makes him an interesting contender.

Tappan Street was my top pick to win the Florida Derby. But like so many others in the field, he has run only a few times, and that concerns me. I thought that Bill Mott would use the Florida Derby as more of a prep race for Sovereignty rather than a spot where a victory was needed.

Brian: On the Kentucky Oaks trail, my favorite sophomore filly Quietside got a stern test from the talented Simply Joking, but she prevailed in the Fantasy (G2) at Oaklawn. I think the winner is getting good at the right time. In Florida, the nice New York-bred Five G flattered Quietside by going gate to wire in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2).

Finally, White Abarrio and Far Bridge continued their mastery of Gulfstream Park with very different but equally impressive wins. One on dirt, and the other on turf, they are two of the best veterans in American racing.

Matt: Quietside and Five G are excellent additions to the field for the Kentucky Oaks, which is led by the undefeated six-time winner Good Cheer. Quietside sits on top of the Oaks leaderboard with 168 points, followed by Good Cheer with 145 points. Five G has 125 points, which puts her in third, and Simply Joking is fourth with 70. The final three qualifying races for the 14 spots in the Oaks are the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland on Monday and the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct and the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) on Saturday.

Brian: Journalism has defeated highly regarded Bob Baffert runners in two straight graded-stakes races. Now comes his biggest test yet as he takes on both Citizen Bull and Barnes in the Santa Anita Derby. The Curlin colt is the current Kentucky Derby favorite, but he must win for the fourth straight time to arrive at Churchill Downs as the one to beat. Trained by Michael McCarthy, he has not missed a beat since breaking his maiden in his second start and deserves favoritism here, despite the presence of the champion Citizen Bull.

Both Baffert runners are quite capable of ending the winning streak of Journalism, but Citizen Bull is clearly the one with better credentials. The champion 2-year-old of 2024, thanks to his win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, has run only once this year but it was a good-looking score two months ago. Barnes, meanwhile, still has great potential despite suffering his first defeat at the hands of Journalism five weeks ago in the San Felipe (G2).

Matt: The Santa Anita Derby drew a small field of five, and that means the originally scheduled Derby points were reduced by 25% to 75 points for the winner. If there's a scratch, the points would drop another 25%. Bob Baffert and John Shirreffs each have two horses in the field to go along with Journalism.

Both of the Shirreffs runners have no points. Baeza is a maiden winner, and Westwood is winless in three tries. They both need to get the Santa Anita Derby victory to be sure to run on the first Saturday in May. For Baffert, Barnes has 18.75 points and Citizen Bull probably is in already with 60 points.

Journalism has 47.5 points from his pair of victories on the Derby trail in the San Felipe and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2).

Brian: The Blue Grass Stakes has five colts between 5-2 and 4-1 on the morning line. Each of them, River Thames, Chancer McPatrick, Owen Almighty, East Avenue and Burnham Square, have flashed enough talent to believe they are capable at the highest level. They also all have questions that must be answered if they are to be considered major players in the Kentucky Derby.

The pace of this nine-furlong affair could be a big factor here, as three of the favorites have plenty of early speed. It will be interesting to see how fast River Thames, Owen Almighty and East Avenue go early and whether a contentious pace sets the table for the late runs of Chancer McPatrick and Burnham Square.

Matt: The Blue Grass drew a field of seven that is probably the best group this year if you are considering performance on the Kentucky Derby trail. All of them have picked up Derby points and together total 196 points. Chancer McPatrick, Owen Almighty, East Avenue and Burnham Square are winners of a qualifying race on the road to the run for the roses. Chancer McPatrick and East Avenue had a victory as 2-year-olds.

Brian: I like this edition of the Wood Memorial, Matt. I’m not sure if there are any major contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby in there, but it’s a field of 12 and a wide-open race. I could easily see great exotic payouts in this one.

The unbeaten Grande, Withers winner Captain Cook and the Bob Baffert-trained Rodriguez all should vie for favoritism. Not far behind that trio you have the unbeaten Passion Rules, the third-place finisher from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Hill Road and the talented New York-bred Sand Devil. Throw in a few playable long shots from Hall of Fame trainers, and you have a great betting opportunity.

Matt: None of the 12 horses in the Wood Memorial has more than 26 Derby points, and Captain Cook is the only one of the 3-year-olds who had a prior win on the Derby trail. That means as many as three horses could end up with enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby.

I agree Brian that the Wood has a field that is likely to produce a trifecta with a hefty payout. People love big fields, and there are several live long shots, such as Omaha Omaha, who could find their way into the top three.

Brian: I’ve been on the Journalism bandwagon since December, and I see no reason to jump off now. If for some reason one of the two Baffert-trained runners is scratched, it could make the one who remains more dangerous on the front in a short field. But with the Kentucky Derby looming, I expect both to run. As he did in his three wins, I figure the morning-line favorite will have enough early speed to stay close before kicking it in down the lane. Journalism is my top pick.

Matt: Both Journalism and Citizen Bull face the toughest races of their careers after impressive Derby-trail victories in their only starts of 2025. Journalism became the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby after his win in the San Felipe, which was visually impressive and the fastest prep race regardless of which speed figures you prefer. Citizen Bull made clear that his title as 2-year-old champion was legitimate after his victory in the Robert B. Lewis (G3). To me Journalism will be at 100% for the Santa Anita Derby and is the one to beat. Journalism is my top pick.

Brian: You easily could make a case for any one of the top five to win the Blue Grass. I am going to assume that there will be a strong early pace. We saw what happened last week in Arkansas, and I think we may see a bit of the same here. I believe Burnham Square is better than his performance in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and with tiring horses slowing in front of him, I can easily see him picking up the pieces here. As the likely fifth choice, I will take a shot on him. Burnham Square is my top pick.

Matt: Keeneland has a reputation as a speed-favoring track, and if that is the case on Tuesday then Owen Almighty and River Thames will benefit. Owen Almighty was an impressive front-end winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). His trainer Brian Lynch felt like he was not a horse for the classic distance of the Kentucky Derby, but he will have to only go an extra 110 yards in the Blue Grass. River Thames pressed the pace in the Fountain of Youth, got the lead and missed by a neck at the wire. Owen Almighty is my top pick.

Brian:  As the beaten favorite in the Gotham (G3), I am looking for a drastic reversal of odds on Sand Devil in the Wood Memorial. After a stumble at the start, the son of Violence did a lot of the dirty work on his way to a solid second-place finish. With that experience under his belt, I think he can move forward on Saturday over a track we know he likes. He doesn’t need the lead, so hopefully he can land in a comfortable stalking position to show off all his ability in the stretch. Sand Devil is my top pick.

Matt: We also know that Captain Cook likes Aqueduct. Since moving to the barn of Rick Dutrow, Captain Cook broke his maiden by more than nine lengths and then won the Withers. Right after that victory, Dutrow said they would skip the one-mile Gotham to get the nine-furlong distance again in the Wood. Dutrow, who won the Kentucky Derby with Big Brown, knows how to navigate the Derby trail. Captain Cook is my top pick.