HorseCenter: Ky. Derby contenders, pretenders + odds

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman dive into their 2025 Kentucky Derby analysis by discussing the probable field and early odds and deciding which runners are contenders and which are pretenders. The list is in order of their qualifying points, with Built, Neoequos, Render Judgment and Baeza currently on the outside looking in at the 20-horse field.

1. Burnham Square (Liam’s Map) 12-1.

Brian: Contender. Matt, I attended the Blue Grass this year, and I was happy to see this Ian Wilkes-trained and Brian Hernandez-ridden winner close up. He is not my top late runner in the race, but coming from Gulfstream and Keeneland, I think he will appreciate the move to the Churchill Downs surface as well as the Kentucky Derby pace.

Matt: Contender. Burnham Square is in a group of five or six late runners in the Derby field who must be considered as a serious contender to show up at the end of the classic distance. His win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass was impressive, and he has run well at four tracks, including Churchill Downs in his second start as a 2-year-old.

2. Sandman (Tapit) 8-1.

Brian: Contender. This son of Tapit is a real wild card for me. I could see him winning the whole thing or running a distracted race that leaves him outside the top 10. His consistent rally at Oaklawn has been good enough to be a contender, but it is worth noting that Churchill Downs has been the site of his worst performances to date.

Matt: Contender. Much like Burnham Square, Sandman won a 100-point prep race with a rally from the back of the field. The Mark Casse trainee ran in four Derby qualifiers and picked up points in all of them. His eight career starts give him an important experience edge over most of the other 3-year-olds.

3. Journalism (Curlin) 7-2.

Brian: Contender. This is the horse I have been high on since December, and he has only improved since then. I think he has a little more natural speed than some of the closers in here, which should play to his advantage. If you are looking for reasons to try to beat him, the small fields of California have given him little experience of what he will see in the Derby. I believe he is the best horse, but a 20-horse field can be a crapshoot.

Matt: Contender. Journalism is going to be the favorite in the Derby and is certainly the horse to beat. Speed figures back up what Brian said about his speed. The son of Curlin has all of the qualities you like to see in a Derby horse. The combination of his tactical speed and a pedigree says the classic distance will not be a problem. He will leave California for the first time, although he did run at three tracks out west.

4. Rodriguez (Authentic) 12-1.

Brian: Pretender. The Wood Memorial (G2) was an eye-opener for this son of Authentic’s potential. If he is healthy, I believe that graded-stakes win at Aqueduct will be the first of several. The problem for the Derby is all the other speed he is going to find out there with him. His San Felipe shows that he is not immune to pressure. I am against the speed in this edition of the run for the roses.

Matt: Contender. Rodriguez won the 100-point Wood with a speedy front-end victory where he just ran away from the others. I agree with Brian that there are plenty of horses who had past success while racing on the lead. The early speed was amped up even more when the connections of Owen Almighty changed plans back to running in the Derby. But there is a chance that Rodriguez is the one who will be able to carry his speed the farthest.

5. Tiztastic (Tiz the Law) 15-1.

Brian: Contender. I went back and forth on this one. His win in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2) was solid enough for me to lean him into the contender category. He also has run well at Churchill Downs. I like other closers in the race better, but he is certainly a very real threat to finish in the exotics.

Matt: Contender. Here we are again with a third late runner who won his last start in one of the 100-point races. Tiztastic did it in the Louisiana Derby, which is the longest of the prep races. He won by more than two lengths in what was clearly the best performance of his career. Joel Rosario won the 2013 Derby with a deep-closing run by Orb. Trainer Steve Asmussen won more than 10,000 races in his career, but he is still looking for his first Derby win.

6) Tappan Street (Into Mischief) 10-1.

Brian: Contender. Call me old school, but I still shy away from horses running in the Kentucky Derby with only three lifetime starts. Still, his win against Sovereignty showed me plenty as has his improvement with each start for trainer Brad Cox. I could easily see him getting first jump on the leader at some point on the far turn.

Matt: Contender. Tappan Street was well-regarded from the very beginning. He sold for $1 million at the Saratoga yearling sale of 2023 and was handled patiently by Brad Cox. He moved from a debut victory to the Derby trail and won the 100-point Florida Derby (G1). I am concerned by his inexperience but also by the fact that all three of his races were at Gulfstream Park. He could be closer to the pace than the deep closers with his stalking style.

7. Sovereignty (Into Mischief) 7-1.

Brian: Contender. His win last fall in the Street Sense at Churchill still stands out to me as one of the most important races I have seen leading up to this year’s Derby. His two races at Gulfstream Park were good enough not to dissuade me from believing that he is one of the top contenders here. Third start off the layoff for Bill Mott, he should be ready to fire a big shot on May 3.

Matt: Contender. No doubt that Sovereignty will be the second choice in the wagering. He earned that respect from closing efforts that led to top victories in a pair of Derby preps in the Street Sense and the Fountain of Youth (G2). He didn’t win the Florida Derby, but that second-place finish was all that he needed before the first Saturday in May. Bill Mott knows how to prepare a horse for the biggest races.

8. Final Gambit (Not This Time) 33-1.

Brian: Contender. Having never run on dirt nor having faced the type of competition he will face here, I can see why this handsome grey will be a big long shot in the Derby. He learned how to make one big run in his last two, but he looks like a real up-and-comer to me. He should run all day, and his closing kick is impressive enough to me to believe that he is a live long shot in his dirt debut.

Matt: Pretender. I cannot get past that fact that Final Gambit never has run on dirt and, unlike others, he had not even trained on a dirt track until recently. He is a deep closer who was last in his two victories on Tapeta at Turfway Park. There is no telling how far behind that he will be in the Derby, where a very fast pace is expected. With so many other late runners in the field, I am going to have to pass.

9. Admire Daytona (Drefong) 20-1.

Brian: Pretender. The game winner of the UAE Derby (G1) is one of several in this field who could contest a hot early pace. Whether he does or not, I prefer the horse that has beaten him in both meetings, Luxor Cafe. 

Matt: Pretender. Horses coming from the UAE Derby have not had success in the Kentucky Derby. The victory at Meydan was his first start away from Japan, and he needed four starts to break his maiden.

10. Coal Battle (Coal Front) 25-1.

Brian: Contender. Although I do worry that 1 1/4 miles could prove a bit longer than he really wants, there is a lot I like about the Rebel (G2) winner. He is clearly battle tested, having run all over in eight career starts. The Arkansas Derby (G1) was not his day, but if he can relax a bit more early, he can use that strong turn of foot to jump on the leaders while the late runners are still looking for a clear path.

Matt: Pretender. I am a big fan of Coal Battle and his three wins on the Derby trail with his gritty running style. But I did not like what I saw in the Arkansas Derby when he was unable to engage the leaders in the stretch. Maybe it was the added distance or the rigors of seven races since July without any time off, but moving to 10 furlongs cannot be a good thing for the son of Coal Front.

11. Chunk of Gold (Preservationist) 40-1.

Brian: Pretender. I liked him as a long shot in the Louisiana Derby, but now things only get tougher. Tiztastic was clearly better down the stretch last time, and I prefer several others more than the Louisiana Derby winner. The odds will be great, but I like too many others better.

Matt: Pretender. His only win was at Turfway Park in an auction-price-restricted maiden race that was followed by three second-place finishes in stakes, including the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby on the Derby trail.

12. Citizen Bull (Into Mischief) 20-1.

Brian: Pretender. The 2-year-old champion came crashing back to earth in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Not coincidentally, it was the first race in a while where he did not get an easy lead. In the Kentucky Derby, I cannot see him getting to the lead, therefore the champ is a pretender in this one for me.

Matt: Pretender. Citizen Bull faced a tough field in the Santa Anita Derby that included the Derby favorite. He was not able to control the race on the front end, and he faded badly to fourth in a field of five. The Derby field of 20 has so much speed. Plus, Citizen Bull has run only at Santa Anita and Del Mar.

13. Owen Almighty (Speightstown) 40-1.

Brian: Pretender. It seemed like his fade out of contention in the Blue Grass was enough for his connections to come to the realization that he is better at shorter distances and the Derby is not the right spot for him. I guess not. I want no part of him at 10 furlongs.

Matt. Pretender. Derby fever seems to have swept through the ownership group of Owen Almighty and caused then to go back on their decision to run in the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the first Saturday in May. I gave him a chance to carry his speed a bit farther in the Blue Grass, but he couldn’t get to the lead and faded to sixth.

14. Luxor Café (American Pharoah) 10-1. 

Brian. Contender. Of the two foreign horses, Luxor Cafe is the one who really interests me. His breeding is as outstanding as his winning streak. His farthest two races are his best performances, and his form was flattered by the UAE Derby result. It’s not easy making the trip, but his electric turn of foot in the last one makes me a believer.

Matt: Pretender. Luxor Café won the Japan road to the Kentucky Derby with a win in the Hyacinth and the Fukuryu and four wins in a row. Who did he beat in those races? This also will be his first start outside of Japan. Horses from Japan have attracted a lot of attention with Derby bettors the past few years, and 10-1 is just way too short a price for me. At best, he has a chance to get into the trifecta or superfecta.

15. East Avenue (Medaglia d’Oro) 20-1. 

Brian: Pretender. A handsome and talented colt to be sure, his return to form in his latest almost was enough for a second Grade 1 victory. The two races before that were not good at all, however. This inconsistency makes me believe he will not withstand the heat of the Kentucky Derby, especially with the other speed in the race.

Matt: Pretender. East Avenue’s big wins as a 2-year-old were on the front end, and he almost did it again in the Blue Grass in a field of seven. The Derby will be a lot tougher for the confirmed front-runner.

16. Publisher (American Pharoah) 40-1.

Brian: Pretender. Could the maiden clunk up to fill out the trifecta or superfecta? It is possible, but remember Sandman was inconsistent down the Arkansas Derby stretch and still was the stronger finisher. I like too many other late runners here to make this improving non-winner a contender.

Matt: Pretender. After seven starts, he is still a maiden including a late rally in the Arkansas Derby for a second, which qualified him for the Derby. He could not get a win in four maiden races and three tries on the Derby trail. Now he faces a Kentucky Derby field loaded with Grade 1-winning closers.

17. American Promise (Justify) 25-1.

Brian: Pretender. One of the more physically impressive horses in the race, he went into the Virginia Derby with one win from eight starts. Going one turn on a lightning-quick racing surface, he romped. It was a suspect field behind him, though, and as a horse who wants the lead, I will be passing on him in this one. It wouldn’t surprise me if he wins a big race down the road.

Matt: Pretender. Here is yet another 3-year-old whose two victories happened with front-end efforts. The 90-year-old Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas returns to the Derby, and that alone is a great story. American Promise would have to be one of the legendary Lukas upsets.

18. Flying Mohawk (Karakontie) 50-1.

Brian: Pretender. Despite liking the winner of the Jeff Ruby (G3), I am not nearly as high on the runner-up. He was no match for Final Gambit down the stretch. I seriously doubt his ability to appreciate this distance. This will be one horse with no dirt experience that I toss.

Matt: Pretender. Five starts on the turf and a second in the Jeff Ruby on the Tapeta do not make a resume for a Derby contender, although he had been training on dirt at Fair Grounds. He will be a legitimate long shot.

19. Grande (Curlin) 20-1.

Brian: Contender. Like Tappan Street, I worry about the lack of experience with only three lifetime starts. I do like his progression, however. In the Wood, he caught a wide trip behind a horse who was out there cruising on the lead. The Derby might prove too much too soon, but he seems like a colt getting good at a good time.

Matt: Contender. Grande was passing horses and running with energy down the stretch in the Wood Memorial after winning his first two starts at Gulfstream Park in long races. I’d be more excited if he had more experience. John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher teamed up to win the Derby with Always Dreaming in 2017.

20. Madaket Road (Quality Road) 40-1.

Brian: Pretender. A nice horse, but he is more early speed for the fire. I hope he runs to help create a strong pace, but I don’t expect him to stick around when the real running begins. From the Baffert barn, his odds will likely be lower than they should be.

Matt: Pretender. Madaket Road is the third-string runner for Bob Baffert. He has only a maiden win to go with four graded-stakes appearances. He was on the lead and faded in his last two starts on the Derby trail.

21. Built (Hard Spun) 50-1.

Brian: Pretender. Well beaten in his last two at Fair Grounds, I cannot consider him a serious threat in the big one. He has some talent, but at this point he does not look like he wants the distance against this class of competition.

Matt: Pretender. Trainer Wayne Catalano said he preferred a start in the Pat Day Mile for Built.

22. Neoequos (Neolithic) 50-1.

Brian: Pretender. This consistent Florida-bred has proven pretty game, but he would be just more speed in a race with plenty. At 10 furlongs, he would be a hard pass for me.

Matt: Pretender. Neoequos has raced only at Gulfstream and had a pair of thirds on the Derby trail. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. was looking at the American Turf (G1) on the Derby undercard for him.

23. Render Judgment (Blame) 50-1.

Brian: Pretender. Perhaps his Blue Grass performance was his best yet, but this Kenny McPeek trainee has had five chances in stakes racing and has not seriously threatened in any of them. He is a cut below.

Matt: Pretender. After five starts on the Derby trail, Ken McPeek said that he did not intend to run Render Judgment at 10 furlongs.

24. Baeza (McKinzie) 15-1.

Brian: Contender - Bred to be a good one, he certainly is coming around nicely for his patient trainer. He was only second best in the Santa Anita Derby, but that effort shows he can contend with the best. Having said that, getting left out and entering the Preakness as a fresh horse probably would be the best thing for this promising colt.

Matt: Contender – Trainer John Shirreffs is preparing Baeza as though he will run in the Derby. As we know, Shirreffs always brings his horses along slowly. He progressed in all four starts and in the Santa Anita Derby he had the lead in the stretch but got run down by the division leader Journalism. I believe that Baeza will get into this field.